Mortality Trends in Cancer of Unknown Primary Site in Serbia, 1990–2024: A Joinpoint Regression and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Study Variables
2.4. Statistical Analysis, Study Measures
2.4.1. Statistical Analysis
2.4.2. Study Measures
2.5. Ethical Considerations
3. Results
4. Discussion
Strengths and Limitations of the Research
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Both Sexes | Males | Females | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time Period | No. of Deaths | Average ASR | No. of Deaths | Average ASR | No. of Deaths | Average ASR |
| 1990–1994 | 2425 | 3.99 | 1395 | 5.09 | 1030 | 3.08 |
| 1995–1999 | 3415 | 5.22 | 1949 | 6.62 | 1466 | 4.07 |
| 2000–2004 | 4493 | 6.37 | 2598 | 8.32 | 1855 | 4.72 |
| 2005–2009 | 3800 | 5.06 | 2123 | 6.45 | 1677 | 3.90 |
| 2010–2014 | 3658 | 4.57 | 2036 | 5.80 | 1622 | 3.62 |
| 2015–2019 | 4534 | 5.55 | 2547 | 6.83 | 1987 | 4.13 |
| 2020–2024 | 4272 | 4.93 | 2296 | 6.03 | 1976 | 4.03 |
| Total | 26,597 | 5.10 | 14,944 | 6.45 | 11,613 | 3.94 |
| Mortality Rates (95% CI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age Group, Years | Males | Females | ||
| 0–44 | 0.65 | (0.54–0.76) | 0.51 | (0.43–0.60) |
| 45–54 | 8.65 | (7.69–9.61) | 5.62 | (5.06–6.17) |
| 55–64 | 22.85 | (22.55–24.15) | 12.91 | (12.00–13.83) |
| 65–74 | 43.94 | (40.80–47.07) | 25.45 | (23.84–27.03) |
| 75–84 | 58.32 | (52.97–63.66) | 39.93 | (36.26–43.59) |
| 85+ | 57.56 | (51.22–63.90) | 38.38 | (34.82–41.96) |
| Males | Females | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effect | 95% CI | Effect | 95% CI | ||
| Age | 0–4 | 1.01 | 0.19–5.52 | 0.29 | 0.01–7.16 |
| 5–9 | 0.73 | 0.11–4.79 | 0.62 | 0.07–5.22 | |
| 10–14 | 0.36 | 0.06–2.13 | 0.20 | 0.01–3.04 | |
| 15–19 | 0.55 | 0.14–2.14 | 0.42 | 0.08–2.24 | |
| 20–24 | 0.61 | 0.20–1.19 | 0.33 | 0.06–1.72 | |
| 25–29 | 1.06 | 0.50–2.24 | 0.45 | 0.12–1.66 | |
| 30–34 | 0.98 | 0.51–1.89 | 0.97 | 0.50–1.88 | |
| 35–39 | 1.41 | 0.88–2.25 | 1.41 | 0.85–2.34 | |
| 40–44 | 2.69 | 1.90–3.82 | 2.72 | 1.84–4.03 | |
| 45–49 | 4.92 | 3.67–6.58 | 4.10 | 2.94–5.71 | |
| 50–54 | 9.53 | 7.41–12.25 | 7.32 | 5.49–9.76 | |
| 55–59 | 14.11 | 11.08–17.97 | 10.30 | 7.83–13.53 | |
| 60–64 | 20.59 | 15.89–26.69 | 14.74 | 10.94–19.88 | |
| 65–69 | 30.06 | 23.20–38.95 | 21.82 | 16.19–29.41 | |
| 70–74 | 38.61 | 29.69–50.21 | 30.55 | 22.61–41.29 | |
| 75–79 | 49.68 | 37.91–65.11 | 42.63 | 31.39–57.89 | |
| 80–84 | 56.75 | 42.58–75.63 | 55.29 | 40.27–75.90 | |
| 85+ | 58.44 | 42.48–80.40 | 52.55 | 37.31–74.01 | |
| Period | |||||
| 1990–1994 | 1.16 | 0.88–1.54 | 1.16 | 0.81–1.66 | |
| 1995–1999 | 1.32 | 1.07–1.63 | 1.31 | 1.01–1.70 | |
| 2000–2004 | 1.44 | 1.24–1.67 | 1.36 | 1.13–1.63 | |
| 2005–2009 | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | |
| 2010–2014 | 0.83 | 0.71–0.98 | 0.82 | 0.68–0.98 | |
| 2015–2019 | 0.93 | 0.76–1.14 | 0.88 | 0.69–1.14 | |
| 2020–2024 | 0.78 | 0.59–1.02 | 0.80 | 0.57–1.12 | |
| Cohort | |||||
| 1905–1909 | 0.82 | 0.38–1.75 | 0.60 | 0.29–1.26 | |
| 1910–1914 | 0.68 | 0.41–1.11 | 0.54 | 0.34–0.88 | |
| 1915–1919 | 0.75 | 0.50–1.13 | 0.49 | 0.31–0.76 | |
| 1920–1924 | 0.94 | 0.68–1.29 | 0.70 | 0.49–0.99 | |
| 1925–1929 | 1.11 | 0.83–1.47 | 0.88 | 0.64–1.21 | |
| 1930–1934 | 1.21 | 0.92–1.59 | 0.92 | 0.67–1.26 | |
| 1935–1939 | 1.33 | 1.02–1.73 | 0.97 | 0.72–1.32 | |
| 1940–1944 | 1.29 | 0.99–1.68 | 0.97 | 0.72–1.31 | |
| 1945–1949 | 1.33 | 1.03–1.74 | 1.01 | 0.75–1.37 | |
| 1950–1954 | 1.45 | 1.12–1.87 | 1.07 | 0.80–1.44 | |
| 1955–1959 | 1.41 | 1.09–1.83 | 1.15 | 0.86–1.55 | |
| 1960–1964 | 1.22 | 0.92–1.61 | 1.07 | 0.78–1.46 | |
| 1965–1969 | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | |
| 1970–1974 | 0.76 | 0.51–1.15 | 0.70 | 0.44–1.10 | |
| 1975–1979 | 0.70 | 0.41–1.17 | 0.67 | 0.37–1.21 | |
| 1980–1984 | 0.52 | 0.25–1.07 | 0.45 | 0.19–1.07 | |
| 1985–1989 | 0.60 | 0.22–1.64 | 0.44 | 0.14–1.36 | |
| 1990–1994 | 0.34 | 0.07–1.57 | 0.45 | 0.09–2.31 | |
| 1995–1999 | 0.48 | 0.10–2.34 | 0.14 | 0.01–2.31 | |
| 2000–2004 | 0.45 | 0.07–3.13 | 0.16 | 0.01–3.64 | |
| 2005–2009 | 0.59 | 0.07–4.78 | 0.17 | 0.01–5.66 | |
| 2010–2014 | 0.09 | 0.00–4.31 | 0.19 | 0.00–11.60 | |
| 2015–2019 | 0.07 | 0.00–7.19 | 0.15 | 0.00–19.87 | |
| 2020–2024 | 0.06 | 0.00–38.77 | 0.22 | 0.00–38.77 | |
| Wald Chi-square tests for estimable functions, p-value | |||||
| Net drift | 0.0351 | 0.1032 | |||
| All period rate ratios | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | |||
| All cohort rate ratios | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | |||
| All local drifts | <0.0001 | 0.0074 | |||
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Ilic, I.; Jakovljevic, V.; Ilic, M. Mortality Trends in Cancer of Unknown Primary Site in Serbia, 1990–2024: A Joinpoint Regression and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis. Epidemiologia 2026, 7, 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia7020037
Ilic I, Jakovljevic V, Ilic M. Mortality Trends in Cancer of Unknown Primary Site in Serbia, 1990–2024: A Joinpoint Regression and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis. Epidemiologia. 2026; 7(2):37. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia7020037
Chicago/Turabian StyleIlic, Irena, Vladimir Jakovljevic, and Milena Ilic. 2026. "Mortality Trends in Cancer of Unknown Primary Site in Serbia, 1990–2024: A Joinpoint Regression and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis" Epidemiologia 7, no. 2: 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia7020037
APA StyleIlic, I., Jakovljevic, V., & Ilic, M. (2026). Mortality Trends in Cancer of Unknown Primary Site in Serbia, 1990–2024: A Joinpoint Regression and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis. Epidemiologia, 7(2), 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia7020037

