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Article

Tobacco Endgame Simulation Modelling: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on Smoking Prevalence in 2035

1
Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada
2
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada
3
Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
Forecasting 2021, 3(2), 267-275; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3020017
Received: 17 March 2021 / Revised: 7 April 2021 / Accepted: 8 April 2021 / Published: 13 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers of Forecasting 2021)
Smoking causes substantial amount of mortality and morbidity. This article presents the findings from simulation models that projected the impact of five potential Tobacco Endgame strategies on smoking prevalence in Ontario by 2035 and expected impact of smoking prevalence “less than 5 by 35” on tax revenue. We used Ontario SimSmoke simulation for modelling the expected impact of four strategies: plain packaging, free cessation services, decreasing the number of tobacco outlets, and increasing tobacco taxes. Separate models were used to project the impact of increasing the minimum age to legally purchase tobacco to 21 years on smoking prevalence and impact of price and tax increase to achieve “less than 5 by 35” on taxation revenue. The combined effect of four strategies in Ontario SimSmoke Model are expected to reduce smoking prevalence by 8.5% in 2035. Increasing tobacco taxes had the greatest independent predicted decrease in smoking prevalence (2.8%) followed by raised minimum age for legal purchase to 21 years (2.4%), decreasing tobacco outlets (1.5%), free cessation services (0.7%), and plain packaging (0.6%). Increasing tobacco excise tax and prices are projected to have minimal impact on taxation revenue, with a decrease from 1.5 billion to 1.2 billion annual tax receipts. View Full-Text
Keywords: tobacco endgame; policy; simulation model; tobacco tax revenue tobacco endgame; policy; simulation model; tobacco tax revenue
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MDPI and ACS Style

Chaiton, M.; Dubray, J.; Guindon, G.E.; Schwartz, R. Tobacco Endgame Simulation Modelling: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on Smoking Prevalence in 2035. Forecasting 2021, 3, 267-275. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3020017

AMA Style

Chaiton M, Dubray J, Guindon GE, Schwartz R. Tobacco Endgame Simulation Modelling: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on Smoking Prevalence in 2035. Forecasting. 2021; 3(2):267-275. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3020017

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chaiton, Michael; Dubray, Jolene; Guindon, G. E.; Schwartz, Robert. 2021. "Tobacco Endgame Simulation Modelling: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on Smoking Prevalence in 2035" Forecasting 3, no. 2: 267-275. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3020017

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