Next Article in Journal
Modeling and Forecasting Medium-Term Electricity Consumption Using Component Estimation Technique
Previous Article in Journal
Assessment of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts Based on IFS/ECMWF Data and Observations in the South of Portugal
Article

Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms

1
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
2
Department of Operations and Information Management, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forecasting 2020, 2(2), 151-162; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020008
Received: 7 April 2020 / Revised: 11 May 2020 / Accepted: 20 May 2020 / Published: 22 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Power and Energy Forecasting)
Thunderstorms are complex weather phenomena that cause substantial power outages in a short period. This makes thunderstorm outage prediction challenging using eventwise outage prediction models (OPMs), which summarize the storm dynamics over the entire course of the storm into a limited number of parameters. We developed a new, temporally sensitive outage prediction framework designed for models to learn the hourly dynamics of thunderstorm-caused outages directly from weather forecasts. Validation of several models built on this hour-by-hour prediction framework and comparison with a baseline model show abilities to accurately report temporal and storm-wide outage characteristics, which are vital for planning utility responses to storm-caused power grid damage. View Full-Text
Keywords: outage prediction; power grid; thunderstorms; recurrent neural network (RNN) outage prediction; power grid; thunderstorms; recurrent neural network (RNN)
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Alpay, B.A.; Wanik, D.; Watson, P.; Cerrai, D.; Liang, G.; Anagnostou, E. Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms. Forecasting 2020, 2, 151-162. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020008

AMA Style

Alpay BA, Wanik D, Watson P, Cerrai D, Liang G, Anagnostou E. Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms. Forecasting. 2020; 2(2):151-162. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020008

Chicago/Turabian Style

Alpay, Berk A., David Wanik, Peter Watson, Diego Cerrai, Guannan Liang, and Emmanouil Anagnostou. 2020. "Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms" Forecasting 2, no. 2: 151-162. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020008

Find Other Styles

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop