Assessment of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts Based on IFS/ECMWF Data and Observations in the South of Portugal
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. DNI Observational Data
2.2. DNI Forecast Data
2.3. Statistical Indicators for Model Sssessment
2.4. Cloud Area Fraction and DNI Attenuation Index (DAI)
2.5. Post Processing Correction
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Assessment of Hourly and Daily DNI Forecasts
3.2. Relation between the DNI Attenuation Index (DAI) and DNI Forecasts
- (i)
- Approximately ~19% of the days present RMSE values lower than 100 W⁄m2 (blue dots in Figure 10a). This percentage corresponds mostly to a cloud coverage lower than or equal to two oktas-clear skies days;
- (ii)
- ~47% of the days present a cloud coverage of class II type, in the range (100–200 W⁄m2);
- (iii)
- RMSE values above 200 W⁄m2 occur for ~34% of the days (red dots in Figure 10a). For this value, the majority of days are found in the cloud coverage type II category, suggesting that the model gives worst results in partially cloudy days, due to an inaccurate cloud representation or of their effects on the solar irradiance at the surface. For instance, Lopes [47] found that thin clouds (like cirrus) may cause a decrease in DNI of around 20%;
- (iv)
- The errors found in summer months can be explained by the monthly constant aerosol climatology used in IFS/ECMWF as argued by Lopes et al. [17].
3.3. Statistical Bias Correction Analysis of Daily DNI Forecasts
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Day | MBE (W/m2) | MAE (W/m2) | RMSE (W/m2) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 13.54 | 136.80 | 195.41 | 0.84 |
1 | 15.03 | 146.35 | 210.60 | 0.81 |
2 | 17.273 | 154.97 | 224.02 | 0.78 |
3 | 1.048 | 197.88 | 267.25 | 0.70 |
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Perdigão, J.; Canhoto, P.; Salgado, R.; Costa, M.J. Assessment of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts Based on IFS/ECMWF Data and Observations in the South of Portugal. Forecasting 2020, 2, 130-150. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020007
Perdigão J, Canhoto P, Salgado R, Costa MJ. Assessment of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts Based on IFS/ECMWF Data and Observations in the South of Portugal. Forecasting. 2020; 2(2):130-150. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020007
Chicago/Turabian StylePerdigão, João, Paulo Canhoto, Rui Salgado, and Maria João Costa. 2020. "Assessment of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts Based on IFS/ECMWF Data and Observations in the South of Portugal" Forecasting 2, no. 2: 130-150. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020007