Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area and Target Wildfire
2.2. Hydrological and Meteorological Data
- Moisture Deficit Index (MDI), which is computed by dividing VPD by soil moisture content;
- MDIWIND, which is computed by multiplying MDI by horizontal wind speed;
- MDIGUST, which is computed by multiplying MDI by wind gust speed.
2.3. Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Characteristics of Hydrological/Meteorological Variables and Indices at the Ignition Location on the Ignition Date for the Target Wildfires
3.2. Time Series of Ignition Location Hydrological/Meteorological Indices for the Target Wildfires
3.3. Spatial Distributions of Hydrological/Meteorological Index and Locations of the Target Wildfires
3.4. Relationships between Burned Area Sizes and Hydrological/Meteorological Variables and Indices for the Target Wildfires
4. Discussion and Conclusions
- (1)
- Our analysis showed that the ignition location grids of the target wildfires generally have moisture deficit tendencies in fire-years compared to non-fire-years (Table 2 and Table 3). Further, the ignition location MDIWIND and MDIGUST showed larger values in fire-years compared to non-fire-years for most of the target wildfires (95.8% and 91.7%, respectively). Other recent studies also reported that moisture deficits are strongly associated with wildfire regimes in the western United States [5,6].
- (2)
- It was shown that the indices that comprehensively evaluate the effects of moisture deficit and wind strength explain the ignition timings better than MDI, which evaluates moisture deficit degree (Figure 2). Specifically, the MDIGUST peak’s timing coincided with the ignition date for August Complex Fire 2020, Ranch Fire 2018, Claremont-Bear Fire 2020, and Camp Fire 2018. This finding suggests that when the risk of large wildfire occurrence becomes high at a certain location could be identified by using the comprehensive information of moisture deficit and of wind strength, which agrees with the finding of Srock et al. [22].
- (3)
- The analysis of the spatial distribution of MDIGUST showed that August Complex Fire 2020, Claremont-Bear Fire 2020, and Camp Fire 2018 occurred in the identified overlapping areas where MDIGUST becomes spatially and temporally high (Figure 3). Although this analysis did not identify the exact ignition locations of the selected wildfires, it may be used to narrow down, to some extent, the potential locations with high risks of disastrous wildfire occurrences. In other words, this analysis is expected to provide useful information for identifying the regions to be monitored for high risk of catastrophic wildfire occurrences in the study area.
- (4)
- We examined the correlation between the logarithms of burned area size and time-averaged daily spatial maximum/minimum variables and indices within the burned area during the 2 week period after the ignition date for target wildfires. We found strong relationships between burned area sizes of the target wildfires and VPD (R = 0.60, p = 0.003), MDI (R = 0.62, p = 0.002), MDIWIND (R = 0.72, p < 0.001; Figure 4f), and MDIGUST (R = 0.68, p < 0.001; Figure 4g). These results suggest that the combination of hot, dry, and windy weather and dry soil conditions strongly drive large wildfire activities in the study area. Similarly, Williams et al. [5] reported a strong correlation between burned area sizes and VPD (R = 0.72, p = 0.003) over the North Coast and the Sierra Nevada regions for summer wildfires during 1972–2018 in California.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Target Wildfires | Burned Area (Acres) | Ignition Date | Extinguished Date | Ignition Latitude | Ignition Longitude |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
August Complex Fire | 1,032,648 | 16 August 2020 | 11 November 2020 | 39.776 | −122.673 |
Ranch Fire | 410,203 | 27 July 2018 | 4 January 2019 | 39.243 | −123.103 |
Claremont−Bear Fire | 318,935 | 17 August 2020 | 30 November 2020 | 39.691 | −121.227 |
Hennessey Fire | 317,909 | 17 August 2020 | 2 October 2020 | 38.482 | −122.149 |
Carr Fire | 229,651 | 23 July 2018 | 30 August 2018 | 40.654 | −122.624 |
Camp Fire | 153,336 | 8 November 2018 | 25 November 2018 | 39.813 | −121.435 |
County Fire | 90,288 | 30 June 2018 | 4 January 2019 | 38.806 | −122.182 |
Kincade Fire | 77,758 | 23 October 2019 | 6 November 2019 | 38.792 | −122.780 |
Glass Fire | 67,484 | 27 September 2020 | 20 October 2020 | 38.563 | −122.497 |
Delta Fire | 63,311 | 5 September 2018 | 4 January 2019 | 40.943 | −122.430 |
Nuns Fire | 56,556 | 8 October 2017 | 9 February 2018 | 38.349 | −122.503 |
Zogg Fire | 56,338 | 27 September 2020 | 13 October 2020 | 40.539 | −122.567 |
Walker Fire | 54,612 | 4 September 2019 | 26 September 2019 | 40.061 | −120.681 |
Atlas Fire | 51,624 | 8 October 2017 | 9 February 2018 | 38.392 | −122.244 |
River Fire | 48,920 | 27 July 2018 | 4 January 2019 | 39.048 | −123.120 |
Loyalton Fire | 47,029 | 14 August 2020 | 14 September 2020 | 39.702 | −120.143 |
Hirz Fire | 46,150 | 9 August 2018 | 4 January 2019 | 40.896 | −122.219 |
Tubbs Fire | 36,807 | 8 October 2017 | 9 February 2018 | 38.609 | −122.629 |
Redwood Valley Fire | 36,523 | 8 October 2017 | 9 February 2018 | 39.249 | −123.166 |
Donnell Fire | 36,450 | 1 August 2018 | 4 January 2019 | 38.349 | −119.929 |
Slink Fire | 26,759 | 29 August 2020 | 9 October 2020 | 38.568 | −119.568 |
Gold Fire | 22,634 | 20 July 2020 | 12 August 2020 | 41.110 | −120.923 |
Helena Fire | 18,709 | 31 August 2017 | 9 January 2018 | 40.760 | −123.100 |
Pocket Fire | 17,357 | 9 October 2017 | 9 February 2018 | 38.765 | −122.909 |
Target Wildfires | Burned Area (Acres) | Vapor Pressure Deficit [hPa] | Ratio (%) | Soil Moisture (%) | Ratio (%) | Horizontal Wind Speed (m s−1) | Ratio (%) | Wind Gust Speed (m s−1) | Ratio (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
August Complex Fire | 1,032,648 | 28.76 | 123.45 | 0.115 | 67.16 | 2.35 | 141.91 | 3.60 | 218.90 |
Ranch Fire | 410,203 | 25.21 | 112.96 | 0.137 | 78.58 | 2.37 | 120.32 | 3.24 | 161.84 |
Claremont-Bear Fire | 318,935 | 27.34 | 128.25 | 0.128 | 89.76 | 2.75 | 114.54 | 3.67 | 162.41 |
Hennessey Fire | 317,909 | 31.17 | 214.30 | 0.122 | 99.15 | 1.62 | 64.70 | 1.67 | 66.23 |
Carr Fire | 229,651 | 26.22 | 114.09 | 0.128 | 80.25 | 1.80 | 77.49 | 1.55 | 50.18 |
Camp Fire | 153,336 | 11.42 | 252.97 | 0.121 | 64.04 | 5.12 | 172.54 | 8.16 | 152.36 |
County Fire | 90,288 | 30.45 | 126.62 | 0.188 | 92.02 | 2.44 | 127.86 | 2.76 | 120.72 |
Kincade Fire | 77,758 | 27.99 | 362.90 | 0.120 | 84.99 | 3.76 | 255.03 | 6.89 | 364.10 |
Glass Fire | 67,484 | 20.36 | 158.83 | 0.126 | 81.09 | 2.79 | 163.06 | 4.44 | 215.93 |
Delta Fire | 63,311 | 22.47 | 130.53 | 0.082 | 69.55 | 2.07 | 87.37 | 2.80 | 86.05 |
Nuns Fire | 56,556 | 21.79 | 179.27 | 0.207 | 104.24 | 5.34 | 265.42 | 9.62 | 433.16 |
Zogg Fire | 56,338 | 18.72 | 97.58 | 0.126 | 87.14 | 3.61 | 192.35 | 7.66 | 277.40 |
Walker Fire | 54,612 | 14.25 | 98.88 | 0.060 | 69.18 | 1.07 | 52.32 | 2.98 | 83.76 |
Atlas Fire | 51,624 | 21.00 | 153.37 | 0.091 | 99.89 | 6.56 | 311.03 | 11.70 | 484.32 |
River Fire | 48,920 | 22.27 | 103.62 | 0.130 | 76.56 | 2.22 | 120.12 | 3.22 | 145.82 |
Loyalton Fire | 47,029 | 16.36 | 97.71 | 0.139 | 83.60 | 3.04 | 131.65 | 3.42 | 121.98 |
Hirz Fire | 46,150 | 32.66 | 138.43 | 0.116 | 74.06 | 1.54 | 90.28 | 2.04 | 89.34 |
Tubbs Fire | 36,807 | 21.61 | 164.91 | 0.150 | 102.03 | 4.87 | 261.89 | 9.57 | 456.60 |
Redwood Valley Fire | 36,523 | 18.69 | 157.03 | 0.142 | 102.73 | 3.20 | 165.77 | 4.70 | 189.12 |
Donnell Fire | 36,450 | 15.73 | 115.93 | 0.192 | 89.38 | 2.55 | 107.80 | 2.66 | 96.35 |
Slink Fire | 26,759 | 13.88 | 100.15 | 0.197 | 101.51 | 2.76 | 97.79 | 2.49 | 53.16 |
Gold Fire | 22,634 | 24.28 | 147.03 | 0.160 | 99.82 | 2.49 | 97.92 | 2.96 | 79.28 |
Helena Fire | 18,709 | 29.55 | 191.36 | 0.126 | 107.71 | 1.72 | 99.48 | 1.75 | 70.85 |
Pocket Fire | 17,357 | 15.36 | 127.74 | 0.138 | 99.03 | 1.38 | 82.84 | 1.73 | 83.47 |
Target Wildfires | Burned Area (Acres) | MDI (hPa) | Ratio (%) | MDIWIND (hPa m s−1) | Ratio (%) | MDIGUST (hPa m s−1) | Ratio (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
August Complex Fire | 1,032,648 | 251.12 | 181.75 | 689.41 | 258.95 | 1163.61 | 449.75 |
Ranch Fire | 410,203 | 184.43 | 142.60 | 449.78 | 161.64 | 627.40 | 226.94 |
Claremont-Bear Fire | 318,935 | 213.80 | 141.52 | 584.40 | 162.45 | 883.62 | 250.60 |
Hennessey Fire | 317,909 | 254.67 | 212.94 | 363.33 | 108.10 | 413.25 | 114.27 |
Carr Fire | 229,651 | 205.12 | 143.08 | 398.40 | 118.64 | 342.16 | 74.75 |
Camp Fire | 153,336 | 94.19 | 378.28 | 468.40 | 839.02 | 772.60 | 1021.12 |
County Fire | 90,288 | 161.62 | 133.22 | 448.32 | 189.40 | 505.13 | 177.86 |
Kincade Fire | 77,758 | 234.25 | 402.39 | 893.63 | 991.89 | 1665.33 | 1667.50 |
Glass Fire | 67,484 | 161.90 | 192.95 | 527.13 | 322.17 | 910.47 | 464.44 |
Delta Fire | 63,311 | 274.03 | 186.33 | 630.44 | 186.15 | 901.47 | 191.67 |
Nuns Fire | 56,556 | 105.47 | 173.97 | 563.86 | 372.21 | 986.66 | 600.56 |
Zogg Fire | 56,338 | 148.61 | 104.98 | 505.38 | 190.91 | 1113.06 | 334.52 |
Walker Fire | 54,612 | 236.66 | 130.07 | 301.53 | 72.79 | 898.50 | 131.15 |
Atlas Fire | 51,624 | 230.13 | 154.21 | 1520.95 | 419.85 | 2593.35 | 645.94 |
River Fire | 48,920 | 171.85 | 134.49 | 431.45 | 160.31 | 592.11 | 217.68 |
Loyalton Fire | 47,029 | 117.70 | 113.74 | 447.49 | 154.31 | 529.74 | 144.75 |
Hirz Fire | 46,150 | 280.96 | 185.98 | 469.02 | 182.74 | 585.65 | 172.26 |
Tubbs Fire | 36,807 | 143.71 | 163.51 | 690.65 | 350.05 | 1294.55 | 597.46 |
Redwood Valley Fire | 36,523 | 131.60 | 153.87 | 430.17 | 253.28 | 622.89 | 308.12 |
Donnell Fire | 36,450 | 81.94 | 128.24 | 243.79 | 135.24 | 256.76 | 122.56 |
Slink Fire | 26,759 | 70.62 | 98.04 | 201.82 | 104.37 | 196.66 | 53.50 |
Gold Fire | 22,634 | 151.42 | 147.51 | 458.43 | 151.44 | 502.67 | 120.39 |
Helena Fire | 18,709 | 234.68 | 174.20 | 413.19 | 146.12 | 483.70 | 125.54 |
Pocket Fire | 17,357 | 111.48 | 130.10 | 195.27 | 115.54 | 231.50 | 114.92 |
MDI (hPa) | MDIWIND (hPa m s−1) | MDIGUST (hPa m s−1) | |
---|---|---|---|
1. Average value for wildfires > 50,000 acres (standard deviation) | 196.86 (55.83) | 596.07 (304.8) | 984.04 (573.22) |
2. Average value for wildfires < 50,000 acres (standard deviation) | 149.60 (65.52) | 398.13 (150.0) | 529.62 (312.32) |
Ratio of increase from 2 to 1 (%) | 31.6 | 49.7 | 85.8 |
p-value in the difference between 1 and 2 | p = 0.082 | p = 0.048 | p = 0.021 |
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Hiraga, Y.; Kavvas, M.L. Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020. Fire 2021, 4, 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4040090
Hiraga Y, Kavvas ML. Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020. Fire. 2021; 4(4):90. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4040090
Chicago/Turabian StyleHiraga, Yusuke, and M. Levent Kavvas. 2021. "Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020" Fire 4, no. 4: 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4040090