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Brief Report

The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India

by
Malaisamy Muniyandi
*,
Karikalan Nagarajan
,
Kavi Mathiyazhagan
,
Prathiksha Giridharan
,
Kannan Thiruvengadam
and
Rajendran Krishnan
ICMR-National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai 60031, India
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2024, 9(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed9010012
Submission received: 9 November 2023 / Revised: 12 December 2023 / Accepted: 21 December 2023 / Published: 4 January 2024
(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19: Current Situation and Future Trends)

Abstract

:
Objective: To estimate the prevalence and incidence of TB before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Tamil Nadu, south India. Methods: In the present study, the effect of COVID-19 epidemiology on the TB epidemic was assessed by the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered), a compartmental epidemiological model. The model input parameters on compartments of TB and incidence of COVID-19 were collected from the published literature. Based on the data collected, point prevalence and incidence of TB per 100,000 population is calculated with and without COVID-19. A prediction was conducted up to 2025, trend analysis was performed, and a trend chi-square test and chi-square test of independence were used to test the difference between the prevalence with and without COVID-19. R software 2000 (R 4.0.0) was used for analysis. Results: The TB prevalence without and with COVID-19 decreases from 289 in 2020 to 271 in 2025 and from 289 in 2020 to 269 in 2025, respectively. Similarly, the incidence of TB was decreasing from 144 in 2020 to 135 in 2025 without COVID-19 and 143 in 2020 to 134 in 2025 with COVID-19. Though the TB burden is decreasing over the years, the trend was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). With respect to the district level, the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 is also found to be decreasing over the years. It was also found that the difference in the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 was not statically significant. Conclusion: The results of our study shows that there was an annual decline of around 2% from 2020 to 2025 in the trend of the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19. Overall, there is a reduction, but it was not significant, and there is no significant effect of COVID-19 on TB in Tamil Nadu.

1. Introduction

The new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a major source of disaster in the 21st century, and it has caused enormous health, demographic, economic, and social impacts [1]. The global spread of COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented response from public health officials, governments, and individuals around the world. It includes measures such as travel restrictions, quarantine, social distancing, and vaccination campaigns being implemented in an attempt to slow down and control the spread of the virus. Many aspects of public health, particularly efforts to prevent and control tuberculosis (TB), were impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic. This has caused a shift in economic and political priorities towards COVID-19 containment, leading to a potential decrease in efforts to tackle TB [1].
Any connection between COVID-19 and TB is especially important for the Indian public health system because India is one of the main contributors to the burden of tuberculosis, with the greatest number of cases globally [2]. India has a significant number of people with a latent TB infection (LTBI) and a large burden of active TB cases, making it a major concern for public health. Social and economic factors have a significant impact on tuberculosis epidemiology, making prevention, treatment, and control more difficult [3]. The significant temporary alterations that could impact the TB epidemiology are lockdown-related disruptions such as pre-care-seeking patient delay, transportation of the heath facilities, delay in treatment completion, reduced laboratory capacity and health care staff, drug stock outs, supply interruptions, and usage of TB diagnostic tools for COVID-19. Additionally, it prevented undernutrition in the impoverished, lockdown-induced under-detection of active TB, and poverty that was exacerbated by transmission [4].
The World Health Organization (WHO) has provided guidance on how to address the impact of COVID-19 on TB [5]. WHO suggests leveraging the expertise of National TB Elimination Programmes (NTEP) for rapid testing and contact tracing for COVID-19 response. The use of digital technologies for remote care and support for people with TB is also encouraged. In response to the pandemic, public health officials and governments have implemented a range of measures in an effort to prevent the virus’s spread and mitigate its impact, including travel restrictions, quarantine and isolation, social distancing, masks and personal protective equipment, testing and contact tracing, and vaccination campaigns. These changes might have helped in the reduction of TB transmission.
Lockdowns and times of high COVID-19 incidence and hospital saturation have been linked to a decrease in the case notification ratio, which is the main and immediate effect of COVID-19 spreading onto TB transmission dynamics [6]. We estimate that even before the more complicated and unpredictable consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB management and transmission dynamics can be properly defined, this disruption alone will cause an increase in the TB burden in the coming years. For instance, sharp declines in the laboratory capacity required to enable a tuberculosis diagnosis are anticipated, as well as disruptions in the drug supply, which may lead to drug shortages and postpone the commencement of treatments until the supply chain is restored [7,8]. Although these measures have had significant impacts on the TB reduction rate, simultaneously, they have also had impact on the TB increase rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. In line with this, the current study aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 on the TB epidemic in Tamil Nadu using the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered), a compartmental epidemiological model.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

Our study focuses on all districts of Tamil Nadu to assess the impact of COVID-19 on TB in Tamil Nadu, which is the tenth-largest state by area and the sixth-most populated state in India.

2.2. Study Population

The current study focuses on TB among the adult population (people who are 18 years of age or older) in Tamil Nadu.

2.3. Study Design

We used a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the prevalence and incidence of TB before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in all districts of Tamil Nadu. In this model, we have used the compartmental model SEIR, which is an extended version of the SIR model. The SIR model is a commonly used compartmental model that consists of three compartments, namely, (1) susceptible, (2) infected, and (3) recovered [9]. The SIR model uses a set of differential equations that consider the rates of infection, recovery, and death in order to analyze the dynamics of disease transmission. In the present study, we have further developed the SIR model by adding two more compartments, namely, (4) latent TB and (5) treatment for TB (Figure 1). For the SIR model with COVID-19, we have added two additional parameters, such as (1) lockdown ( σ ) and (2) mask utilization ( σ 1) to assess their impact on the TB burden. This has been added in the diagram below. From the active, infectious disease compartment, the two parameters lockdown and mask utilization have decreased with respect to their proportion.
The ordinary differential equations, which represent the extended SIR model (SEIR) with the impact of COVID-19, used in this study are:
d S d t = α × S β × S + θ × R + π × N ω × S
d L d t = α × S λ × L ω × L
d I d t = β × S + λ × L δ δ × I + γ × T ω × I ω 1 × I ( σ × I σ 1 × I )
d T d t = δ × I ω × T ω 1 × T γ × T ( ε × T )
d R d t = ( ε × T ) θ × R ω × R .
The two mathematical models are used to estimate the prevalence and incidence over the period 2017–2025 (without COVID-19) and 2020–2025 (with COVID-19). For the analysis, R software 2000 (R 4.0.0) is used. This model is modified by adding exposed and treatment compartments to account for a change in the overall population.

2.4. Input Parameter

Table 1 shows the input parameters used in the SEIR model. The parameters are uninfected to latent progression (α) [10], new susceptible ( π ) [11], uninfected to active infection (β) [12], latent progression to active infection (λ) [13], active infection to treatment (δ) [14], treatment to active infection (γ) [15], treatment to recovered (ε) [11], recovered to uninfected (θ), all-cause mortality ( ω ) 10 , TB mortality ( ω 1) [11], lockdown ( σ ) , and mask utilization ( σ 1). The values of these parameters were collected from the published literature.

2.5. Data Collection

2.5.1. TB Prevalence

The prevalence of TB has been collected over the period 2017 to 2021. The data was collected with a focus on various factors, including the study area (rural or urban), study setting (national survey, community survey, and household survey), sample size, and the method used to diagnose TB (culture or smear) [9,10,11,16]. The TB period prevalence of 301 per 100,000 population is considered as the baseline for the year 2017 [8].

2.5.2. TB Incidence

Similarly, the incidences of TB in Tamil Nadu were collected from various published literature. The data were collected with a focus on the study area, study design (prospective cohort, community survey, household survey, and national survey), and sample size [17,18,19].

2.5.3. COVID-19

Data on confirmed, recovered, and death due to COVID-19 in Tamil Nadu from March 2020 to November 2022 were collected from the Health and Family Welfare Department, Government of Tamil Nadu, Stop Corona TN site [20]. These data were analyzed to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the state of Tamil Nadu and their possible impact on TB.

2.5.4. Mortality

Our study involved collecting data on the mortality due to TB in Tamil Nadu. The data were collected from the different sources, such as Statista and NTEP report of 2021. The data collection process involved analyzing the TB mortality rate in both rural and urban areas [21].

2.5.5. Mask Utilization

Several studies have found that the use of masks can significantly reduce the transmission of TB [22,23]. It was also recommended that the patients with infectious TB wear a mask to prevent TB transmission in the community [24]. However, it should be noted that it cannot be assumed that all household contacts wear masks at all times. As a result, this study has assumed a marginal impact on transmission probability of 0.005.

2.6. Data Analysis

In this study, SEIR was used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of TB before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The model was developed from the basic framework of the SIR model. The extended SEIR model is derived to reflect the epidemiological conditions and respective care cascades in Tamil Nadu, both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

2.7. SEIR Model for TB Prevalence

Based on actual data, we estimated the prevalence over the period from 2017 to 2025 before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparing the prevalence rates between these two time periods with and without COVID-19, the difference in prevalence was quantified. Additionally, the prevalence has been predicted for all districts of Tamil Nadu in the same period. The following formula is used to calculate the prevalence:
Prevalence   of   nth   year = Infection   of   n t h   year   +   Infection   of   ( n 1 ) th   year T o t a l   P o p u l a t i o n   o f   n t h   y e a r 100,000 .
We have derived six ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for the SEIR model that can be implemented to present the impact of the period before and during COVID-19 on TB. The prevalence rate was calculated per 100,000 population from the outputs of total population, susceptible cases, latent progression, active infectious cases, treatment, recovery, and mortality (Table 2) for the SEIR model.

2.8. Impact of COVID-19 on Prevalence and Incidence

To find the impact of COVID-19 on TB prevalence and incidence in Tamil Nadu, we included a marginal presumption of mask utilization and social distance as an intervention of COVID-19 in this model during the years 2020 to 2025.

2.9. SEIR Model for TB Incidence

Using the SEIR model, we estimated the incidence without COVID-19 for the period from 2017 to 2025 and with COVID-19 for the period from 2020 to 2025. The calculated incidence rate was derived from the model output. It was measured as the number of cases per 100,000 population. The below formula is used to calculate TB incidence by using the SEIR model.
Incidence   of   nth   year = I n f e c t i o n   o f   n t h   y e a r T o t a l   P o p u l a t i o n   o f   n t h   y e a r 100,000

3. Results

3.1. SEIR Model Values for with and without the Impact of COVID-19

Using the SEIR model, the values for the total population greater than 18 years of age, total susceptible cases, patients with LTBI, patients with active TB infection, patients who undergo treatment, patients recovered after the treatment, and mortality due to TB are estimated for with and without the impact of COVID-19 (Table 2). The total population is increasing as the year increases. As SEIR is a compartmental model, patients are moving from one compartment to another. Approximately 71% of the patients from the total population are moving to the susceptible population. Around 40% of the patients from the susceptible population are moving to the LTBI compartment, 0.5% of the LTBI patients are moving to the active TB compartment, and 83% of the patients are moving from the active TB infection compartment to recovery compartment. Among the patients from the active TB compartment, 13% are moving to the TB mortality compartment.

3.2. Prevalence of TB without the Impact of COVID-19

Table 3 shows the prevalence of TB with and without the impact of COVID-19 calculated for the years 2017 to 2025 using the model parameters. The highest prevalence without the impact of COVID-19 is found to be 289 in the year 2020, ranging from 271 to 289 per 100,000 population. The prevalence gradually decreases over the years from 2017 to 2025 (Figure 2). The rate of reduction is found to be similar in all the years. The test showed that there is no significant difference between the TB prevalence over the years without the impact of COVID-19. Figure 3 shows the observed and estimated prevalence of TB per 100,000 population for with and without COVID-19.

3.3. Prevalence of TB with the Impact of COVID-19

The highest prevalence with the impact of COVID-19 is found to be 289 in the year 2020, ranging from 269 in 2025 from 289 in 2020. With COVID-19, the prevalence gradually decreases from 289 to 269 over the years 2020–2025. Though the prevalence is lower with the impact of COVID-19, there is no statistically significant difference between with and without the impact of COVID-19 (p = 0.314).

3.4. Incidence of TB without the Impact of COVID-19

Table 4 shows the incidence of TB with and without the impact of COVID-19. The highest incidence of TB with the impact of COVID-19 is found to be 143 in 2020, ranging from 134 in 2025 to 143 in 2025. Similar to prevalence, incidence is also showing a decline over the years. The incidence of TB with the impact of COVID-19 is comparatively less than the incidence of TB without the impact of COVID-19. This is visualized in a graph in Figure 4. The difference in the reduction rate gradually increases over the years from 0.598 to 0.877 per 100,000 population.

3.5. Incidence of TB with the Impact of COVID-19

Table 4 gives the incidence of TB with the impact of COVID-19. The incidence is found to be highest in the year 2020 (143), ranging from 134 in 2025 to 143 in 2020. The prevalence of TB with COVID-19 is found to be comparatively lower than the prevalence of TB without COVID-19. Though there is a reduction, the test showed that there is no significant difference between the TB incidences over the years with the impact of COVID-19.

3.6. District-Wise Prevalence of TB without the Impact of COVID-19

Table 5 shows the overall, the district-wise prevalence also decreases over the years. The lowest and highest prevalence is found to be 183 in Perambalur and 323 in Chennai in the year 2025 and 2020, respectively. The lowest prevalence is found to be in 183 in Perambalur in the year 2025. The second highest prevalence is 311 in Vellore.

3.7. District-Wise Prevalence of TB with the Impact of COVID-19

The prevalence with the impact of COVID-19 is found to be very high in Chennai, ranging from 144 to 154. It is followed by Vellore, ranging from 139 to 148. The lowest prevalence without the impact of COVID-19 is found in the district Nilgiris, ranging from 84 to 93 per 100,000 population. When compared to the prevalence rates without the impact of COVID-19, the prevalence in districts with the impact of COVID-19 is low.

3.8. District-Wise Incidence of TB without the Impact of COVID-19

Table 6 displays the district-wise incidence of TB with and without the impact of COVID-19. Without the impact of COVID-19, the incidence of TB is found to be very high in Chennai, ranging from 145 in 2020 to 161 in 2025. The lowest prevalence is found in the district Perambalur, ranging from 91 to 101. The second highest prevalent district is found to be Vellore, ranging from 140 to 155, followed by Kanchipuram. The lowest incidence without the impact of COVID-19 is found to be 91 in Perambalur in the year 2022.

3.9. District-Wise Incidence of TB with the Impact of COVID-19

The lowest incidence of TB with the impact of COVID-19 found in the district Nilgiris is 84 in the year 2025. The highest incidence is 154 in Chennai in 2020, ranging from 144 in 2025 to 154 in 2025. The incidence of TB with the impact of COVID-19 is found to be comparatively less than the incidence of TB without the impact of COVID-19, though the difference is not significance.

4. Discussion

The salient finding from this study was that, overall, the prevalence and incidence of TB is in a declining trend during 2017 to 2025 in Tamil Nadu. We have attempted to study the impact of COVID-19 on the TB burden in terms of prevalence and incidence. We found that there is no negative impact due to COVID-19 on the TB burden in Tamil Nadu. However, it was estimated that there is a positive impact on the declining trend of the TB burden during COVID-19 in Tamil Nadu. This declining trend might be a result due to the COVID-19 preventive measures, such as mask utilization, lockdowns, and social distancing.
Our study substantiates the findings of other studies that the use of masks significantly reduced the transmission of TB among children and household contacts and MDR-TB among hospital wards. There are studies that reported a positive trend of TB has been reversed due to the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. They expected that the unintended consequences of COVID-19 preventive measures such as restriction and reduced access to healthcare resulted in a drop in access to TB services [25]. The predictive models have also reported that the negative impact of COVID-19 on TB is much larger [26]. The other important issue is that during COVID-19, high deaths due to TB were reported globally [27]. The reason reported is the reduced access to TB care. However, our estimates showed that there is no negative impact on the TB burden in Tamil Nadu. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Tamil Nadu diagnosed more TB cases through CT scans taken for COVID-19 diagnosis in the Makkalai Thedi Maruthuvam (MTM) program [28]. It is a special new flagship program, which has been implemented to provide doorstep healthcare facilities to eliminate the visit of poor people to various hospitals. NTEP supplied two months of anti-TB drugs to TB patients to continue the treatment during the lockdown period. These efforts would have contributed in maintaining the positive trend of the TB decline.
In order to study the impact of the pandemic COVID-19 on TB in Tamil Nadu mathematically, this study has used a modified version of the SIR model termed the SEIR model, which has yielded the trend of the TB burden with and without the impact of COVID-19. The model was designed in such a fashion that it is able to yield the prevalence of TB with and without COVID-19 by tuning its parameters. The input parameters used in the model were taken from different data sources from published literature taken at different periods. The robustness of the model needs to be studied further, considering uncertainties of the parameter values with respect to time and place.
A similar finding was observed in all the districts that there was no effect of COVID-19 on TB prevalence and incidence. It was found that among districts, Chennai has a higher prevalence and incidence compared to both with and without the COVID-19 pandemic. Since this is a metropolitan city with a high population density and mixture of various segments of the population, including slums, the high prevalence and incidence of TB in Chennai might be due to many migrants who have acquired TB infection, leading to an increased risk of developing an active TB disease. This is also due to the fact that more vulnerable groups for TB such as the poor and homeless are found living in Chennai [29,30,31,32]. They are at risk of TB infection and progression due to factors such as increased exposure and infection risks.
In Tamil Nadu, TB case findings were low in the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. The government of Tamil Nadu has taken efforts on targeted interventions to bring them back to normal after COVID-19. These were aimed at testing more for TB, along the same lines of COVID-19, to detect more TB cases and increased TB case findings [33]. In addition, the following measures are also to be taken to improve the case findings, such as enhanced active case finding through health care workers, mobile diagnostic vans, active surveillance, testing all TB suspected cases with any duration of cough, active screening of household contacts and vulnerable population, advocacy, and social mobilization [34].
Even though NTEP has evolved significantly since it was first implemented and has experienced significant changes in recent years, significant work is still being conducted to improve the program’s focus on patients and the ability to offer complete treatment, care, and support [35]. In order to end TB by 2025, a number of steps have been taken, including: (1) treating tuberculosis (TB) appropriately to stop drug resistance from developing and break the chain of transmission; (2) increasing capacity for ongoing surveillance; and (3) stopping the spread of LTBI and TB infection. Since it was not able to have met the objectives by 2020, the new National Strategic Plan (NSP) was launched in 2020. Even though there are now complex and efficient strategies and technology for the diagnosis, treatment, and care of TB, additional work needs to be done in order to accelerate the state of Tamil Nadu’s TB incidence decline [29].
There are several other studies that assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB. Anurag Bhargava et al. has concluded that COVID-19 induced shock, and this could significantly affect the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis and take a long time to return to normal [36]. Lucia Cilloni et al.’s study on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TB epidemic by a modelling analysis has revealed that three key countries illustrated that even short COVID-19-related lockdowns can generate long-lasting setbacks in TB control [34]. In our study, we attempted to study the TB prevalence amongst all populations from across the state of Tamil Nadu. The results of this study provide vital information on the TB disease situation amongst this population and can serve as baseline data for a future evaluation of the impact of disease control measures and epidemiological trends. From the SEIR model, we estimated that the TB prevalence and TB incidence from 2017 to 2025 in Tamil Nadu has been decreasing by around 2% annually. This may be primarily attributable to a number of strict actions taken during the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as to people’s greater awareness of protection and protective measures, all of which reduced the risk of contracting tuberculosis. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic changed people’s lifestyles by promoting mask use, hand washing, and social distancing. This implementation of preventative measures against the transmission of COVID-19 may have had a significant impact on reducing respiratory infections, including TB. By applying similar approaches to other diseases, such as TB, it is possible to improve detection and reduce the burden of illness in the population. It is important for health systems to remain vigilant and adaptable in the face of emerging threats to ensure the best possible outcomes for patients and communities.
Finally, we note that there are certain drawbacks with our technique that also affect TB transmission models. As an example, our model’s result is contingent upon a number of epidemiological characteristics and starting burden estimates that are unknown, which introduce uncertainty into the findings. This implies that, as with any other model that depends on the input data, future advancements in measuring it should also have an effect on the quantitative results of our mathematical model.

5. Limitations

As this study was carried out among adults (≥18 years of age), our focus was only on the TB prevalence and incidence. The model only considers susceptibility, infectiousness, and recovery; the other factors such as age, immunity, and genetics are not considered. Additionally, the model is short term and not suitable for predicting long-term epidemic evolution. The additional disruptions that might have been caused due to COVID-19 on the TB epidemic, such as the delay in diagnosis, impact of COVID-19 vaccination, and reduced access to healthcare, has not been considered in this study.

6. Conclusions

This study has reflected that there are not many changes in TB that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the estimated TB prevalence and incidence in Tamil Nadu are in a reducing trend from 2020 to 2025. The reducing trend is not significant, despite the various efforts made by the government to accelerate the reduction. The findings of the study provide a reliable estimate of the trend of pulmonary TB among the adult population in Tamil Nadu during the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, the NTEP have also been making efforts to introduce interventions that are more preventive for the TB disease and latent TB infection like BCG revaccination, TB preventive therapy for children and adults, active case finding, and nutrition supplementation to speed up the reduction of TB prevalence and incidence in Tamil Nadu. Though there are various measures being taken up for the acceleration of the reduction of TB cases, there is still a need to focus on accelerating the process.

Author Contributions

M.M., K.N., K.M., P.G., K.T. and R.K. were responsible for the conceptualization of the study. M.M., P.G., K.M. and K.N. were responsible for the study’s implementation. M.M., K.M., K.T. and R.K. were responsible for the analysis and interpretation of the data. All the authors provided major contributions to the writing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

Operational Research Program—Tamil Nadu Health System Reform Program (TNHSRP) Coordinated by Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IITM), Chennai.

Institutional Review Board Statement

This study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai (NIRT-IEC 2022001). This study was also approved by the Operational Research Program—Tamil Nadu Health System Reform Program (TNHSRP), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Tamil Nadu. This manuscript was reviewed and approved by the manuscript review committee and research integrity committee of ICMR-NIRT, Chennai.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

All data generated during this study are included in this published article.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank S Uma, I.A.S., Former Project Director, Thiru. M Govinda Rao, I.A.S., Project Director, Operational Research Program, Tamil Nadu Health System Reform Program (TNHSRP), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Tamil Nadu for funding this study; Shobha, Expert Advisor, RCH, TNHSRP, and V R Muraleedharan, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, for organizing regular project review meetings, providing input, and administrative support. The authors would also like to thank Padmapriyadarsini C, Director, ICMR-National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai, for her constant support.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Figure 1. Model for the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without the COVID-19 pandemic in Tamil Nadu.
Figure 1. Model for the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without the COVID-19 pandemic in Tamil Nadu.
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Figure 2. TB prevalence without and with the impact of COVID-19.
Figure 2. TB prevalence without and with the impact of COVID-19.
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Figure 3. Observed prevalence rate and estimated prevalence rate on TB (without/with COVID-19) in Tamil Nadu from the year 2017 to 2022.
Figure 3. Observed prevalence rate and estimated prevalence rate on TB (without/with COVID-19) in Tamil Nadu from the year 2017 to 2022.
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Figure 4. TB incidence without and with the impact of COVID-19 during the years 2020 to 2025.
Figure 4. TB incidence without and with the impact of COVID-19 during the years 2020 to 2025.
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Table 1. Description of model parameters.
Table 1. Description of model parameters.
ParameterModel Parameter NameValuesReferences
αUninfected to Latent Progression0.338
π New susceptible0.01239
βUninfected to Active infection0.0030110
λLatent Progression to Active infection0.0059
δActive infection to Treatment0.9611
γTreatment to Active infection0.10212
εTreatment to Recovered0.8312
θRecovered to Uninfected0.99Assumption
ω All-cause mortality0.00910
ω 1TB mortality0.05912
σ Lockdown0.005Assumption
σ 1Mask Utilization0.005Assumption
Table 2. SEIR model values for with and without the impact of COVID-19.
Table 2. SEIR model values for with and without the impact of COVID-19.
SEIR Model Values for without the Impact of COVID-19
YearPopulation > 15SusceptibleLTBIActive TBTreatmentRecoveryMortality
201757,068,34039,677,93117,138,29885,54391,61474,95410,440
201857,342,26340,097,16616,993,39784,84291,26275,59610,390
201957,616,35240,516,26316,849,72284,13290,67175,56510,313
202057,890,62540,934,75116,707,26283,42389,98075,20910,231
202158,165,09341,352,41516,566,00682,71889,25174,70310,146
202258,439,76441,769,16216,425,94582,01988,51074,12910,061
202358,714,64642,184,95816,287,0688132687,76773,5289976
202458,989,74542,599,79816,149,36580,63887,02772,9179892
202559,265,06943,013,68816,012,82779,95686,29272,3059809
SEIR Model Values for with the Impact of COVID-19
YearPopulation > 15SusceptibleLTBIActive TBTreatmentRecoveryMortality
202057,889,81040,934,73116,707,23282,92389,76975,15610,242
202158,163,50541,352,25316,565,91782,06388,78374,49010,080
202258,437,42541,768,68416,425,78781,31887,88473,7529983
202358,711,56842,184,01816,286,84080,61487,06373,0349893
202458,985,93742,598,30016,149,06779,92786,28972,3549807
202559,260,53543,011,57816,012,45979,24985,54271,7079723
Table 3. TB prevalence (without/with COVID-19).
Table 3. TB prevalence (without/with COVID-19).
Year (Without COVID-19)(With COVID-19)Difference Rate (%)
Prevalence/100,000 PopulationReduction
(%)
Prevalence/100,000 PopulationReduction
(%)
2020289 (283–296)1.327289 (283–294)1.6290.298
2021286 (279–292)1.329284 (278–289)1.7320.697
2022282 (276–288)1.328280 (274–285)1.4580.826
2023278 (272–285)1.327276 (270–281)1.3680.867
2024275 (268–281)1.325272 (267–278)1.3380.880
2025271 (265–277)1.323269 (263–274)1.3270.884
Table 4. TB incidence (without/with COVID-19).
Table 4. TB incidence (without/with COVID-19).
Year(Without COVID-19)(With COVID-19)Difference Rate (%)
Incidence/100,000 PopulationReduction
(%)
Incidence/100,000 PopulationReduction
(%)
2020144 (141–147)1.312143 (141–146)1.9020.598
2021142 (139–145)1.312141 (139–144)1.5030.790
2022140 (137–143)1.311139 (137–142)1.3720.851
2023139 (135–142)1.310137 (135–140)1.3290.870
2024137 (134–140)1.308136 (133–138)1.3130.876
2025135 (132–138)1.306134 (131–136)1.3070.877
Table 5. District-wise TB prevalence with and without the impact of COVID-19 from 2017 to 2025.
Table 5. District-wise TB prevalence with and without the impact of COVID-19 from 2017 to 2025.
S. NoDistrictWithout ImpactWith Impact
201720182019202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025
1Ariyalur207204202199197194192189187197195192190188185
2Chennai323319315311307303299295291308304300296293289
3Coimbatore303299296292288284281277273289286282278275271
4Cuddalore287284280276273269266262259274270267264260257
5Dharmapuri235232229226223220218215212224221219216213210
6Dindigul259256253249246243240237234247244241238235232
7Erode263260257253250247244240237251248245241238235
8Kanchipuram311307303300296292288284281297293289285282278
9Kanniyakumari247244241238235232229226223236233230227224221
10Karur211208206203200198195193190201199196194191189
11Krishnagiri247244241238235232229226223236233230227224221
12Madurai299296292288284281277273270285282278275271267
13Namakkal243240237234231228225222219228225222219217214
14Nagapattinam239236233230227224221219216232229226223220217
15Permbalur203200198195193190188185183194191189186184182
16Pudukottai239236233230227224221219216228225222219217214
17Ramanathapuram223220217215212209206204201213210207205202200
18Salem303299296292288284281277273289286282278275271
19Sivaganga223220217215212209206204201213210207205202200
20Thanjavur267264260257254251247244241255252248245242239
21The Nilgiris207204202199197194192189187186182179175172168
22Theni219216213211208205203200198209206204201198196
23Tiruchy291288284280277273270266263197193189185182178
24Thiruvallur307303300296292288284281277209206204201198196
25Thiruvarur219216213211208205203200198209206204201198196
26Thoothukodi243240237234231228225222219232229226223220217
27Tirunelveli299296292288284281277273270285282278275271267
28Tiruppur283280276273269266262259255270267263260257253
29Thiruvanamalai275272268265261258255251248263259256253249246
30Vellore311307303300296292288284281297293289285282278
31Villupuram303299296292288284281277273289286282278275271
32Virudhunagar251248245242239236232230227240236233230228225
Table 6. District-wise TB incidence with and without the impact of COVID-19 from 2017 to 2025.
Table 6. District-wise TB incidence with and without the impact of COVID-19 from 2017 to 2025.
S. NoDistrictWithout ImpactWith Impact
201720182019202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025
1Ariyalur103102100999897959493989796959392
2Chennai161159157155153151149147145154152150148146144
3Coimbatore151149147145143142140138136144142140139137135
4Cuddalore143141139138136134132131129136135133131130128
5Dharmapuri117116114113111110108107106112110109107106105
6Dindigul129127126124123121119118116123122120118117115
7Erode131129128126124123121120118125123122120119117
8Kanchipuram155153151149147145143142140148146144142140139
9Kanniyakumari123121120118117115114112111117116114113111110
10Krur105104102101100999796951009998969594
11Krishnagiri123121120118117115114112111117116114113111110
12Madurai149147145143142140138136134142140138137135133
13Namakkal121120118116115114112111109114112111109108106
14Nagapattinam119118116115113112110109107115114113111110108
15Permbalur10110098979695949291969594939290
16Pudukottai119118116115113112110109107114112111109108106
17Ramanathapuram11111010810710510410310110010610510310210199
18Salem151149147145143142140138136144142140139137135
19Sivaganga11111010810710510410310110010610510310210199
20Thanjavur133131130128126125123122120127125124122121119
21The Nilgiris103102100999897959493939189878584
22Theni109108106105104102101100981041031011009998
23Tiruchy145143141140138136134132131989694929089
24Thiruvallur1531511491471451431421401381041031011009998
25Thiruvarur109108106105104102101100981041031011009998
26Thoothukodi121120118116115114112111109115114113111110108
27Tirunelveli149147145143142140138136134142140138137135133
28Tiruppur141139137136134132131129127135133131129128126
29Thiruvanamalai137135134132130128127125124131129127126124123
30Vellore155153151149147145143142140148146144142140139
31Villupuram151149147145143142140138136144142140139137135
32Virudhunagar125123122120119117116114113119118116115113112
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Muniyandi, M.; Nagarajan, K.; Mathiyazhagan, K.; Giridharan, P.; Thiruvengadam, K.; Krishnan, R. The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2024, 9, 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed9010012

AMA Style

Muniyandi M, Nagarajan K, Mathiyazhagan K, Giridharan P, Thiruvengadam K, Krishnan R. The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease. 2024; 9(1):12. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed9010012

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muniyandi, Malaisamy, Karikalan Nagarajan, Kavi Mathiyazhagan, Prathiksha Giridharan, Kannan Thiruvengadam, and Rajendran Krishnan. 2024. "The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India" Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 9, no. 1: 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed9010012

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