The Vicious Cycle Atlas of Fragility: Mapping the Feedback Loops Between Industrial–Urban Metabolism and Earth System Collapse

This study examines how Multi-Scalar Nature-Based Regenerative Solutions (M-NbRS) can realign urban–industrial systems with planetary boundaries to mitigate Earth system destabilization. Using integrated systems analysis, we document three key findings: (1) global material flows show only 9% circularity amid annual extraction of 100 billion tons of resources; (2) Earth system diagnostics reveal 28 trillion tons of cryosphere loss since 1994 and 372 Zettajoules of oceanic heat accumulation; and (3) meta-analysis identifies accelerating biosphere integrity loss (61.56 million hectares deforested since 2001) and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reaching 424.61 ppm (2024). Our Vicious Cycle Atlas of Fragility framework maps three synergistic disintegration pathways: metabolic overload from linear resource flows exceeding sink capacity, entropic degradation through high-entropy waste driving cryospheric collapse, and planetary boundary transgression. The M-NbRS framework counters these through spatially nested interventions: hyper-local urban tree canopy expansion (demonstrating 0.4–12 °C cooling), regional initiatives like the Heart of Borneo’s 24 million-hectare conservation, and global industrial controls maintaining aragonite saturation (Ωarag > 2.75) for marine resilience. Implementation requires policy innovations including deforestation-free supply chains, sustainability-linked financing, and ecological reciprocity legislation. These findings provide an evidence base for transitioning industrial–urban systems from drivers of Earth system fragility to architects of regeneration within safe operating spaces. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that M-NbRS offer a scientifically grounded, policy-actionable framework for breaking the vicious cycles of Earth system destabilization. By operationalizing nature-based regeneration across spatial scales—from street trees to transboundary conservation—this approach provides measurable pathways to realign human systems with planetary boundaries, offering a timely blueprint for industrial–urban transformation within ecological limits.