Open source software (OSS) programs are adopted as embedded systems regarding their server usage, due to their quick delivery, cost reduction, and standardization of systems. Many OSS programs are developed using the peculiar style known as the bazaar method, in which faults are detected and fixed by developers around the world, and the result is then reflected in the next release. Furthermore, the fix time of faults tends to be shorter as the development of the OSS progresses. However, several large-scale open source projects encounter the problem that fault fixing takes much time because the fault corrector cannot handle many fault reports. Therefore, OSS users and project managers need to know the stability degree of open source projects by determining the fault fix time. In this paper, we predict the transition of the fix time in large-scale open source projects. To make the prediction, we use the software reliability growth model based on the Wiener process considering that the fault fix time in open source projects changes depending on various factors such as the fault reporting time and the assignees to fix the faults. In addition, we discuss the assumption that fault fix time data depend on the prediction of the transition in fault fixing time.
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