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Mid-Century Daily Discharge Scenarios Based on Climate and Land Use Change in Ouémé River Basin at Bétérou Outlet

1
Laboratoire d’Hydrologie Appliquée, Institut National de l’Eau, Cotonou 01 BP 4521, Benin
2
Laboratoire des Procédés Industriels, de Synthèse, de l’Environnement et des Energies Nouvelles (LAPISEN), Institut National Polytechnique Félix HOUPHOUËT-BOIGNY (INP-HB), Yamoussoukro BP 1093, Cote d′Ivoire
3
Laboratoire Hydrologie et Ressources en Eau, Institut International d′Ingénierie de l′Eau et de l’Environnement, Ouagadougou 01 BP 594, Burkina Faso
4
West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Institut National de l′Eau, Cotonou 01 BP 4521, Benin
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Hydrology 2018, 5(4), 69; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology5040069
Received: 6 November 2018 / Revised: 20 November 2018 / Accepted: 3 December 2018 / Published: 13 December 2018
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Abstract

This study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate changes on daily discharge in Ouémé river basin at Bétérou outlet. Observed rainfall and temperature over 2002–2008 and land use data of 2003 and 2007 were used. Corrected rainfall and temperature data, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from regional climate model REMO were considered. Two land use scenarios from RIVERTWIN project were used. The first one, Land Use A (LUA), is characterized by stronger economic development, controlled urbanization, implementation of large-scale irrigation schemes, and 3.2% population growth per year. The other one, Land Use B (LUB), is characterized by a weak national economy, uncontrolled settlement, and farmland development as well as 3.5% population growth per year. Four climate and land use combined scenarios (LUA + RCP4.5, LUA + RCP8.5; LUB + RCP4.5, and LUB + RCP8.5) were used for forcing LISFLOOD hydrological model to estimate future discharges at 2050. As a result, during calibration and validation, the LISFLOOD model showed high ability to reproduce historical flows of Ouémé River at Bétérou outlet with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies greater than 90%. Future discharges simulations show general increase for all land use and climate combined scenarios for all time horizons until 2050. The increase is more exacerbated under the combined scenarios using LUB than the ones using LUA. Increase of river discharge varies between 7.1% and 52% compared to the mean of the reference period 2002–2004. These findings highlight growing challenges for water resources managers and planners. Moreover, they emphasize the need to address potential climate and land use changes’ impact on water resources. Then, developing water management plans, strategies to reduce flooding risks must be considered. View Full-Text
Keywords: discharge scenarios; land use scenario; LISFLOOD; hydrological modeling; REMO; Ouémé basin discharge scenarios; land use scenario; LISFLOOD; hydrological modeling; REMO; Ouémé basin
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MDPI and ACS Style

Emmanuel, L.A.; N’Tcha M’Po, Y.; Biaou, C.A.; Komi, K.; Hounguè, R.; Yao, K.B.; Afouda, A.A. Mid-Century Daily Discharge Scenarios Based on Climate and Land Use Change in Ouémé River Basin at Bétérou Outlet. Hydrology 2018, 5, 69.

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