Capacity Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Carbon-Green Certificate Trading and Electricity Price Fluctuations

In order to study the impacts of the carbon-green certificate trading mechanism and the fluctuation of feed-in tariffs on the low-carbon and economic aspects of the investment and operation of the integrated energy system, and to transform the system carbon emission into a low-carbon economic indicator, a two-layer capacity optimization allocation model is established with the objectives of the investment, operation, and maintenance cost and the operation cost, respectively. For the source-load uncertainty, the scenario reduction theory based on Monte Carlo simulation and Wasserstein distance is used to obtain the per-unit value of wind and photovoltaic output, and the K-means clustering method is used to obtain the typical day of electric-heat-cold multi-energy load. Based on the geometric Brownian motion in finance to simulate the feed-in tariffs under different volatilities, the multidimensional analysis scenarios are constructed according to different combinations of carbon emission reduction policies and tariff volatilities. The model is solved using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) with mixed integer linear programming (MILP) method. Case study results show that under the optimal scenario considering policy interaction and price volatility (δ = 1.0), the total annual operating cost is reduced by approximately 17.9% (from 2.80 million CNY to 2.30 million CNY) compared to the baseline with no carbon policy. The levelized cost of the energy system reaches 0.2042 CNY/kWh, and carbon-green certificate trading synergies contribute about 70% of the operational cost reduction. The findings demonstrate that carbon reduction policies and electricity price volatility significantly affect system configuration and operational economy, providing a new perspective and decision-making basis for integrated energy system planning.