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Risks 2019, 7(1), 27; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks7010027

Credible Regression Approaches to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data

Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, Greece
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Received: 3 December 2018 / Revised: 14 February 2019 / Accepted: 21 February 2019 / Published: 26 February 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Development in Actuarial Science and Related Fields)
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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a credible regression approach with random coefficients to model and forecast the mortality dynamics of a given population with limited data. Age-specific mortality rates are modelled and extrapolation methods are utilized to estimate future mortality rates. The results on Greek mortality data indicate that credibility regression contributed to more accurate forecasts than those produced from the Lee–Carter and Cairns–Blake–Dowd models. An application on pricing insurance-related products is also provided. View Full-Text
Keywords: credible regression approach; random coefficients; Lee–Carter model; CBD model credible regression approach; random coefficients; Lee–Carter model; CBD model
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Bozikas, A.; Pitselis, G. Credible Regression Approaches to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data. Risks 2019, 7, 27.

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