Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Data Source
2.2. Statistics
2.3. Ethical Considerations
3. Results
4. Discussion
Strengths and Limitations of the Study
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Men | Women | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | Crude rate | ASR | Number | Crude Rate | ASR | |
1991 | 452 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 315 | 8.1 | 4.5 |
1992 | 483 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 314 | 8.1 | 4.4 |
1993 | 521 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 318 | 8.2 | 4.3 |
1994 | 459 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 333 | 8.5 | 4.4 |
1995 | 439 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 337 | 8.6 | 4.4 |
1996 | 402 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 314 | 8.1 | 4.0 |
1997 | 467 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 305 | 7.8 | 3.8 |
1998 | 437 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 310 | 8.0 | 3.9 |
1999 | 424 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 301 | 7.8 | 3.6 |
2000 | 487 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 336 | 8.7 | 4.1 |
2001 | 433 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 315 | 8.2 | 3.8 |
2002 | 461 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 332 | 8.6 | 3.9 |
2003 | 449 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 306 | 8.0 | 3.8 |
2004 | 420 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 336 | 8.8 | 3.7 |
2005 | 428 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 304 | 8.0 | 3.5 |
2006 | 471 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 333 | 8.7 | 3.7 |
2007 | 467 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 312 | 8.2 | 3.6 |
2008 | 462 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 285 | 7.5 | 3.2 |
2009 | 490 | 13,8 | 7.1 | 325 | 8.6 | 3.6 |
2010 | 412 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 269 | 7.2 | 2.8 |
2011 | 459 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 297 | 8.0 | 3.1 |
2012 | 410 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 312 | 8.4 | 3.2 |
2013 | 429 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 336 | 9.1 | 3.7 |
2014 | 455 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 279 | 7.6 | 2.9 |
2015 | 434 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 310 | 8.5 | 3.3 |
Overall | 11,251 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 7834 | 8.2 | 3.7 |
Age † | Men | Women | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Average Age-Specific Rates | AAPC (95% CI) | Average Age-Specific Rates | AAPC (95% CI) | |
45–49 | 5.2 | −1.6 * (−3.0 to −0.2) | 2.8 | −0.1 (−2.3 to 2.1) |
50–54 | 9.9 | −1.1 (−2.4 to 0.3) | 5.2 | −1.2 ** (−3.0 to 0.6) |
55–59 | 18.5 | −0.9 (−2.0 to 0.2) | 9.7 | −2.0 * (−2.9 to −1.1) |
60–64 | 32.3 | −1.5 * (−2.1 to −0.7) | 15.8 | −2.4 * (−3.2 to −1.5) |
65–69 | 46.7 | −1.9 * (−2.7 to −1.2) | 23.0 | −2.4 * (−3.2 to −1.6) |
70–74 | 58.4 | −1.6 * (−2.3 to −0.9) | 32.0 | −1.1 * (−1.9 to −0.4) |
75–79 | 71.6 | −0.3 (−1.0 to 0.5) | 40.7 | −0.8 * (−1.5 to −0.1) |
80–84 | 64.7 | 0.0 (−1.1 to 1.1) | 43.1 | −0.1 (−1.3 to 1.0) |
85+ | 45.1 | 1.8 (−0.7 to 4.4) | 34.6 | −0.1 (−1.2 to 1.1) |
All | −1.3 * (−1.7 to −0.9) | −1.5 * (−1.9 to −1.1) |
Group | Men | Women | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate Ratio | 95% CI | Rate Ratio | 95% CI | ||
Age | |||||
45–49 | 6.5 | 4.7–8.9 | 3.9 | 2.5–6.0 | |
50–54 | 11.3 | 9.0–14.2 | 6.6 | 4.9–8.9 | |
55–59 | 18.9 | 15.8–22.6 | 11.5 | 9.2–14.5 | |
60–64 | 30.8 | 26.4–35.9 | 17.0 | 14.0–20.6 | |
65–69 | 42.1 | 36.4–48.9 | 22.6 | 18.7–27.1 | |
70–74 | 49.0 | 42.0–57.1 | 28.6 | 23.8–34.4 | |
75–79 | 58.0 | 48.3–69.6 | 35.2 | 28.4–43.6 | |
80–84 | 50.7 | 40.1–63.9 | 36.2 | 28.2–46.4 | |
Period | |||||
1991–1995 | 1.3 | 1.1–1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0–1.4 | |
1996–2000 | 1.1 | 0.9–1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9–1.3 | |
2001–2005 | 1.0 | 1.0–1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0–1.0 | |
2006–2010 | 1.0 | 0.9–1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8–1.1 | |
2011–2015 | 0.8 | 0.8–1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8–1.1 | |
Cohort | |||||
1911–1915 | 1.3 | 0.8–2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8–2.0 | |
1916–1920 | 1.2 | 0.9–1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8–1.7 | |
1921–1925 | 1.3 | 1.1–1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0–1.6 | |
1926–1930 | 1.3 | 1.1–1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0–1.5 | |
1931–1935 | 1.2 | 1.0–1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9–1.4 | |
1936–1940 | 1.1 | 1.0–1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8–1.3 | |
1941–1945 | 1.0 | 1.0–1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0–1.0 | |
1946–1950 | 0.9 | 0.8–1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6–1.0 | |
1951–1955 | 0.9 | 0.8–1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6–1.0 | |
1956–1960 | 0.9 | 0.7–1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5–1.0 | |
1961–1965 | 0.7 | 0.4–1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5–1.4 | |
1966–1970 | 0.7 | 0.3–1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3–1.6 | |
Wald Chi-square tests for estimable functions, p-value | |||||
Net drift | 0.0001 | 0.0008 | |||
All period rate ratios | 0.0014 | 0.0194 | |||
All cohort rate ratios | 0.0173 | 0.0397 | |||
All local drifts | 0.6908 | 0.7573 |
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Ilic, I.; Sipetic Grujicic, S.; Grujicic, J.; Radovanovic, D.; Zivanovic Macuzic, I.; Kocic, S.; Ilic, M. Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis. Healthcare 2020, 8, 283. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8030283
Ilic I, Sipetic Grujicic S, Grujicic J, Radovanovic D, Zivanovic Macuzic I, Kocic S, Ilic M. Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis. Healthcare. 2020; 8(3):283. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8030283
Chicago/Turabian StyleIlic, Irena, Sandra Sipetic Grujicic, Jovan Grujicic, Djordje Radovanovic, Ivana Zivanovic Macuzic, Sanja Kocic, and Milena Ilic. 2020. "Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis" Healthcare 8, no. 3: 283. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8030283