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Article

Calendar Effect and In-Sample Forecasting Applied to Mesothelioma Mortality Data

1
Bayes Business School (Formerly Cass), City, University of London, London EC1Y 8TZ, UK
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Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Lev Klebanov
Mathematics 2021, 9(18), 2260; https://doi.org/10.3390/math9182260
Received: 14 July 2021 / Revised: 6 September 2021 / Accepted: 10 September 2021 / Published: 14 September 2021
In this paper, we apply and further illustrate a recently developed extended continuous chain ladder model to forecast mesothelioma deaths. Making such a forecast has always been a challenge for insurance companies as exposure is difficult or impossible to measure, and the latency of the disease usually lasts several decades. While we compare three approaches to this problem, we show that the extended continuous chain ladder model is a promising benchmark candidate for asbestosis mortality forecasting due to its flexible and simple forecasting strategy. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the model can be used to provide an update for the forecast of the number of deaths due to mesothelioma in Great Britain using in recent Health and Safety Executive (HSE) data. View Full-Text
Keywords: continuous chain ladder; age-period-cohort model; backfitting; density estimation; kernel smoothing continuous chain ladder; age-period-cohort model; backfitting; density estimation; kernel smoothing
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MDPI and ACS Style

Isakson, A.; Krummaker, S.; Martínez-Miranda, M.D.; Rickayzen, B. Calendar Effect and In-Sample Forecasting Applied to Mesothelioma Mortality Data. Mathematics 2021, 9, 2260. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9182260

AMA Style

Isakson A, Krummaker S, Martínez-Miranda MD, Rickayzen B. Calendar Effect and In-Sample Forecasting Applied to Mesothelioma Mortality Data. Mathematics. 2021; 9(18):2260. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9182260

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isakson, Alex, Simone Krummaker, María D. Martínez-Miranda, and Ben Rickayzen. 2021. "Calendar Effect and In-Sample Forecasting Applied to Mesothelioma Mortality Data" Mathematics 9, no. 18: 2260. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9182260

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