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Deep Assessment Methodology Using Fractional Calculus on Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Gross Domestic Product per Capita of Countries

Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, 34467 Istanbul, Turkey
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Mathematics 2020, 8(4), 633; https://doi.org/10.3390/math8040633
Received: 19 February 2020 / Revised: 29 March 2020 / Accepted: 9 April 2020 / Published: 20 April 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Economics: Application of Fractional Calculus)
In this study, a new approach for time series modeling and prediction, “deep assessment methodology,” is proposed and the performance is reported on modeling and prediction for upcoming years of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The proposed methodology expresses a function with the finite summation of its previous values and derivatives combining fractional calculus and the Least Square Method to find unknown coefficients. The dataset of GDP per capita used in this study includes nine countries (Brazil, China, India, Italy, Japan, the UK, the USA, Spain and Turkey) and the European Union. The modeling performance of the proposed model is compared with the Polynomial model and the Fractional model and prediction performance is compared to a special type of neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), that used for time series. Results show that using Deep Assessment Methodology yields promising modeling and prediction results for GDP per capita. The proposed method is outperforming Polynomial model and Fractional model by 1.538% and by 1.899% average error rates, respectively. We also show that Deep Assessment Method (DAM) is superior to plain LSTM on prediction for upcoming GDP per capita values by 1.21% average error. View Full-Text
Keywords: deep assessment; fractional calculus; least squares; modeling; GDP per capita; prediction; LSTM deep assessment; fractional calculus; least squares; modeling; GDP per capita; prediction; LSTM
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Karaçuha, E.; Tabatadze, V.; Karaçuha, K.; Önal, N.Ö.; Ergün, E. Deep Assessment Methodology Using Fractional Calculus on Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Gross Domestic Product per Capita of Countries. Mathematics 2020, 8, 633.

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