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Open AccessArticle

The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis

by Brandy L. Rapatski *,† and Juan Tolosa
Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Stockton University, 101 Vera King Farris Drive, Galloway, NJ 08205-9441, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
This author contributed equally to this work.
Academic Editor: Bruno Buonomo
Mathematics 2015, 3(4), 1083-1094; https://doi.org/10.3390/math3041083
Received: 30 July 2015 / Accepted: 13 November 2015 / Published: 24 November 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimal Control and Management of Infectious Diseases)
We investigate various scenarios for ending the San Francisco MSM (men having sex with men) HIV/AIDS epidemic (1978–1984). We use our previously developed model and explore changes due to prevention strategies such as testing, treatment and reduction of the number of contacts. Here we consider a “what-if” scenario, by comparing different treatment strategies, to determine which factor has the greatest impact on reducing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The factor determining the future of the epidemic is the reproduction number R0; if R0 < 1, the epidemic is stopped. We show that treatment significantly reduces the total number of infected people. We also investigate the effect a reduction in the number of contacts after seven years, when the HIV/AIDS threat became known, would have had in the population. Both reduction of contacts and treatment alone, however, would not have been enough to bring R0 below one; but when combined, we show that the effective R0 becomes less than one, and therefore the epidemic would have been eradicated. View Full-Text
Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); mathematical model; reproduction number; endemic equilibrium human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); mathematical model; reproduction number; endemic equilibrium
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Rapatski, B.L.; Tolosa, J. The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis. Mathematics 2015, 3, 1083-1094.

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