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Mathematics 2015, 3(4), 1083-1094;

The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis

Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Stockton University, 101 Vera King Farris Drive, Galloway, NJ 08205-9441, USA
This author contributed equally to this work.
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Bruno Buonomo
Received: 30 July 2015 / Accepted: 13 November 2015 / Published: 24 November 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimal Control and Management of Infectious Diseases)
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We investigate various scenarios for ending the San Francisco MSM (men having sex with men) HIV/AIDS epidemic (1978–1984). We use our previously developed model and explore changes due to prevention strategies such as testing, treatment and reduction of the number of contacts. Here we consider a “what-if” scenario, by comparing different treatment strategies, to determine which factor has the greatest impact on reducing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The factor determining the future of the epidemic is the reproduction number R0; if R0 < 1, the epidemic is stopped. We show that treatment significantly reduces the total number of infected people. We also investigate the effect a reduction in the number of contacts after seven years, when the HIV/AIDS threat became known, would have had in the population. Both reduction of contacts and treatment alone, however, would not have been enough to bring R0 below one; but when combined, we show that the effective R0 becomes less than one, and therefore the epidemic would have been eradicated. View Full-Text
Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); mathematical model; reproduction number; endemic equilibrium human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); mathematical model; reproduction number; endemic equilibrium

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Rapatski, B.L.; Tolosa, J. The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis. Mathematics 2015, 3, 1083-1094.

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