Abstract
This work focuses on the convergence of the numerical invariant measure for a stochastic age-dependent population–toxicant model with Markov switching. Considering that Euler–Maruyama (EM) has the advantage of fast computation and low cost, explicit EM was used to discretize the time variable. With the help of the p-th moment boundedness of the analytical and numerical solutions of the model, the existence and uniqueness of the corresponding invariant measures were obtained. Under suitable assumptions, the conclusion that the numerical invariant measure converges to the invariant measure of the analytic solution was proven by defining the Wasserstein distance. A numerical simulation was performed to illustrate the theoretical results.
Keywords:
age-dependent population–toxicant model; environmental pollution; Markov switching; invariant measure MSC:
60H10; 92-10
1. Introduction
The large amount of waste discharged by industrial and agricultural industries has caused serious ecological problems (see [1,2,3]). In particular, the presence of toxicants in the environment is one of the main factors with respect to the reduction in species diversity as well as the extinction of some species. Therefore, it is very important to study the effects of toxicants released in the environment on biological populations by establishing mathematical models. Hallam et al. [4,5] first proposed the deterministic population model in a polluted environment. Next, Liu and Ma [6] established the threshold for the Lotka–Volterra model to analyze the dynamic behavior of a population. Feng and Wang [7] provided some sufficient conditions for weak persistence and extinction. For further details on the results and theory of the deterministic population–toxicant model, see [8,9,10,11].
The aforementioned model parameters are usually assumed to be constants. In fact, in practical problems, the model parameters are affected not only by environmental noise but also by random switching in terms of temperature and climate. In recent years, the stochastic age-dependent population model with Markov switching has attracted the attention of many scholars. For example, Li [12] established a class of stochastic age-dependent population models with Markov switching and proved the convergence of the numerical approximation solution. Then, Ma and Zhang [13] investigated the convergence of the semi-implicit method for the stochastic age-dependent population model. Using Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequality, Rathinasamy [14] proved that the split-step methods converged to the analytical solutions of the model under given conditions. Motivated by [12,13], Liu et al. [15] proposed a stochastic population model with Markov switching in a polluted environment and obtained the threshold between weak persistence and extinction. However, few authors have studied the stochastic age-dependent population model with Markov switching in a polluted environment. This paper introduces a continuous-time Markov chain into the random parameters of the stochastic age-structured population model in a polluted environment and studies the approximation of its invariant measure.
It is important to find an effective algorithm to approximate the original system’s invariant measure to study the dynamic behavior of a stochastic population. There have been several research results on the invariant measures of stochastic differential equations (see [16,17,18,19]). On the other hand, due to the difficulty of finding general explicit solutions to stochastic differential equations with Markov switching, the numerical approximation method and its ergodic have become interesting hot spots [20,21]. For example, Mao and Yuan [22] investigated the convergence of stationary distributions of EM numerical schemes for stochastic differential equations with Markov switching. Subsequently, under local Lipschitz conditions, Bao [23] proved the approximation of invariant measures for stochastic difference equations with Markov switching. Although the numerical invariant measures for stochastic differential equations have been well studied, there are few studies on the numerical invariant measures of a stochastic age-dependent population model with Markov switching. Based on the ideas of [22,23], in this work, we focus on the existence and uniqueness of the invariant measure for a random age-dependent population–toxicant model with Markov switching using the explicit EM method, which has the advantage of being a simpler calculation, and prove that the numerical invariant measure converges to the underlying invariant measure. Due to the complexity of random population systems with Markov switching, it is difficult to express the exact solution to such a system. Therefore, it is extremely important to develop accurate and efficient numerical approximation methods to calculate the density of populations and toxic substances in population models. However, there are few studies on the numerical approximation of a stochastic age-dependent population model with Markov switching. The main difficulty is that the transition rate matrices of may be different for every step of a jump. The novelties of this study are as follows:
- A stochastic age-dependent population–toxicant model with Markov switching is established. The ergodicity of the invariant measure for this model is obtained, applying stochastic techniques such as Gronwall inequality, Young inequality, and so on.
- Under certain suitable conditions, the explicit EM semi-discrete method is used for the time variables, and the convergence of the numerical invariant measure is analyzed.
The structure of this article is as follows: In Section 2, a new stochastic age-dependent population model is proposed, and some necessary preliminary knowledge is introduced for the following analysis. In Section 3, the existence and uniqueness of the invariant measure for the exact solution under the given conditions are proven, and the boundedness of the p-th moment for the numerical solution is obtained using Gronwall inequality. Furthermore, the convergence of the numerical invariant measure is proven by defining the Wasserstein distance. In Section 4, we verify the theoretical results with numerical examples. The conclusions of this study are presented in Section 5.
2. Model and Preliminaries
2.1. Model Formulation
To begin with, we provide the following stochastic age-dependent population model in a polluted environment, which was proposed by Zhao [24]:
Table 1.
List of parameters, variables, and their meanings in model (1).
In fact, the parameters of a stochastic age-dependent population model may experience abrupt changes caused by phenomena such as environmental shift in different regimes. Therefore, we can develop a model with regime switching using a finite-state Markov chain. Let be a right-continuous Markov chain in the probability space taking values in a finite state of for some positive integer () with transition rules being specified by
where , denotes that . is the transition rate from state i to j satisfying . We assume that the Markov chain () is independent of and that the transition matrix () is irreducible and conservative. Under this condition, the Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution (), which can be determined by solving the equation (where is zero vector) subject to and , .
Inspired by [15], we introduce colored noise (i.e., the Markov chain) into the stochastic age-dependent population model (1). The following model is obtained:
where is the initial population density.
Remark 1.
The parameters of the system are not constant but randomly switch over time. The system can use many biological models: susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR), susceptible–infected–vaccinated (SIV), the Lotka–Volterra model, and so on. Our future work will focus on sensitivity analysis of the system.
Remark 2.
In the real world, population systems are usually affected by random perturbations in the environment, such as seasons, temperature, and so on. In addition, the jump due to instantaneous changes (e.g., high temperature, a rainstorm, and policy implementation) in the state of the population system need to be taken into account [25]. To depict these phenomena, it is necessary to introduce non-Gaussian noise, such as the Lévy process, a discontinuous function with right continuity and left limits [26]. The stochastic population models driven by Lévy noise are rarely analyzed for the control problem. This will also be part of our future work.
2.2. Preliminaries
- Let be a complete probability space with as the natural filtration generated by Brownian motion (), which means augmented with all P-null sets of .
- stands for the expectation corresponding to .
- C denotes a positive constant whose value may change in different occurrences.
- , where represents generalized partial derivatives, and is a Sobolev space.
- denotes the duality product between V and , and is the scalar product in H.
For an operator () in the space of all bounded linear operators from M into H, we denotes the norm in H () such that
The integral version of Equation (3) is given by the following equation:
where , is the family of nonlinear operators, and is almost surely measurable in t.
Now, let us provide the following necessary assumptions:
Assumption 1.
Assume
where , , , , and denote positive constants.
Assumption 2.
There exists a positive constant such that for , ,
where and are the two different initial values.
Further, for each and , ,
where L depends on the initial value of the function .
Assumption 3.
Assume
where is a positive constant.
Remark 3.
We replace with , especially the initial value For any , setting , the norm of vector in space is defined as . We define a metric on as follows:
where denotes the indicator function of set G, and is a different initial value. For , we define the Wasserstein distance between and by
where the infimum is taken over all pairs of random variables (, on with respective laws , ). Let be the transition probability kernel of the pair , a time-homogeneous Markov process (see [27]). Recall that is called an invariant measure of if
holds. For any , let
where is a positive constant, and , denotes the spectrum of (i.e., the multi-set of its eigenvalues). is the real part of , and denotes the diagonal matrix whose diagonal entries starting in the upper-left corner are , respectively.
3. Invariant Measure
With the help of the p-th moment boundedness of the analytical and numerical solutions of the model, the existence and uniqueness of the corresponding invariant measures are obtained. Under suitable assumptions, the conclusion that the numerical invariant measure converges to the invariant measure of the analytic solution is proven by defining the Wasserstein distance.
Under Assumptions 1–3, using the method similar to that described in [28], we can prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Therefore, it is omitted. In this section, we first prove the existence and uniqueness of the corresponding invariant measure. Then, we discuss the numerical invariant measure of the Euler–Maruyama method and the convergence of the numerical invariant measure under the Wasserstein measure.
3.1. Invariant Measure of Exact Solution
Theorem 1.
Let and Assumptions 1–3 hold with . Then, the exact solution of system (3) admits a unique invariant measure ().
Proof.
Let be the exact solution of Equation (3) with as initial values, where . A simple application of the Feynman–Kac formula shows that , where is given in Equation (11). Then, the spectral radius (Ria, i.e., Ria) of equals Since all coefficients of are positive, the Perron–Frobenius theorem (see, e.g., [29]) shows that is a simple eigenvalue of , all other eigenvalues having a strictly smaller real part. Note that the eigenvector of corresponding to is also an eigenvector of corresponding to . According to the Perron–Frobenius theorem, for , it can be found that there is a positive eigenvector (, where is a zero vector) corresponding to the eigenvalue , and means that each component is . Let
Combined with Lemma 2.1 of [23], we can obtain
and
Furthermore,
where is a positive constant. In the last step, we use the fundamental inequality () for any . Finally, using Gronwall inequality and taking the sup on both sides of Equation (15), we obtain the following result:
Using similar methods, it is not difficult to obtain
On the other hand, according to the Itô formula, for any , we can obtain
due to and
It follows from Equation (18) that
where , . Then, according to the Gronwall inequality and taking sup over for Equation (21), we have
In order to show the uniqueness and ergodicity of invariant measures, based on references [19,22,30], we can define a probability measure
Then, for any , according to Equation (21) and Chebyshev’s inequality, there exists a sufficiently large such that
Hence, is tight, due to the compact embedding (); then, is a compact subset of . Borrowing the proof method of [[23], Theorem 2.3], is constant such that holds. Therefore, conclusions about the existence and uniqueness of the result for the invariant measure can be obtained but omit details to avoid repetition. □
3.2. Numerical Invariant Measure
The simulation of a discrete Markov chain was proposed in [27]. Now, let be deterministic grid points of . denotes increments of time. , , . For system (5), we can define the discrete-time Euler–Maruyama approximate solution (, , on ) using the following iterative scheme:
where the initial values are , , , , , and is Brownian motion. Then
where for , , , . is the indicator function of set G. By a straightforward calculation, one has , , , (i.e., the discrete-time EM scheme (23) coincides with the corresponding continuous-time EM scheme (24) at the grid points whenever they enjoy the same starting points). denotes the integer part of a.
By a similar method [19], we set and , . is a non-homogenous Markov process with transition probability kernel , If satisfies
then is called an invariant measure of . Let
To prove the p-th moment boundedness of the numerical solution for the EM scheme, first, we cite the classical conclusion in the next Lemma (see [31]).
Lemma 1
(In Mao [31]). Let be a scalar bounded measurable random function of x independent of , and let ζ be an -measurable random variable. Then,
where .
Lemma 1 provides great convenience for proof of Lemma 2. The following lemma shows that the continuous approximation is bounded.
Lemma 2.
Under Assumptions 1–3, if
then we have
where and for any and the initial values are.
Proof.
In the following proof, let and
Therefore, taking , we arrive at
and
Next, by applying the Itô formula for and , we can obtain
Using inequality Equation (19) and , we can obtain
where , . By using the conclusion of [32], for any , due to , we have
Applying the results of Lemma 1, we obtain
where is independent of . Furthermore, due to , we have . In addition, in the light of Equations (36) and (32), taking , it follows that
where in the above inequality, we mainly use the fundamental inequality () for any and . Therefore, according to Equations (34) and (37), we have
where , taking . According to Gronwall inequality and taking the upper bound on the left-hand side of Equation (38), we obtain
On the other hand, by repeating the same procedure, taking , we have
and
Applying Hlder inequality and taking the sup of Equation (42), it follows that
where is a positive constant related to time t. Then, according to Gronwall inequality, Equation (43) becomes
Using a similar method, applying the results of Equations (39) and (40), it then follows that
due to Equation (27), Hlder inequality, and the following equation:
where is a positive constant, and according to Gronwall inequality, one can obtain
□
To investigate the uniqueness of the numerical invariant measure, we provide the asymptotically attractive property of the numerical solutions of the implicit EM scheme.
Lemma 3.
Under the conditions of Theorem 1, we assume that and and that there exists a sufficiently small such that for any , the numerical solutions of the implicit EM scheme satisfy
for any , is given in (12), , is introduced in Lemma 2, and is a positive constant.
Proof.
Equation (29) and Lemma 2 imply that
such that
and
where and . For any and , according to the Itô formula and Equation (19), it follows from Assumptions 1–3 that
where . It is clear from Assumption 1 that
where . Setting and substituting Equation (52) into Equation (51), one has
Then, taking and , according to Gronwall inequality, there exists a such that
Furthermore, by virtue of Young’s inequality,
and
Using Equations (57) and (58), it is not difficult to obtain
where . Using the similar method of Equation (54), taking and and using Gronwall inequality, there exists constants such that
Setting , we define . In addition, because is a finite set and Q is irreducible, there exists such that
For , we choose such that . In order to facilitate our discussion, we let , , and and use Equations (47) and (61) and Hlder inequality such that
Similar to the arguments presented above, note that
and
And as a result,
Then taking the expectations of both sides of Equation (65), the equation becomes
One can obtain
and
Finally, the proof of Lemma 3 is completed. □
Theorem 2.
Under the conditions of Theorem 1, there exists a sufficiently small such that for any , the solutions of the implicit EM method (24) converge to a unique invariant measure () with some exponential rate () in the Wasserstein distance.
Proof.
In fact, for any initial data (), according Equation (2) and Chebyshev inequality, we derive that is tight. Therefore, there exists an exact subsequence that converges weakly to an invariant measure denoted by . By virtue of Equation (61), we have the following result:
For any , it is not difficult to obtain
where . Given , it follows from Lemma 2 that
where ; then, taking ,
in other words, is the unique invariant measure of . are invariant measures of and , respectively. Furthermore, we have
Therefore, the uniqueness for the numerical invariant measure is proven. □
Remark 4.
There are many variables in Theorems 1 and 2, so the algorithm is complicated, and the calculation is large. Therefore, the calculation of a simplified algorithm needs further discussion.
Theorem 3.
Under Assumptions 1–3, ,
where
Proof.
For ,
and
Then, based on Assumptions 1–3 and Lemma 2, for any , is sufficiently large such that
where was introduced in Lemma 3. For any given , applying a method similar to [23], one obtains
That is to say that there exists a positive constant () such that
Combining Theorem 1 and Equation (73) yields
where . denotes the integer part of , which satisfies as . In addition, and . Therefore, holds. □
Remark 5.
The improvement of Markovian switching conditions can be influenced by many factors, which can generally be divided into the quality of the data, the frequency of the observations, and the computational factors. (1) Quality of data: The accuracy and cleanliness of the data can significantly impact the performance of the model. (2) Frequency of observations: The choice of time scale (e.g., daily vs. monthly data) can affect the detection of switches. (3) Estimation techniques: The method used to estimate the model parameters (e.g., maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian methods) can influence the accuracy and efficiency of the model.
4. Numerical Example
Consider two state transitions, that is, the state space () and the generator It is easy to see that its unique stationary distribution () is given by , . and are assumed to be independent. We fix some parameter values based on the existing literature and experimental data [2,11,15].
In state , we take the following values: , ; , , , , .
In state , we take the following values: , , ; , , , , . We consider the following model:
where , , , and . Since the second and third equations of system (78) are ordinary differential equations, it is not difficult to obtain exact solutions by using the constant variation formulas. Therefore, we only need to consider the numerical simulation of the EM method for the following equation:
As we know, the exact solution of stochastic partial differential Equation (79) is difficult to be exactly expressed. Here, we let be the “explicit solution” of Equation (79) (the simulation; see the Figure 1a) by using the characteristic line law. Figure 1b describes the EM numerical solution of Equation (79) under Markov switching. Figure 2 shows that the EM numerical solution converges to an exact solution when the step size gradually becomes smaller, i.e., .
Figure 2.
Sample paths produced by the square of the difference between (a) “explicit solution" and (b) numerical solution under and , respectively (78).
In addition, it is not difficult to verify that system (78) has a unique invariant probability measure. However, for system (78), its true solution is almost impossible to find. Therefore, let the EM method generate the empirical distribution as the true invariant probability distribution. Inspired by [33], the statistic of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test can be used to estimate the difference between two distributions. First, we choose 200 independent paths of (78) to simulate with from to . We can easily obtain 10 paths after averaging at time . The yellow line in Figure 3a describes the empirical distribution, which is constructed by 10 points at . The blue line in Figure 3a represents the numerical invariant probability distribution generated by the EM method. The red line in Figure 3a shows that the error between the numerical invariant measure (i.e., numerical probability distribution) and the true invariant measure (i.e., true invariant probability distribution) gradually decreases with increasing time (t). Next, based on Figure 3, i.e., , the log(error) plot of the differences between the numerical and true invariant probability distributions with step sizes is shown in Figure 3b. Obviously, it is not difficult to conclude that as the step size becomes smaller, the Wasserstein distance also decreases, tending toward 0.
Figure 3.
(a) The difference between the empirical and true distributions along the time line for system (78); (b) log–log plot of errors against step size.
5. Concluding Remarks
In this work, a class of stochastic age-dependent population–toxicant equations with Markovian switching was considered. Applying Gronwall inequality, a criterion for the existence and uniqueness of the invariant measure for the model was proposed. Moreover, we also proved the existence and uniqueness of the numerical invariance measure for system (3) when is sufficiently small, and we proved that the numerical invariance measure converges at a rate of to the invariance measure of the corresponding exact number. We outlined some possible research directions and problems for our future work. In this study, based on the classical population model [17,24], a stochastic age-dependent population model with Markov switching in a polluted environment was developed. The analysis was mathematical and methodological. In order to ensure the model moves closer to the biological background, a more realistic and simplified control equation is needed. The applications of the stochastic age-dependent population model with Markov switching will be the main research direction in our future work.
Author Contributions
Writing—original draft, Y.D.; Writing—review & editing, Z.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Data Availability Statement
Data sharing is not applicable to this article, as no datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the anonymous referee for the helpful comments.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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