The Twin Impacts of Income Inequality and Unemployment on Murder Crime in African Emerging Economies: A Mixed Models Approach
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
The merits of the study are an important and relevant topic, a very good review of the literature and a versatile econometric analysis.
Key Study Comments and Recommendations
1. Clarify the type of inequality for main text of research. Incidentally, this is income inequality, but often it is just “inequality”. These are not the same.
2. Poverty is closely linked to economic inequality. It is likely that poverty may be also very important factor for rising of crimes, as well as income inequality. At the beginning of the work, it is necessary to describe the relevance and theoretical frame of choosing only unemployment and income inequality.
3. Consider in theory all factors that can affect crimes, including factors of direct administrative regulation to crimes: the level of development of the legislative and judicial system, the quality of work and financing of police (law enforcement system), corruption, etc.
4. It is not very clear why section 2.1. is named as «Theoretical channels of monetary policy and income and wealth inequality». What does it mean and how the "monetary policy" is this reflected in the section 2.1.?
5. How is a theoretical part of section 2.1. related to regression analysis in the subsequent part of the work?
6. What is the measurement (in what units it can be measured) of "idiosyncratic psychological cost" in the context of section 2.1.
7. The theoretical formulas in lines 162 and 182 require some refinement (should be specified). It seems that there are logical errors there. It is not clear from the mathematical point of view how to interpret formula #1. Perhaps, it should be rewritten in more universal look as: ? = ? (??) − ? (?) or something like that. That would mean the corresponding interrelations between probabilities and aspiration to receive normal work and to receive money in the criminal way. In this case, formula 4 (inequality) can be described as equality and become a model with more universal meaning. In the current form, formula 4 looks like a condition for committing crimes due to economic gain. What if left side of inequation become more than right from mathematical point of view?
8. How do "c" and "S" factors relate to the law enforcement system and budgetary spending on it?
9. In lines 756-773, the authors conclude that the results obtained in their work coincide with the conclusions from other works. It will be very informative for section of results and discussion if authors will make in tabular form comparisons of their results and the results of other authors concerning the relations “how 1% of the growth of (income?) inequality and 1% of the increase in unemployment increase the number of crimes (murders).
10. The authors chose murders as an indicator of crimes. Maybe it makes sense to name the research and adjust its main text with this definition (murder)? Did other authors choose the same measurement of crimes?
11. There is probably a certain (specific) conditional "average norm" of crimes and an “excess part” that can be dependent on changes in socio-economic factors, such as the authors investigate. By analogy with the concept of natural unemployment (unemployment cannot be zero). What do the authors think about this in the context of their research at the stages of model building and conclusions?
12. How the authors can explain the results obtained in the study using the example of Figure 1: “Graphic analysis of the mean Gini-index, youth-employment and crimes, 1994-2019”. From this figure, it is obvious that for individual countries the dependencies between the studied indicators can have very significant difference. Are these conclusions obtained by the authors equally true for countries such as (for example) Rwanda and Lesotho and the politicians of these countries should focus on the same average dependence for their regulative policy?
13. There is a theory in empirical studies of the relationship between income inequality and economic growth, concerning so called optimal level of income inequality. Above him, any increase in income inequality will slow down economic growth and vice versa. How this idea can be used in the author's study. Is there a similar relationship between income inequality and crime rates?
14. There are some typos on the text, including in tables and in applications, needed to be fixed.
15. It is necessary to describe the weaknesses of the study and the possible directions of further research.
16. Authors poorly executed the reference list. There are some doubts that all sources were mentioned in it correctly (e.g. lines 887-889).
Author Response
Please see the attachment
Author Response File: 
Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 2 Report
Dear Authors,
Congratulations! The paper is very relevant and represents an important contribution to defining appropriate long run policies.
However, I think it could be improved, with a minor revision. For this review you can consider the attached file with my comments.
Some references are not listed in the respective section and I have marked them in the file.
Best wishes.
Comments for author File: Comments.pdf
Author Response
Please see the attachment
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 3 Report
The paper is one that is sure to attract the attention of the scientific community, and not only it. The authors are exploring a place that generates useful ideas, especially for decision-makers regarding the income policy and the management of the unemployment, even in public education policies and other economic-social policies. The issues that are addressed in the working paper are relevant to Africa and not only in achieving the goals of sustainable development, especially the Goal 8 about promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment and decent work for all, and Goal 10: Reduce inequality within and among countries.
The work addresses a topic that is unfortunately still current and at the same time painful for many people, especially workers from all over the world.
The structure of the manuscript is relatively clear. The quality of the writing is generally quite good.
The work follows a well-known methodologies and theories, with significant innovation by mixes/ compositions of them in order to obtain the results, and it is original by applying the model to the specific case of emergent economies on Africa.
Observations (O) and suggestions (S):
O1. The title is quite long and makes explicit reference to only one of the 4 models used in the research.
S1. Dropping the phrase "A Panel VAR approach" and/or replacing it with "a mixed of models approach" and/or dropping the mention of the coverage area because it will be presented in the abstract and, later, in the paper.
Suggested title: "Mix of Methods for Assessing the Impact of Income Inequality and Unemployment on Crime” or ”Composed Assessment of the Impact of Income Inequality and Unemployment on Crime in Emerging African Economies"
O2. Fiscal policy, as it is said in the abstract, and as we all know, is the one that relates more strongly to income policy and which, moreover, has an important role in the redistribution of income in the economy. I think the two questions from row 121, 122 should be reformulated. For the subsequent statement (from lines 122, 123), the authors should explain what they mean by ”unorthodox monetary policy ”, and what is the value of the statement for the work.
S2: taking over the questions from lines 37-39 (Is a worsening labor market a breeding ground for crime? Does having a legitimate job reduce one's willingness to offend? Does the worsening of income inequality necessarily lead to crime?) because, it which actually receive an answer through the work presented.
O&S3: Point 2.1 of the paper "Theoretical channels of monetary policy and income and wealth inequality", in my opinion, does not make the connection with monetary policy, so I recommend reformulating this subtitle
O&S4: In line 208, referring to Edmark, it would be good to specify that the conclusion on income refers to a region and not to a person. Increasing the income of a region makes it attractive for criminality (thieves, for example), but increasing the income of a person does not cause him to steal, as one might understand.
O&S 5: Line 328, "his" is NOT clear to whom he refers. I suggest checking/correction.
O6: In point 3 of the paper, a subsection 3.1 is missing.
S6 A description of the Random Forest model and the corresponding data as used as a Machine Learning model in subsections 3.4 and 4.4
Suggestion to 3.4. more detailed presentation of the Random Forest model - the theoretical model
In subsection 4.4. the presentation of the results of the Machine Learning model (possibly rearranging lines 408-509) to respect the logical order of the presentation of the models and their results.
O&S7 For the Conclusions, I suggest abandoning the first paragraph (lines 740-755) because it presents the purpose and methods of the research that were stated in the abstract and introduction.
Congratulations to the authors for their work!
Continued success and many achievements.
Happy New Year 2023!
Author Response
Please see the attachment
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Round 2
Reviewer 1 Report
Data shown in figures is hadly readable due to very small font
Author Response
This has been adjusted in the manuscript
