The Structural Convergence of New Members of the European Union: An Input-Output Perspective
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Modeling Framework
3.1. Testing for Convergence
3.2. Characterizing Production Networks
4. Data
5. Results
5.1. Testing for Convergence at the Country Level
5.2. Testing for Convergence at Panel Data Level
6. Discussion of Results
7. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
GDP | Gross Domestic Product |
OECD | The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development |
STAN | Structural Analysis (Database) |
IO | Input-Output |
AR | Auto-regressive |
Appendix A. Testing for Unit Root at Country Level
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −2.777 | −2.737 * | −4.858 *** |
RHF | −1.800 | −1.645 | −2.402 |
F_c | −2.884 * | −2.859 * | −4.945 *** |
F_r | −1.779 | −1.628 | −2.375 |
T_av | −2.128 | −1.926 | −3.807 *** |
APL | −1.149 | −0.782 | −4.048 *** |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −2.511 | −2.496 | −1.794 |
RHF | −2.549 | −2.525 | −1.833 |
F_c | −2.522 | −2.515 | −1.827 |
F_r | −2.563 | −2.545 | −1.856 |
T_av | −3.052 ** | −3.082 ** | −2.773 |
APL | −2.466 | −2.426 | −2.297 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −1.771 | −1.522 | −4.417 *** |
RHF | −1.927 | −1.893 | −2.855 |
F_c | −1.744 | −1.488 | −4.541 *** |
F_r | −1.948 | −1.916 | −2.876 |
T_av | −2.973 ** | −2.935 ** | −2.924 |
APL | −2.649 * | −2.628 * | −2.297 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −2.024 | −1.929 | −3.631 ** |
RHF | −3.265 | −3.314 ** | −3.193 * |
F_c | −2.072 | −1.971 | −3.702 |
F_r | −3.191 ** | −3.251 ** | −3.140 ** |
T_av | −1.620 | −1.521 | −3.525 ** |
APL | −1.313 | −1.298 | −2.494 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −2.040 | −2.124 | −2.088 |
RHF | −1.027 | −1.009 | −2.069 |
F_c | −2.022 | −2.120 | −2.086 |
F_r | −1.036 | −1.014 | −2.097 |
T_av | −2.997 ** | −3.018 ** | −3.371 * |
APL | −1.694 | −1.781 | −2.115 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −3.684 *** | −4.609 *** | −1.770 |
RHF | −1.471 | −1.470 | −2.334 |
F_c | −3.960 *** | −4.797 *** | −1.701 |
F_r | −1.537 | −1.532 | −2.380 |
T_av | −2.684 * | −2.790 * | −3.893 *** |
APL | −1.845 | −1.890 | −2.356 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −2.446 | −2.354 | −2.738 |
RHF | −2.709 * | −2.746 * | −2.983 |
F_c | −2.516 | −2.422 | −2.841 |
F_r | −2.717 * | −2.754 * | −2.989 |
T_av | −2.377 | −2.326 | −2.371 |
APL | −1.858 | −1.869 | −1.945 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −4.495 *** | −5.711 *** | −3.219 * |
RHF | −3.143 ** | −3.128 ** | −2.943 |
F_c | −4.586 *** | −6.046 *** | −3.105 |
F_r | −3.125 ** | −3.108 ** | −2.911 |
T_av | −4.426 *** | −4.623 *** | −4.392 *** |
APL | −2.917 ** | −2.970 ** | −2.603 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips−Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −1.533 | −1.705 | −1.554 |
RHF | −2.406 | −2.347 | −3.626 ** |
F_c | −1.524 | −1.706 | −1.524 |
F_r | −2.953 ** | −2.962 ** | −4.109 *** |
T_av | −4.064 *** | −4.088 *** | −5.938 *** |
APL | −1.433 | −1.440 | −1.910 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −2.634 * | −2.898 ** | −2.484 |
RHF | −1.467 | −1.254 | −3.745 ** |
F_c | −2.724 * | −3.004 ** | −2.421 |
F_r | −1.536 | −1.349 | −3.754 ** |
T_av | −2.349 | −2.370 | −2.438 |
APL | −1.619 | −1.622 | −2.256 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −1.620 | −1.569 | −2.159 |
RHF | −0.625 | −0.587 | −1.729 |
F_c | −1.665 | −1.593 | −2.177 |
F_r | −0.524 | −0.477 | −1.680 |
T_av | −1.879 | −1.889 | −2.022 |
APL | −2.042 | −2.202 | −2.111 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −1.188 | −1.329 | −0.802 |
RHF | −0.751 | −0.966 | −1.866 |
F_c | −1.204 | −1.335 | −0.864 |
F_r | −0.754 | −0.965 | −1.913 |
T_av | −1.464 | −1.456 | −1.595 |
APL | −0.986 | −1.019 | −1.307 |
Variables | ADF | Phillips-Perron | GLS–ADF |
---|---|---|---|
RHB | −2.629 * | −2.957 ** | −1.666 |
RHF | −2.594 * | −2.530 | −2.691 |
F_c | −2.623 * | −2.902 ** | −1.593 |
F_r | −2.640 ** | −2.578 * | −2.752 |
T_av | −2.613 * | −2.490 | −3.642 ** |
APL | −1.722 | −1.728 | −2.152 |
Appendix B. The Sectors in the Input-Output Data
The Selection of Industries | ||
Industry Code | ISIC 4 Corresponding Division | Description |
D01T02 | 01, 02 | Agriculture, hunting, and forestry |
D03 | 3 | Fishing and aquaculture |
D05T06 | 05, 06 | Mining and quarrying, energy-producing products |
D07T08 | 07, 08 | Mining and quarrying, non-energy-producing products |
D09 | 9 | Mining support service activities |
D10T12 | 10, 11, 12 | Food products, beverages, and tobacco |
D13T15 | 13, 14, 15 | Textiles, textile products, leather, and footwear |
D16 | 16 | Wood and products of wood and cork |
D17T18 | 17, 18 | Paper products and printing |
D19 | 19 | Coke and refined petroleum products |
D20 | 20 | Chemical and chemical products |
D21 | 21 | Pharmaceuticals, medicinal, chemical, and botanical products |
D22 | 22 | Rubber and plastic products |
D23 | 23 | Other non-metallic mineral products |
D24 | 24 | Basic metals |
D25 | 25 | Fabricated metal products |
D26 | 26 | Computer, electronic, and optical equipment |
D27 | 27 | Electrical equipment |
D28 | 28 | Machinery and equipment, nec |
D29 | 29 | Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers |
D30 | 30 | Other transport equipment |
D31T33 | 31, 32, 33 | Manufacturing; repair and installation of machinery and equipment |
D35 | 35 | Electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply |
D36T39 | 36, 37, 38, 39 | Water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities |
D41T43 | 41, 42, 43 | Construction |
D45T47 | 45, 46, 47 | Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles |
D49 | 49 | Land transport and transport via pipelines |
D50 | 50 | Water transport |
D51 | 51 | Air transport |
D52 | 52 | Warehousing and support activities for transportation |
D53 | 53 | Postal and courier activities |
D55T56 | 55, 56 | Accommodation and food service activities |
D58T60 | 58, 59, 60 | Publishing, audiovisual, and broadcasting activities |
D61 | 61 | Telecommunications |
D62T63 | 62, 63 | IT and other information services |
D64T66 | 64, 65, 66 | Financial and insurance activities |
D68 | 68 | Real estate activities |
D69T75 | 69 to 75 | Professional, scientific, and technical activities |
D77T82 | 77 to 82 | Administrative and support services |
D84 | 84 | Public administration and defense; compulsory social security |
D85 | 85 | Education |
D86T88 | 86, 87, 88 | Human health and social work activities |
D90T93 | 90, 91, 92, 93 | Arts, entertainment, and recreation |
D94T96 | 94, 95, 96 | Other service activities |
1 | Nominal convergence refers to the convergence of variables like inflation or interest rates, whereas real convergence refers to real GDP (per capita) convergence. |
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Country | Sample | Observations |
---|---|---|
Bulgaria | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Czech Rep. | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Croatia | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Cyprus | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Estonia | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Hungary | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Latvia | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Lithuania | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Malta | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Poland | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Romania | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Slovakia | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Slovenia | 1995–2018 | 24 |
Country | Results |
---|---|
Bulgaria | Convergence for almost all measures for at least one test |
Czech Rep. | Partial evidence |
Croatia | No convergence |
Cyprus | Convergence for almost all measures for at least one test |
Estonia | No convergence |
Hungary | Partial evidence |
Latvia | No convergence |
Lithuania | Convergence for almost all measures for at least one test |
Malta | Partial evidence |
Poland | Partial evidence |
Romania | No convergence |
Slovakia | No convergence |
Slovenia | Convergence for almost all measures for at least one test |
Variables | Levin–Lin–Chu | Harris–Tzavalis | Im–Pesaran–Shin | Breitung | Fisher |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RHB | −7.3927 *** | −3.4435 *** | −3.2370 *** | 0.1643 | 74.9486 *** |
RHF | −3.2239 *** | −8.0102 *** | −1.7536 ** | −0.5327 | 41.2521*** |
F_c | −7.6201 *** | −3.7167 ** | −3.3754 *** | 0.0642 | 80.7751 *** |
F_r | −3.2070 *** | −12.3619 *** | −1.8906 ** | −0.5216 ** | 44.0080 *** |
T_av | −4.7655 *** | −7.2195 *** | −4.0645 *** | −1.6789 ** | 74.9944 *** |
APL | −7.9745 *** | −1.5491 * | −1.3341 * | −0.197 | 31.0948 * |
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Caraiani, P. The Structural Convergence of New Members of the European Union: An Input-Output Perspective. Economies 2023, 11, 243. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11100243
Caraiani P. The Structural Convergence of New Members of the European Union: An Input-Output Perspective. Economies. 2023; 11(10):243. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11100243
Chicago/Turabian StyleCaraiani, Petre. 2023. "The Structural Convergence of New Members of the European Union: An Input-Output Perspective" Economies 11, no. 10: 243. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11100243
APA StyleCaraiani, P. (2023). The Structural Convergence of New Members of the European Union: An Input-Output Perspective. Economies, 11(10), 243. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11100243