Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Observed Climate Change Patterns and an Overview of Agriculture in CDZ
3. Agro-Ecological Features of the Sampled Districts/Regions
4. Research Methodology
4.1. Data
4.2. Theory: Ricardian Analysis
5. The Regression Results
Predications of Forecasted Climate Scenario on Net Farm Revenue ($ per ha)
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Mean | Std.Dev |
---|---|---|
Net Revenue ($ ha−1) | 554.969 | 204.815 |
Summer Temperature (°C) | 29.061 | 2.571 |
Monsoon Temperature (°C) | 28.166 | 2.363 |
Winter Temperature (°C) | 22.381 | 2.405 |
Squared Summer Temperature (°C) | 851.133 | 137.354 |
Squared Monsoon Temperature (°C) | 798.946 | 122.998 |
Squared Winter Temperature (°C) | 506.704 | 97.945 |
Summer Rain (mm) | 82.942 | 32.145 |
Monsoon rain (mm) | 163.562 | 46.753 |
Winter rain (mm) | 11.347 | 4.037 |
Squared Summer Rain (mm) | 7910.354 | 6710.132 |
Squared Monsoon rain (mm) | 28,933.308 | 15,930.675 |
Squared Winter rain (mm) | 145.025 | 98.063 |
Men headed household (1 = male, 0 = female) | 0.77 | 0.419 |
Size of the cropping area (ha) | 3.556 | 2.661 |
Farm practicing with draught cattle (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0.78 | 0.414 |
Distance to market (miles) | 9.23 | 3.989 |
Farm with access to irrigation (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0.77 | 0.420 |
Farms practicing compose & Manure (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0.81 | 0.395 |
Age of the household head (years) | 47.11 | 13.892 |
Size of the household (number) | 5.64 | 1.946 |
Educational status of the household head (1 = secondary, 0 = less than secondary education) | 0.66 | 0.495 |
Variables | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 (Parsimonious Model 2) |
---|---|---|---|
Summer Temperature (°C) | −7.179 | −13.325 | |
Monsoon Temperature (°C) | −7.917 | −16.719 | |
Winter Temperature (°C) | 211.841 | −12.178 | |
Squared Summer Temperature (°C) | −0.168 | −0.917 + | −0.220 *** |
Squared Monsoon Temperature (°C) | −1.392 ** | 0.177 | |
Squared Winter Temperature (°C) | −3.871 | −1.313 | |
Summer Rain (mm) | 4.894 | −1.527 | |
Monsoon rain (mm) | −14.922 ** | −0.636 + | 0.468 * |
Winter rain (mm) | 92.761 | −0.417 | |
Squared Summer Rain (mm) | −0.020 + | −0.017 + | −0.009 *** |
Squared Monsoon rain (mm) | 0.050 * | 0.032 | |
Squared Winter rain (mm) | −4.421 | −3.796 | |
Men headed household (1 = male, 0 = female) | 11.628 | ||
Size of the cropping areas (ha) | −29.259 ** | −23.390 * | |
Squared size of the cropping areas(ha) | 2.060 ** | 1.620 + | |
Educational status of the household head (1 = secondary, 0 = less than secondary) | 51.809 * | 50.466 ** | |
Farm practicing with draught cattle (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 71.562 ** | 54.408 ** | |
Distance to market (miles) | −2.155 | ||
Squared distance to market (miles) | −0.327 | ||
Farm with access to irrigation (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 190.988 *** | 190.473 *** | |
Farms practicing compose & Manure (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 62.140 ** | 85.051 *** | |
Age (years) | 2.086 | ||
Squared age (years) | −0.016 | ||
Size of the household (number) | 23.074 | ||
Squared size of household (number) | −2.285 | −0.493 + | |
Constant (Intercept) | −214.337 | 129.845 | 517.641 |
Observation | 425 | 425 | 425 |
R-Squared | 0.156 | 0.471 | 0.438 |
F-test | 8.515 * | 16.221 *** | 32.297 *** |
Region | Temperature (°C) | Rainfall (mm) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Annual | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Annual | |
PCM | ||||||||
Value in 2020-39 | 0.97 | 0.68 | 0.77 | 0.81 | −3 | −1 | −8 | −4 |
Value in 2040-59 | 1.35 | 1.04 | 1.22 | 1.2 | 12.7 | 6.8 | −5.6 | 4.6 |
Value in 2060-79 | 2.14 | 1.84 | 1.99 | 1.99 | 22 | 11 | −5 | 9 |
Value in 2080-99 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | −14 | 5 |
CGCM3 | ||||||||
Value in 2020-39 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 5.2 |
Value in 2040-59 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 9.3 | 20.8 | 1.9 | 10.7 |
Value in 2060-79 | 2.65 | 2.51 | 2.84 | 2.67 | 22.5 | 19 | −1.2 | 13.4 |
Value in 2080-99 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 23.9 | 32.1 | 0.5 | 18.8 |
CSIRO | ||||||||
Value in 2020-39 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | −10.6 | 12.9 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
Value in 2040-59 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | −10.1 | 20.9 | −2.2 | 2.9 |
Value in 2060-79 | 3.05 | 2.41 | 2.5 | 3.2 | −11 | 22 | −3 | 3 |
Value in 2080-99 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | −19 | 49 | −3 | 9 |
Scenario Projection | Temperature Effects | Rainfall Effects | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | |
pcm20-39 | −12.9253 | −11.3689 | −9.37706 | 4.581 | 0.436 | 3.336 |
pcm40-59 | −17.99 | −17.39 | −14.86 | −19.3334 | −2.97261 | 2.328872 |
pcm60-79 | −28.57 | −30.84 | −24.19 | −33.0167 | −4.88543 | 2.037754 |
pcm80-100 | −45.9241 | −46.0207 | −36.6071 | −19.4177 | −6.7856 | 5.964477 |
cgcm3_20-39 | −19.9875 | −18.3909 | −17.0492 | −7.1769 | −4.7088 | −0.0417 |
cgcm3_40-59 | −25.00 | −29.35 | −22.67 | −14.2011 | −9.0688 | −0.7923 |
cgcm3_60-79 | −35.33 | −41.97 | −34.62 | −34.3306 | −8.26326 | 0.493901 |
cgcm3_80-100 | −45.7545 | −55.3093 | −45.8658 | −36.5302 | −13.9871 | −0.19457 |
csiro_20-39 | −19.9875 | −16.719 | −9.7424 | 16.1862 | −5.6244 | 1.3344 |
csiro_40-59 | −29.04 | −28.61 | −19.63 | 15.34708 | −9.1094 | 0.929108 |
csiro_60-79 | −40.62 | −40.33 | −30.40 | 16.04482 | −9.80657 | 1.307409 |
csiro_80-100 | −59.7436 | −55.4882 | −38.5124 | 29.41234 | −21.4432 | 1.268073 |
Climatic Scenarios | 2020–2039 | 2040–2059 | 2060–2079 | 2080–2099 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Changes of temperature on crop net revenue (% changes) | ||||||||||||
Climate change model/Seasons | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Summer | Monsoon | Winter |
PCM | −10.0 | −8.8 | −7.2 | −13.9 | −13.4 | −11.5 | −22.1 | −23.8 | −18.7 | −35.5 | −35.5 | −28.3 |
CGCM3 | −15.4 | −14.2 | −13.2 | −19.3 | −22.7 | −17.5 | −27.3 | −32.4 | −26.7 | −35.3 | −42.7 | −35.4 |
CSIRO | −15.4 | −12.9 | −7.5 | −22.4 | −22.1 | −15.2 | −31.4 | −31.1 | −23.5 | −46.1 | −42.9 | −29.7 |
Changes of precipitation on crop net revenue (% changes) | ||||||||||||
Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | Summer | Monsoon | Winter | |
PCM | 3.5 | 0.3 | 2.6 | −14.9 | −2.3 | 1.8 | −25.5 | −3.8 | 1.6 | −15.0 | −5.2 | 4.6 |
CGCM3 | −5.5 | −3.6 | 0.0 | −11.0 | −7.0 | −0.6 | −26.5 | −6.4 | 0.4 | −28.2 | −10.8 | −0.2 |
CSIRO | 12.5 | −4.3 | 1.0 | 11.9 | −7.0 | 0.7 | 12.4 | −7.6 | 1.0 | 22.7 | −16.6 | 1.0 |
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Tun Oo, A.; Van Huylenbroeck, G.; Speelman, S. Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach. Climate 2020, 8, 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010009
Tun Oo A, Van Huylenbroeck G, Speelman S. Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach. Climate. 2020; 8(1):9. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010009
Chicago/Turabian StyleTun Oo, Aung, Guido Van Huylenbroeck, and Stijn Speelman. 2020. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach" Climate 8, no. 1: 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010009