Climate Change and Its Impact on Natural Resources and Rural Livelihoods: Gendered Perspectives from Naryn, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Climate change poses significant threats to rural communities in Kyrgyzstan, particularly for agriculture, which relies heavily on natural resources. In Naryn Province, rising temperatures and increasing natural hazards amplify vulnerabilities, especially in high mountain areas. Addressing these challenges requires understanding both environmental factors and the perceptions of affected communities, as these shape adaptive responses. This study enhances understanding of climate change impacts on communities in Naryn Province by combining environmental and social assessments through a gendered lens, with a particular focus on women. Environmental data, including air temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and satellite-derived vegetation indices, were analyzed to evaluate changes in vegetation and water resources. Social data were collected through interviews with 298 respondents (148 women and 150 men) across villages along the Naryn River, with chi-square analysis used to examine gender-specific perceptions and impacts on livelihoods. The results indicated a noticeable rise in temperatures and a slight decline in precipitation over recent decades, affecting vegetation and grazing areas near settlements. While respondents of both genders reported similar observations, differences emerged in how changes affect their roles and activities, with localized variations linked to household and agricultural responsibilities. The findings highlight the need for inclusive adaptation strategies that address diverse experiences and priorities, providing a foundation for equitable and effective climate resilience measures.

1. Introduction

Climate change is occurring globally and is already affecting humans and natural systems [1]. Most mountainous regions throughout the world are highly susceptible to climate warming due to their complex orography, which exerts variable effects on atmospheric circulation patterns and compromises the efficacy of global circulation models [2,3]. A recent global assessment of long-term climate changes in mountainous areas revealed weak elevational influences on temperature and precipitation changes since 1900; however, many local mountain areas warmed faster than proximate lowlands, while precipitation increased in some lowlands with little increase at higher elevations [4].

Despite these challenges and uncertainties, high mountain areas, especially those with significant cryosphere components, appear to be experiencing some of the greatest impacts on ecosystem services due to climate change, disproportionally affecting poorer residents [5,6]. These impacts are becoming particularly severe in developing countries where millions of people depend on natural ecosystems for their livelihoods and well-being [7]. The reliance of these residents on agricultural land, forests, and water makes them highly vulnerable to environmental change. In Central Asia, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on agriculture, particularly for rural populations [8,9]. Manifestations such as land degradation, frequent floods, and droughts reduce productivity [10]. Droughts have a significant impact on landscapes and agricultural production in Central Asia, a region that relies heavily on artificial irrigation from mountain rivers [11]. The Tien Shan and Pamir mountains are the main water sources in Central Asia, with drainage systems fed by snowmelt, glaciers, and rainfall [12].

Within Kyrgyzstan, agriculture continues to be a major contributor to the gross domestic product (GDP). More than 60% of the country’s population lives in rural areas, and the agricultural sector employs more than 36% of the population [13]. Kyrgyzstan’s agricultural production is dominated by smallholder farmers in remote and mountainous rural areas [14]. These farmers rely heavily on mixed-crop agriculture with irrigation and small-scale livestock production [15], making them highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Glaciers are crucial to the freshwater supply of the country and the region. Precipitation peaks in spring, occurring mainly in the mountains, and glaciers store this moisture and release it during the hottest season when agriculture needs it most for irrigation [16]. Although glacial runoff accounts for only about 5% of the water in the rivers of the Syr Darya basin, glaciers contribute about 15% of Kyrgyzstan’s total runoff [17]. This figure can double during periods of intense glacier melt [18]. In the Tien Shan, an estimated decrease in terrestrial water storage of 3.72 mm y⁻¹ from 2003 to 2013 was attributed to glacial shrinkage and loss of snow cover, with the largest changes in the eastern and middle Tien Shan [12]. These water storage dynamics in the cryosphere have been increasing runoff in most Tien Shan catchments since the mid-20th century [19]; however, as glaciers reach tipping points and snow accumulation declines, it is projected that certain catchments will experience decreases in runoff later in the 21st century [20]. These changes may be associated with the increasing frequency of natural hazards such as debris flows [21], landslides [22], and subsurface waterlogging due to localized increases in shallow groundwater [23]. Such events are expected to become more frequent in the context of climate change, leading to an increase in hazardous natural processes where water is the triggering mechanism. The increasing number of potentially hazardous mountain lakes, along with natural factors contributing to their destabilization [24], poses a significant threat to the high mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan. Such events have previously inflicted significant economic damage [25,26].

Numerous studies show direct links between climate change, glaciers, quantities of irrigation water [16,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35], and impact on downstream agricultural areas [36,37]. Climate change is expected to increase mean annual temperatures and alter the seasonal distribution of precipitation in Central Asia [1,38], affecting natural resources such as pastures, fields, and horticultural crops, and reducing water availability during the growing season due to higher irrigation demands [39].

Understanding climate change and its impacts is crucial for rural communities, but translating this knowledge into effective solutions depends on many factors [40]. Rural mountain communities often lack the knowledge and resources to implement sustainable adaptation measures. Climate extremes vary temporally and spatially, making these communities particularly vulnerable due to their limited resources and adaptive capacities [10]. In addition, the impacts of climate change vary across agroecological zones and households due to factors such as gender, age, resource endowment, wellbeing, experience, and skills [40]. These factors influence the adaptivity of rural populations engaged in agricultural production, resulting in different capacities to adapt to climate change.

Considering gender in relation to climate change adaptation is essential for planning and designing interventions and strategies to build resilience [41]. While the perceptions held by rural men and women who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods may overlap, gender differences can affect their ability to adapt [42]. Men and women perceive climate-related changes through the lens of their social roles and responsibilities [43]. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, men are primarily involved in ploughing, planting, irrigation, harvesting, and the rearing and grazing of livestock. Women, on the other hand, are more likely to be involved in small-scale or subsistence farming (mainly on homestead plots) and certain aspects of livestock production such as daily milking, feeding, and processing dairy products. Rural women tend to have fewer opportunities to adopt new agricultural technologies and influence consumer and market preferences [44]. The division of labor not only affects the different genders’ perceptions of climate change, but also their ability to respond to it. These differences contribute to the increased vulnerability of some women to the adverse impacts of climate events, compared with men [40].

Mountains are an important habitat for different vegetation and wildlife species while also providing ecosystem services to many local communities [45,46,47]. These ecosystems are fragile and vulnerable to changing abiotic factors like climate and hydrological conditions [48,49,50,51,52,53,54]. The ecosystem services provided to local communities are crucial for their livelihoods, including agriculture, pastoralism, and the collection of firewood and nontimber forest products [15,55,56,57]. Mountain areas are also prone to different natural hazards that are exacerbated by climate change and can be controlled with nature-based solutions [21,58,59,60].

The impact of climate change on the environment in these regions has been the focus of many studies dealing with the direct impact of climatic factors on vegetation resources, as well as indirect effects via glaciers, snowmelt, runoff, and reduced accumulation of snow [7,50,61,62]. In catchments with extensive glacial coverage, warming temperatures will increase summer runoff until ‘tipping points’ are reached whereby glaciers become disconnected from streams. Snowmelt is likely to remain the dominant runoff source, especially in catchments without glaciers, but will decline in some regions as warming progresses [16]. However, local communities are the ones experiencing the impact of climate change and their perceptions of this phenomenon need to be studied as well.

Our study introduces a novel approach to assessing climate change impacts on communities in Naryn Province by integrating environmental and social perspectives, which is an uncommon combination in existing research. Uniquely, we examine both biophysical data and gendered social perceptions to provide a holistic understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation needs. Given the region’s reliance on agriculture and natural resources, its communities are highly vulnerable to climate change. For the social study, we conducted in-depth interviews with residents in nine villages along the Naryn River for social study, while the environmental study involved collecting air temperature, rainfall, and river discharge data from local stations, which were analyzed along with satellite-derived vegetation indices. This approach allowed us to explore climate impacts on vegetation and compare them with the flow patterns of the rivers that provide irrigation water.

Furthermore, our study provides new insights by analyzing gendered perceptions of climate change through statistical analysis, including the chi-squared test. This approach allowed us to identify significant differences in how men and women perceive and respond to climate risks, shedding light on unique challenges and adaptation strategies among women. While rural women in Naryn play a key role in managing household resources and agricultural activities, their perspectives are often underrepresented in climate discussions. By incorporating these insights, our findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of local vulnerabilities and adaptation needs. The results offer valuable guidance for developing inclusive climate policies while serving as a potential model for other mountainous regions facing similar environmental challenges.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area, Climate Characteristics, Land Use, and Environmental Risks

The study area covered the Naryn River valley in Naryn Province, Kyrgyz Republic, located 74.6° to 77.3° E and 41.1° to 41.7° N. This elevated river gorge in the Inner Tien-Shan forms the headwaters of the Syr-Darya river, a key water source in Central Asia. The lowest elevations are 2200 m a.s.l in the east and 1500 m in the west. The basin is characterized by an insufficiently humid climate. Annual precipitation averages 208 mm (period of observation from 1924 to 2023 at the Naryn meteorological station), 75% of which falls as rain during the warm season. Maximum rainfall occurs in May and June, and the minimum in January and December. Winters experience light snowfall with average snow depths of 24–27 cm and a snowpack duration of 115–120 days. The average annual air temperature is 3.3 °C and winters last 140–150 days. The average temperature of the warm period is 13.5 °C, the average temperature of the cold period is −6.6 °C, and the absolute minimum is −25.8 °C. The duration of the warmest period with average daily air temperature above 10 °C is 154–150 days, the duration of the frost-free period in the lower zone is 120–150 days and in elevated places, 80–90 days. The average temperature in July is 17.5 °C, with the maximum temperature recorded in August at 21.8 °C (Figure 1).

Land use in this area includes mountain forests, mainly conifers such as spruce, and riparian forests along the Naryn River, mainly deciduous trees such as birch and poplar species (Figure 2a,b). Agricultural land is used primarily for cultivating legume fodder crops, grains, and vegetables (Figure 2e), with an increasing emphasis on fodder crops such as sainfoin. Crop production in this area is predominately dependent on extensive irrigation, while grasslands and meadows depend solely on rainfall (Figure 2f). Built-up areas consist of Naryn and surrounding villages, where houses typically have small trees in their kitchen gardens (Figure 2g).

The Naryn Region is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, with channel and slope processes dominating hazard impacts during the past decade. Debris flows occur approximately every two years in the lower Naryn River valley and are primarily storm-induced, while glacial and mixed-origin flows in the upper reaches recur every 6–10 years [63]. Landslides concentrated in foothills near the Naryn River are affected by geological instability, flooding, heavy rainfall, sparse vegetation, seismic activity, and human interference [64]. Meteorological hazards such as strong winds, heavy precipitation, hail, and frost frequently impact agriculture, flattening crops, eroding soil, and causing frost damage, with hail occurring for 2–4 days annually in key agricultural areas. Debris flows peak during snowmelt (March–May), glacier melt, high-altitude temperature anomalies (June–August), and heavy rainfall, while storm-induced mudflows dominate from March to June. Rockfalls and landslides are prevalent in seismically active and unstable zones, exacerbated by human activity and heavy rainfall. Together, these hazards highlight the significant climate-related and geological risks faced in the high-mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan.

2.2. Data Analysis Approach

We conducted two complementary research approaches to achieve our objectives: (1) remotely sensed vegetation and climate trend analysis and (2) a sociological survey. The combination of these analyses allowed us to investigate both the biophysical and human dimensions of climate change impacts on rural livelihoods. Specifically, the trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate data provided insights into long-term environmental changes, while the household survey offered a ground-level perspective of how communities perceive and respond to these changes. The integration of these approaches helped to establish links between observed environmental trends and their socioeconomic implications.

To assess trends in vegetation development, we performed a linear trend analysis on NDVI for each pixel using annual median NDVI data from 2000 to 2023. We used annual median values to avoid seasonality in the data, which would have artificially decreased the statistical significance of the results (p-value). The median, in contrast to the mean, represents actual NDVI values and helps to avoid the influence of outliers at the edges, such as may be caused by artifacts in satellite images. This analysis was performed with the ‘Cellwise Trend for Grids’ module of SAGA GIS 9.6.0 [65] and helped map the spatial distribution of NDVI trends across the study area.

The sociological survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and inferential tests. The questionnaire responses were systematically coded for quantitative analysis, and chi-square tests were performed to identify statistically significant gender differences in perceptions of climate change and adaptive strategies. The integration of these two analytical approaches allowed us to explore how household perceptions aligned with or differed from the observed environmental changes, revealing potential gaps or mismatches in methods of adaptation.

2.3. Data Sources and Collection Procedures

2.3.1. Secondary Data Acquisition and Preparation

We utilized multiple sources of secondary data to examine environmental trends in the study area. NDVI was used to approximate the development of vegetation in the study area. Monthly NDVI images were calculated using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 data from 2000 to 2023. The satellite’s revisiting frequency before 2000 was not sufficient to provide monthly images. The NDVI calculations were performed in Google Earth Engine [66]. To ensure consistency across the datasets, NDVI values from Landsat 8 were recalculated to match those from Landsat 5 and 7 using the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) equation [67]. NDVI conversion from the Operational Land Imager (OLI) to the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) was derived through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, as follows:

ETM+ = −0.0110 + 0.9690 OLI

(1)

where ETM+ refers to Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (Landsat 7), and OLI refers to Operational Land Imager (Landsat 8).

Cloud cover on images was cut using the cloud mask provided with the images. If several images were available for a single month, then the images were combined and the maximal value of each pixel was applied to further decrease the impact of clouds and aerosols. Holes in the images were closed and missing images were substituted with moving averages of the previous and subsequent images [54].

Climate and the Naryn River discharge data were purchased from Kyrgyz Hydromet. These data included the mean monthly values of temperature and precipitation measured at Naryn town weather station for the period 2000–2023. Naryn River monthly discharge data included the period 2000–2022 and were measured at Naryn town. Thus, we extrapolated the climatic and runoff measurements from Naryn town to the entire research area.

We used ESA WorldCover (‘ESA/WorldCover/v100’) data to distinguish land use types and ecosystems, resampling the original 10 m resolution to 30 m to match the Landsat imagery. For resampling, the most frequent land cover class within each 30 m cell was selected as the final classification. These data allowed us to analyze ecosystem-specific NDVI responses to climate and the Naryn River discharge. The dataset included classes such as tree cover, shrubland, grassland, cropland, built-up, bare/sparse vegetation, snow and ice, permanent water bodies, herbaceous wetland, and moss and lichen. For NDVI analysis, we excluded snow and ice and permanent water bodies because they lacked vegetation. The “tree cover” class was divided into “coniferous forest” and “riparian forest” based on proximity to the river, reflecting different ecosystem types. This process resulted in nine land cover classes for analysis.

The climatic data were acquired from Kyrgyz Hydromet and from the open-source Climate Data Center (CDC) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), in addition to those recorded at the weather station in Naryn town. The Naryn River runoff data were acquired from Kyrgyz Hydromet and from the open-source Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). Runoff was also measured at Naryn town. The temperature data included monthly mean daytime values, precipitation referred to the monthly sum of precipitation, and the runoff was the mean monthly discharge in m³s⁻¹. The time series covered the period January 1940 through December 2022. To understand the trends and seasonal changes in temperature, precipitation, and Naryn River discharge in our study area we conducted trend analysis and seasonal decomposition of these data. We applied seasonal–trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) [68] implemented in “statsmodels.tsa.seasonal.STL” (statsmodels 0.15.0 (+518)) to decompose the climate and runoff time series into seasonal and trend components. We used the following settings for the STL decomposition: period = 120, seasonal = 7, trend = none, low_pass = none, seasonal_deg = 0, trend_deg = 1, low_pass_deg = 1, robust = false, seasonal_jump = 1, trend_jump = 1, and low_pass_jump = 1.

2.3.2. Primary Data Collection

A sociological survey was conducted from April to May 2024 to assess household-level perceptions of climate change and adaptive strategies. The study utilized a structured questionnaire administered to 298 households, representing approximately 15–20% of the total households in each village. Local officials assisted in ensuring a representative sample. To achieve comprehensive coverage, respondents were selected from different areas within each village, ensuring spatial representation across the community. Interviews were conducted face-to-face in a private setting, with respondents interviewed individually to ensure independent responses. Only a negligible number of households included both spouses, as the study focused on broader community perspectives rather than intra-household differences. This approach minimized bias and ensured a diverse range of insights.

The questionnaire explored respondents’ observations of changes in temperature and precipitation, the perceived impacts of these on agricultural productivity and household income, and the adaptive strategies they had adopted in response to any changes. It also examined the challenges they faced in implementing these strategies and the role of gender in shaping climate experiences and adaptive approaches. To minimize response bias, the questionnaire included mostly open-ended questions that allowed respondents to freely describe observed climate-related changes, particularly regarding temperature and rainfall trends during the previous five years. By focusing on recent years, we wanted to ensure that respondents’ memories were as accurate as possible. In addition, respondents detailed the perceived impact of these trends on their agricultural activities and broader household livelihoods.

To ensure gender balance and cultural sensitivity, both male and female enumerators conducted the interviews. The enumerators were highly experienced, having previously worked on multiple sociological and climate-related surveys in the region.

3. Results

3.1. Climatic Data

The Naryn River reached its maximum water discharge in June to July (235–244 m³s⁻¹; monthly average of 2000–2022), and the minimum discharge occurs from December to March (30 m³s⁻¹) (Figure 3a). The interannual variability of discharge is largest in June, whereas during low flows of winter, discharge variability is low (Figure 3a). Precipitation and temperature data from 2000 to 2022 were assessed for comparison with the current situation. Precipitation reached its maximum from May to June (54 mm per month) with high interannual variability; minimum precipitation occurred in January (9 mm per month) with low interannual variability (Figure 3b). Temperatures reached their maximum in July to August with an interannual mean of 18 °C, and the minimum temperature occurred in January (−14.6 °C). The variability in interannual temperature during this 23-year period was not so great as that of precipitation or discharge (Figure 3c).

3.2. Land Cover Classes

The largest land cover class in our study area was found to be grassland (5526 km²), characterized by vast open areas on gently rolling slopes in the lower parts of the river valley (Figure 2f and Figure 4). The “coniferous forest” class (201 km²) mainly comprises spruce forests on the northern slopes of the Naryn-Too range and riparian forests along the Naryn River. Riparian forest (6 km²) is represented by poplar, birch, and willow along the Naryn River. Croplands (279 km²) are large areas along the Naryn River and its tributaries that rely on irrigation from these sources. Human settlements are represented by the “built-up” (24 km²) class, and these are also distributed along the Naryn River and its main tributaries and naturally, close to croplands. “Bare/sparse vegetation” (1517 km²) was found to be the second largest class, representing mainly grasslands that have been degraded due to overgrazing and stony areas on steep slopes, at high elevations, or near streams. The “snow and ice” (69 km²) class indicates areas covered with perennial snow fields and glaciers near mountain summits. The “moss and lichen” (622 km²) class represents highland vegetation. Permanent water bodies (49 km²) include the Naryn River and small highland lakes. The very small “herbaceous wetland” (0.32 km²) category mainly occurs in the lower portion of our study area close to the Naryn River, in one of the former meanders.

The bare land and sparsely vegetated areas naturally showed low NDVI values and very narrow annual variation profiles (Figure 5a), only slightly greater than those of snow and ice (Figure 5b). The built-up area, representing settlements, indicated the usual phenological pattern with high values in June and July, given the presence of house gardens and town vegetation (Figure 2g and Figure 5h). As expected, croplands showed great annual variability of NDVI connected to the annual crop cycle (Figure 5c). Grasslands displayed less prominent annual variability in NDVI, mostly because they are not artificially irrigated and experience constant grazing pressure (Figure 5d). Herbaceous wetlands showed slightly greater NDVI values in summer than grasslands, mainly because of water availability. The “moss and lichen class” on the highlands had very low summer values of NDVI, which was expected as these represent very low-lying vegetation with little biomass (Figure 5f).

Coniferous forests had the highest NDVI values of all classes, with a maximum in July and minimum in January (Figure 5i). This pattern emerged due to the phenology of the entire ecosystem, including the large biomass and height of the spruce trees and depression of NDVI in winter due to snow in canopies. Riparian forests had lower NDVI values compared with coniferous forests, but high values were retained throughout the summer mainly because of high summer temperatures and the availability of water (Figure 5j). Shrubland also showed high NDVI values in general, with a peak in July to August and minimum in January or February.

3.3. NDVI Trend Analysis

The linear trends of NDVI do not indicate a major decline from 2000 to 2023 (Figure 6). The areas with negative trends of NDVI are mainly the glaciers or perennial snowfields along the research area borders to the east, i.e., not vegetated areas. The areas with prominent positive trends include mountain slopes in the eastern part of the research area and areas along the Naryn River and its tributaries in the central and western research area, which are mainly croplands (Figure 4). Grasslands and bare land on flat areas in the central and western parts of the research area showed no trends (Figure 6).

The mean values for all the vegetation classes were positive (

Table 1. Mean NDVI trend by classes.

Surface Class	NDVI Annual Trend	Significance Level	Elevation m a.s.l. 1
Coniferous forest	0.004612	0.067362	2762
Riparian forest	0.00589	0.030165 *	1768
Shrubland	0.005653	0.05681	3007
Grassland	0.002702	0.070888	2448
Cropland	0.004568	0.045735 *	1876
Built-up	0.002751	0.093554	2016
Bare/sparce vegetation	0.00096	0.125454	2445
Herbaceous wetland	0.002102	0.172923	1582
Moss and lichen	0.000197	0.248986	3402

¹ m above sea level; (*) Statistical significance, p < 0.05.

), indicating that NDVI has been increasing in the research area over time. The greatest increases were observed in shrubland, cropland, and riparian forests, with the least increases in the “moss and lichen” and “bare/sparce vegetation” categories (Table 1).

3.4. Time Series Decomposition

The general trend of discharge was rather stable in the period 1940–1990. It showed a strong increase between 1990 and 2000 and then a decrease from 2000 through 2010 (Figure 7). A much smaller decrease then occurred from 2010 through 2023, which may have impacted perceptions.

The trend in temperature indicated a local decrease from 1940 to 1953 and a general increase during the rest of the period, with a more profound local increase from 2016 to 2023 (Figure 8).

The trends in precipitation have been highly variable with no constant directional change (Figure 9). A steep increase occurred from 1940 to 1950, followed by a stepwise decline through to 1977 and then a steady increase until 2011. There was an apparent decrease in interannual values between 2011 and 2023 (Figure 9). The seasonal component was found to be more irregular than the discharge or precipitation.

3.5. Results of Sociological Research

The study area comprised 850 households, with 299 (15–20% per village) participating in the survey. The average family size was five members. Over 90% of the agricultural land was pasture, while the remaining 10% was arable, including meadows. Households managed a mix of non-irrigated meadows and cultivated fields, with an average landholding of about 3 ha per household. Most arable land relied on Soviet-era irrigation channels, supporting fodder legumes, barley, and vegetable cultivation. Fodder crops dominated, covering 80% of cropland, although some villages increasingly grew tomatoes, cucumbers, and other cash crops due to favorable conditions. Average legume hay yields were 3.5–4 tons/ha, while cereals ranged from 1.5 to 2.2 tons/ha. Kitchen gardens (0.1–0.3 ha) primarily produced vegetables (potatoes, carrots, onions) and horticultural crops for home consumption.

Discussions with respondents revealed that livestock plays a central role in rural livelihoods, serving as the primary economic activity and main source of income for smallholder farming households. The average herd was 13 livestock units (where one unit corresponds to either one cow or horse, or five sheep or goats). Herds typically consisted of sheep, cattle, and horses bred for milk and meat production, with each type making up a roughly equal proportion. Many households rely on professional herders who practice transhumance grazing, moving livestock to highland summer pastures for several months each year. During the rest of the year, livestock graze on nearby pastures, meadows, and arable land, supplemented with winter fodder. However, limited availability of feed in winter often leads to significant weight loss in animals.

Respondents further highlighted the limited employment opportunities in villages, with public institutions providing the primary source of formal work. Salaries from these institutions, along with public pensions, make up a significant portion of household income. Seasonal migration to nearby towns and external migration were commonly mentioned as strategies to supplement income. Remittances from both internal and external migration have become increasingly important in recent years, contributing significantly to household finances and reducing reliance on agricultural activities.

Most respondents were middle-aged (36–55 years: 44.7% of the men, 52.7% of the women), followed by those aged 56–70 (26% of the men, 26.4% of the women). Younger adults (18–35) accounted for 24.7% of the men and 20.3% of the women, while only a few were >71 (4.7% of the men, 0.7% of the women). This similar age distribution between the sexes ensured reliable gender comparisons. Most respondents had a general secondary education (74% of men, 60% of women). Vocational education was reported by 15% of the men and 18% of the women. More of the women held university degrees (22% versus 10% of the men). Lower secondary education was rare (0.7% each), and only 0.7% of men lacked formal education, with no women in this category (Figure 10).

A significant majority of respondents perceived the winters as warmer, with 78.9% reporting warmer winters and only 1.7% perceiving colder winters. Similarly, 69.5% of respondents believed summers had been getting warmer, while only 1.3% reported cooler summers. Regarding autumn, 6.0% of respondents perceived warming, 65.4% reported no change, and 28.5% observed cooling, while 29.6% perceived warming in spring, 35.2% reported no change, and 35.2% observed springtime cooling. Perceptions of precipitation changes were consistent, with 86.7% to 88.9% of total respondents reporting a decrease, 8.4% to 12.6% observing no change, and only a small fraction noting an increase across all seasons, while chi-squared tests revealed no significant gender differences in perceptions of climate variables. However, the descriptive analysis indicated a clear trend: men and women both overwhelmingly perceived winters and summers as warmer and reported decreases in precipitation across most seasons. Respondents generally believed that summers and winters had been getting warmer, while spring and winter precipitation seemed to have been decreasing. A common observation among respondents was a reduction in snow cover, with earlier spring snowmelt even in high mountain areas and reduced soil moisture due to lower summer rainfall, which they believed negatively affected vegetation on both pasture and cropland. However, women provided more detailed observations related to their domestic and household activities. For example, they observed that water in containers (a vat or kettle) heated up much more quickly when left in the sun, and clothes dried faster when hung outdoors, which were changes they had not previously observed (

Table 2. Perception of changes in air temperature and precipitation in the past five years.

Change in Air Temperature
Spring
		Warmer (%)	No change (%)	Colder (%)	Total (%)		χ2	p-value
	Male (n = 150)	34.0	33.3	32.7	100		2.919	0.232
	Female (n = 148)	25.0	37.2	37.8	100
	Total (n = 298)	29.6	35.2	35.2	100
Summer
	Male	69.3	28.7	2.0	100		1.003	0.606
	Female	69.6	29.8	0.7	100
	Total	69.5	29.2	1.3	100
Autumn
	Male	6.0	60.7	33.3	100		3.500	0.174
	Female	6.1	70.3	23.6	100
	Total	6.0	65.5	28.5	100
Winter
	Male	82.0	16.0	2.0	100		2.426	0.297
	Female	75.7	23.0	1.3	100
	Total	78.9	19.4	1.7	100
Change in precipitation
Spring
		More (%)	No change (%)	Less (%)	Total (%)		χ2	p-value
	Male (n = 150)	0.7	12.6	86.7	100		0.098	0.952
	Female (n = 148)	0.7	11.5	87.8	100
	Total (n = 298)	0.7	12.1	87.2	100
Summer
	Male	0.7	12.6	86.7	100		0.248	0.884
	Female	0.7	10.8	88.5	100
	Total	0.7	11.7	87.6	100
Autumn
	Male	0.7	14.7	84.6	100		0.657	0.720
	Female	1.4	16.9	81.7	100
	Total	1.0	15.8	83.2	100
Winter
	Male	3.3	7.4	89.3	100		0.881	0.644
	Female	2.0	9.5	88.5	100
	Total	2.7	8.4	88.9	100
Severe weather
			Yes (%)	No (%)	Total (%)
	Male (n = 150)		14.7	85.3	100		12.6	0.000 ***
	Female (n = 148)		30.4	69.6	100
	Total (n = 298)		25.8	74.2	100

(***) Statistical significance, p < 0.001.

).

In contrast, perceptions of severe weather differed significantly between male and female respondents. While only 14.7% of male respondents expressed concern about severe weather, 30.4% of females reported similar concerns. This significant difference suggests that women are not only more concerned about the impact of severe weather but are also more likely to experience these events firsthand. Female respondents were more likely to report experiencing increasingly frequent severe fluctuations in temperature, indicating potential gender differences in vulnerability or exposure to severe weather within the community.

Among 180 respondents (111 males and 69 females), drought, debris flow, and wind gusts were the most frequently reported hazards, while hail, frost, forest fires, ice events, and air pollution were rarely mentioned (1% to 4.4%), indicating minimal gender differences and low perceived impact. Drought was the major concern of 76.6%% of men and 37.7% of women, probably due to men’s greater exposure during outdoor or agricultural work. These were followed debris flow (27.0% male, 44.9% female) and wind gusts (17.1% male, 36.2% female), with women perceiving these more frequently, possibly due to increased domestic responsibilities and the increasing frequency of events (Figure 11).

Out of 171 respondents (56 male and 115 female), notable gender differences emerged in terms of concerns related to drinking water, health issues, household workload, and energy use, all of which were perceived to be affected by climate change. Health concerns were more prevalent among women (39.1%) than men (25%), with women frequently citing allergies and gastrointestinal issues. Women’s caregiving roles were associated with increased medical expenses and dietary responsibilities and the need for higher-quality food, increasing financial stress. Concerns about drinking water showed a notable gender difference, with 50% of men and 20% of women identifying it as an issue. However, women were more proactive, addressing issues like drying springs and poor water quality by purchasing water filters. These actions highlight central role of women in adapting and mitigating the health impacts of climate change despite financial pressures. Furthermore, energy use showed a notable gender disparity, with 27.9% of women citing it as a climate-related concern needing adaptation, compared with only 3.6% of men. Sudden weather events like cold snaps in spring increase household tasks and expenses, prompting adjustments in heating. Some women reported reduced use of coal and dung and lower electricity bills due to warmer winters, easing financial pressures slightly. Climate change also increases domestic workloads, with 13% of men versus 21.4% of women reporting added tasks. In hazard-prone villages, clearing debris from yards and gardens compounds these burdens, further intensifying women’s responsibilities (Figure 12).

Across the total sample of 298 respondents, most perceived a decline in cropland yields (71.1%), kitchen garden yields (21.1%), and pasture productivity (72.1%), with very few reporting increases. Uncertainty varied, with 15.8% unsure about pasture productivity and 22.5% about plant diseases. Kitchen gardens showed a more mixed pattern, as 66.8% reported no changes and a small proportion (1.7%) noted increases. Irrigation was perceived as improving by 52.0% of respondents, while 39.3% saw no change and only 1.0% reported deterioration. Most respondents did not perceive major shifts in plant (68.8%) or animal diseases (54.7%), although 22.5% and 19.5% of respondents were uncertain about plant and animal disease trajectories, respectively.

Significant gender differences emerged in perceptions of field crop yields, garden yields, and pasture productivity. Among men, 21% reported no change in cropland productivity, while 78% noted decreases, citing higher summer temperatures and limited water availability, especially in villages along the Naryn River. Women’s responses were more varied: 64% observed declines, 27% reported no change, 1% noted an increase, and 7% were uncertain, often relying on their husbands’ observations. While men focused on the productivity of fields, women emphasized the added household burden of lower yields, particularly in financial planning for winter fodder.

Regarding kitchen garden yields, 74% of men reported no change, 20% noted a decrease, and none observed an increase, reflecting their focus on field crops rather than home gardens. In contrast, women’s responses were more varied: 59% reported no change, 10% observed increases, 22% noted decreases, and 8% were unsure. Women’s greater involvement in home gardening with more diverse crops is likely to have made them more aware of subtle climate impacts, with both positive and negative changes being noticed.

Men highlighted irrigation challenges, with water pumped directly from the river and high demand causing long delays, particularly in downstream villages. Rising temperatures have increased irrigation needs, but limited access often leaves fields underwatered, resulting in stunted crops. Poor soil quality, exacerbated by reliance on dung, further reduced productivity. Both genders expressed concerns about outdated agricultural infrastructure. Although respondents agreed that the Naryn River and its major tributaries provided sufficient water for irrigation, smaller tributaries were reported to have decreased availability of water. This caused difficulties in irrigating home gardens, with some residents resorting to using tap water.

Significant gender differences were found regarding the productivity of pasture. Most men (83%) reported a decrease in productivity, while smaller proportions (11%) noted no change or uncertainty (6%), reflecting their active involvement in grazing and livestock management. Women also reported declines (61%), but with more varied responses; 12% observed no change and 26% were unsure, often relying on secondhand information from their husbands. Both genders attributed declining productivity to rising temperatures and heatwaves. Increased livestock numbers were also highlighted by villagers as a factor intensifying grazing pressure on pastures.

Gendered perspectives on plant and animal diseases showed minimal differences. Concerns about plant diseases were low, with only 7% of both men and women reporting issues, although uncertainty was higher among women. Some mentioned increasing numbers of locusts due to hot summers, in addition to weed spread, bacterial outbreaks in tomatoes, and plant parasites like dodder flowers (Cuscuta australis) in legumes, raising concerns about crop health. Perceptions of animal diseases were similar, with around a quarter of both genders reporting problems, while more than half reported no issues. Both groups highlighted horse health issues (19% of men, 20% of women), including dry coughs and stillbirths, linked to drought conditions. Though climate change was not directly blamed for livestock diseases, increasing livestock numbers were cited as contributing to outbreaks (

Table 3. Perceptions of climate change and its impact on agricultural production.

Cropland Yields
		More (%)	No changes (%)	Less (%)	Do not know (%)	Total (%)	χ2	p-value
	Male (n = 150)	0.0	21.3	78.0	0.7	100
	Female (n = 148)	1.4	27.0	64.2	7.4	100	13.492	0.004 **
	Total (n = 298)	0.7	24.2	71.1	4.0	100
Yield in the kitchen garden
	Male (n = 150)	0.0	74.0	20.0	6.0	100
	Female (n = 148)	10.1	59.5	22.3	8.1	100	10.389	0.016 *
	Total (n = 298)	1.7	66.8	21.1	10.4	100
Pasture productivity
	Male (n = 150)	0.7	10.6	82.7	6.0	100
	Female (n = 148)	0.7	12.2	61.4	25.7	100	23.064	0.000 ***
	Total (n = 298)	0.7	11.4	72.1	15.8	100
Irrigation
	Male (n = 150)	56.7	37.3	1.3	4.7	100
	Female (n = 148)	47.3	41.2	0.7	10.8	100	5.51	0.138
	Total (n = 298)	52.0	39.3	1.0	7.7	100
Plant diseases
	Male (n = 150)	6.7	72.7	2.6	18.0	100
	Female (n = 148)	7.4	64.9	0.7	27.0	100	5.181	0.159
	Total (n = 298)	7.0	68.8	1.7	22.5	100
Animal diseases
	Male (n = 150)	24.6	54.0	2.7	18.7	100
	Female (n = 148)	23.0	55.4	1.4	20.2	100	0.855	0.836
	Total (n = 298)	23.8	54.7	2.0	19.5	100

(*) Statistical significance, p < 0.05; (**) p < 0.01; (***) p < 0.001.

).

The dataset showed that 48% of respondents relied on three income sources, 23% on two, and 23% on four. Only 4% depended on a single source, and 2% on five sources. Livestock was the most crucial source of income, with 96% considering it critical or important. Cultivation followed, rated similarly by 87%. Public employment, pensions, and allowances were reported to be critical for 20%, while seasonal work (12%) and remittances (4%) played smaller roles. Private business was a key source for 9%, and other sources remained marginal.

Most respondents relied on multiple income sources, with women slightly more diversified. Having three sources of income was the most common situation, followed by two and four. Dependence on a single source or five was rare. Livestock income was deemed critical by 97.3% of men and 95.3% of women, underscoring its vital role for both genders. Few respondents rated it as less important. Similarly, crop cultivation income was rated critical by 62% of men and 60.8% of women, while 24% of men and 26.4% of women considered it important. Only a small fraction deemed it less important. Most crops are used as livestock fodder, highlighting the close link between crops and live-stock production (

Table 4. Gendered perceptions and distribution of income sources among male and female respondents.

Sources of Income
		Single source (%)	Two (%)	Three (%)	Four (%)	Five (%)	Total (%)	χ2	p-value
	Male (n = 150)	4.7	28.0	44.7	19.3	3.3	100
	Female (n = 148)	3.4	17.6	51.4	26.4	1.4	100	7.408	0.116
	Total (n = 298)	4.0	22.8	48.0	22.8	2.3	100
Income from livestock		Critical (%)	Important (%)	Somewhat important (%)	Least important (%)	Total (%)
	Male (n = 150)	97.3	0.7	1.3	0.7	100
	Female (n = 148)	95.3	2.0	2.0	0.7	100		1.274	0.735
	Total (n = 298)	96.3	1.3	1.7	0.7	100
Income from cultivation
	Male (n = 150)	62.0	24.0	2.0	12.0	100
	Female (n = 148)	60.8	26.4	2.0	10.8	100		0.273	0.965
	Total (n = 298)	61.4	25.2	2.0	11.4	100
Income from public employment/pensions/allowance
	Male (n = 150)	2.7	12.0	1.3	84.0	100
	Female (n = 148)	37.2	6.8	3.4	52.6	100		58.940	0.000 ***
	Total (n = 298)	19.8	9.4	2.3	68.5	100
Income from private business
	Male (n = 150)	7.3	0.7	0.7	91.3	100
	Female (n = 148)	11.5	2.7	0.7	85.1	100		3.533	0.317
	Total (n = 298)	9.4	1.7	0.7	88.2	100
Income from seasonal work (internal migration)
	Male (n = 150)	22.0	10.0	1.3	66.7	100
	Female (n = 148)	2.7	14.2	0.0	83.1	100		28.097	0.000 ***
	Total (n = 298)	12.4	12.1	0.7	74.8	100
Remittances (external migration)
	Male (n = 150)	4.0	2.0	1.3	92.7	100
	Female (n = 148)	3.4	6.1	2.7	87.8	100		4.045	0.257
	Total (n = 298)	3.7	4.0	2.0	90.3	100
Other
	Male (n = 150)	2.0	5.3	10.0	82.7	100
	Female (n = 148)	10.8	1.4	2.0	85.8	100		20.518	0.000 ***
	Total (n = 298)	6.4	3.4	6.0	84.2	100

(***) Statistical significance, p < 0.001.

).

Income from private business was associated with no significant gender differences; 11% of women and 7.3% of men rated it as critical. Men often engaged in taxi driving, livestock resale, veterinary services, and car repair, while women operated small shops, cafes, or handicraft businesses like wool carpet production. Remittances were critical for just 4% of men and 6% of women, indicating their limited contribution to livelihoods.

Significant gender differences were observed in income from public employment, pensions/allowances, seasonal work, and other sources. Women were more likely to rate public employment and pensions/allowances as critical: 37.2% compared with 2.7% of men. This reflects women’s greater access to steady income, which is likely to be linked to their roles in household financial management and their higher education levels, which facilitate public sector employment. In contrast, seasonal work was more critical for men, with 22% rating it as critical, compared with 2.7% of women. Men’s seasonal work mainly involved construction jobs in towns like Naryn and Bishkek, emphasizing the gendered nature of labor migration. Other income sources were critical for 10.8% of women and 2% of men. Both genders cited processing agricultural products such as milk as significant, but women also highlighted private employment such as operating sewing shops, reflecting their focus on small-scale entrepreneurship and community-level initiatives.

Regarding climate change adaptation, 12% of men and 8.1% of women reported implementing coping strategies. Although the gender difference was not statistically significant, men prioritized agricultural improvements, including increased irrigation, fertilizer use, and adopting higher-yield crop varieties. Women focused on economic diversification, engaging in small businesses to enhance household resilience, like opening shops, running sewing workshops, and producing handicrafts (

Table 5. Gendered adoption of coping strategies undertaken in response to climate change.

Coping Strategies
		Yes (%)	No (%)	Total (%)	χ2	p-value
	Male (n = 150)	12.0	88.0	100
	Female (n = 148)	8.1	91.9	100	2.716	0.099
	Total (n = 298)	10.1	89.9	100

).

Migration trends were analyzed for potential links to climate change, revealing that migration is primarily driven by sociological factors rather than climate pressures. A recent rise in migration was reported, especially among younger families and family members, due to limited agricultural land, low opportunity for employment, and population pressures. At least one family member in 25% of the surveyed households had migrated (74 out of 298), equally split between external and internal migration. Reflecting traditional roles, 80% of migrants were men, often engaging in seasonal construction work in urban centers like Naryn and Bishkek. Female migrants, comprising 20%, were mostly from young married couples, with few single women migrating. External migration favored Russia, though geopolitical challenges have increased migration to European countries (Turkey, UK, Sweden, and Italy), the Republic of Korea, and minimal movement to the USA or UAE. While current migration responds to economic constraints, some respondents suggested that worsening climate conditions such as water scarcity or temperature variability could drive future migration. These findings highlight migration as a socioeconomic coping strategy rather than a direct adaptation to climate change.

4. Discussion

This study enhances understanding of climate change impacts on communities in Naryn Province by combining environmental and social assessments through a gendered lens, with a particular focus on women. The findings from the NDVI analysis indicate minimal overall changes in vegetation trends, with some localized variations, particularly in pastures near settlements such as Ak-Tal village. These areas exhibit signs of grazing pressure, probably due to prolonged overgrazing. Similar patterns are frequently observed in mountainous regions of Kyrgyzstan [69,70,71]. Although most respondents perceived a decline in pasture productivity, this has not yet posed a critical challenge. None of the respondents reported livestock failing to gain weight after returning from pastures, suggesting that current grazing areas still provide adequate fodder, aligning with findings from other studies [14,72]. However, an emerging concern is the increase in livestock numbers reported by locals, a trend confirmed by the National Statistical Committee [73]. These trends suggest potential long-term sustainability issues, as continued grazing pressure compounded by climate change may lead to degradation of pasture, initially near settlements and subsequently in distant highland pastures [74,75].

Our NDVI trends for cropland also showed no significant changes during the period analyzed. However, most respondents reported declining field crop yields, attributed to climate-related factors such as heatwaves that necessitate more frequent irrigation, as well as the serious issue of soil degradation. It is worth noting that NDVI analysis cannot distinguish between palatable and unpalatable plant species, potentially masking shifts in grassland composition despite relatively stable overall biomass levels. Similarly, NDVI trends do not account for qualitative factors such as crop yields. While NDVI analysis provides valuable insights into vegetation trends, combining it with local knowledge highlights critical details about environmental conditions and the broader implications of climate change in relation to livelihoods [76]. However, additional field visits are necessary to gather more nuanced information on pasture and cropland productivity, species composition, and other site-specific characteristics [77].

The overall trend in discharge demonstrated a slight decline from 2000 to 2023. This overall decrease may have shaped respondents’ perceptions of discharge changes, particularly in the smaller tributaries of the Naryn River, which are critical for irrigating home gardens. Despite these variations, villagers reported more than sufficient water in the Naryn River and its larger tributaries for irrigating field crops. Instead, they attributed irrigation challenges primarily to outdated infrastructure, a common issue in remote mountain regions [78].

The temperature increased very gradually from 2000 to 2023, with a slightly more noticeable rise occurring from 2016 to 2023. Similarly, precipitation trends reveal a slight overall decline in interannual values from 2000 to 2023, with a more pronounced localized decrease from 2017 to 2023. However, the overall trend is not very prominent and resembles the interannual mean variations. Seasonal variations in precipitation are more irregular compared with temperature and discharge, a pattern confirmed by other studies [32,79] indicating high overall variability.

Male and female respondents reported similar observations, although with some ‘exaggeration’. The alignment of these with the observed data probably stems from the fact that their livelihoods are closely tied to local climatic conditions, causing them to perceive climate change in more immediate and tangible ways. Respondents noted that climate change has directly prompted adjustments such as the need for more frequent irrigation. However, these adaptations have not prevented delays in crop growth or caused reductions in crop yields, aligning with findings from studies conducted in other mountainous regions such as the Himalaya and Pamir regions [80,81,82].

Overall, respondents of both genders acknowledged climate change. However, its impacts in the surveyed villages remain manageable, aligning with climatic data that show only slight changes. This is further supported by the relatively low number of respondents who have applied adaptations to counteract recent effects of climate change. While the chi-square test revealed mostly similar perceptions between men and women, women provided unique insights into how environmental changes directly affected their daily lives. These included increased domestic responsibilities such as allocating more time and money for nutritious food, clean drinking water, and healthcare, as well as adapting energy use during cold snaps, underscoring their critical role in household resilience [40,44,83,84,85].

In hazardous areas, women also undertook additional tasks like clearing debris from backyards and gardens, traditionally outside their roles, highlighting their disproportionate burden in post-disaster recovery [86,87,88]. Such instances were particularly evident in certain villages prone to debris flow events [64]. However, the Ministry of Emergency Situations [63] notes that heatwaves and droughts in the study area have not been classified as significant meteorological hazards in recent decades. This indicates a discrepancy between local perceptions and formal hazard recognition, as respondents view these events as serious threats, particularly to outdoor work and agriculture. Instead, the region’s high altitude and mountainous terrain make it more vulnerable to hazards such as floods, debris flows, landslides, and severe weather, which have more frequently been documented [64]. These findings emphasize the need to integrate both local perceptions and official classifications into climate adaptation and risk management strategies.

Male dominance in land ownership and agricultural decision-making is deeply rooted in cultural norms and institutionalized gender inequities across the region. This is reflected in women’s perspectives on the impacts of climate change, which often stem from second-hand information provided by male spouses regarding land use, livestock, and crop management [89,90]. Despite women’s active participation in farming, decision-making power primarily lies with men [91,92]. Women also highlighted financial pressures such as decisions regarding winter fodder purchases, showcasing their active involvement in family budgeting [44].

Migration has increased in the surveyed villages, mirroring broader rural trends in Central Asia [93,94]. This trend is particularly pronounced among younger families and reflects socioeconomic challenges like limited access to arable land and employment opportunities [86]. While climate change is not yet a primary driver of migration, worsening climatic conditions, for example, water scarcity, could exacerbate migration pressures in the future. Regional studies suggest that environmental stressors interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities to shape migration decisions [95,96,97]. Migration abroad is predominantly undertaken by men, leaving women responsible for most farm and household duties. While this highlights women’s critical role in household resilience, it also intensifies their workload and responsibilities [86,98].

Livestock remains a vital source of income for both men and women [14]; however, women often diversify into informal and entrepreneurial activities, valuing stable income sources such as public employment. Leveraging higher education and financial management roles, women actively engage in entrepreneurial ventures. Traditional male dominance in land ownership and agricultural decision-making further drives women towards off-farm income opportunities, highlighting their proactive role in building household resilience. While these findings emphasize socioeconomic dynamics, they also suggest a potential link to climate change adaptation. Diversification of income sources may help households mitigate climate-related challenges such as resource scarcity and extreme weather, which increasingly threaten agricultural livelihoods in the region [44,99].

This study combines environmental analysis with sociological research to provide a holistic understanding of the impacts of climate change in Naryn Province. NDVI and weather data provide objective insights into long-term environmental trends, revealing localized grazing pressure, minimal changes in cropland, and gradual temperature increases. However, these biophysical indicators alone do not fully capture the experiences of local communities. The sociological survey complements this analysis by revealing how residents perceive and respond to these environmental changes, showing that while climate change is still manageable, its impacts are already shaping agricultural practices, water use, and household responsibilities, especially for women. By integrating these two approaches, we provide a more nuanced perspective that links environmental data with social realities. This interdisciplinary framework underscores the importance of incorporating scientific assessments and local knowledge into climate adaptation policies, to ensure that they are both data-driven and socially responsive [91,92].

5. Conclusions

The findings of this study highlight the complex interplay amongst the environmental, social, and gender dimensions of climate change impacts in Naryn Province, Kyrgyzstan. While communities are currently coping with climate-related challenges with varying degrees of success, the nuanced gendered responses underscore the need for targeted, equitable adaptive strategies that consider the different roles and burdens of men and women. Women’s proactive efforts to diversify income and manage household resources, juxtaposed with men’s focus on agricultural productivity, reveal complementary but unequal adaptation pathways shaped by cultural norms and institutional barriers. These dynamics are further complicated by the increasing outmigration of men, leaving women to manage multiple responsibilities in agriculture and domestic life. This study highlights the importance of integrating local perceptions with biophysical and sociological data to develop effective climate adaptation measures that build resilience, address gendered vulnerabilities, and mitigate the long-term risks posed by climate change.

Our findings underscore the importance of integrating gender-sensitive policies into strategies for adapting to climate change. Investment in sustainable agricultural practices and infrastructure, such as improved irrigation systems, should actively involve women to identify needs, enhance productivity, and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Addressing systemic gender inequities in land ownership and decision-making is vital for fostering inclusive and equitable adaptation. Degradation of pastures and croplands, exacerbated by climatic changes, is likely to intensify in the coming years, necessitating collaborative efforts from women and men to implement sustainable land management practices and reduce environmental pressures. Furthermore, information support for women in their efforts to diversify income sources is critical, as it can empower them to develop entrepreneurial activities, access markets, and adopt innovative practices that enhance household resilience. Proactive efforts to tackle emerging challenges, such as water scarcity and migration pressures, are crucial for building long-term resilience in these communities.

A limitation of this study is that while NDVI analysis offers valuable insights into vegetation trends, it does not capture all the nuanced details of pasture and cropland productivity, species composition, and other site-specific characteristics. Future research could benefit from additional field visits to gather more detailed ground-level data, which would help better understand local environmental conditions and their broader implications for livelihoods. This would further enrich the integration of satellite data with local knowledge, providing a more comprehensive view of the impacts of climate change in the region.