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Review

Climate Change and Arbovirus: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis

by
Maryly Weyll Sant’Anna
1,*,
Maurício Lamano Ferreira
2,
Leonardo Ferreira da Silva
3 and
Pedro Luiz Côrtes
1,4
1
Postgraduate Programme in Environmental Science, Institute of Energy and Environment, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-010, SP, Brazil
2
Department of Basic and Environmental Sciences, Lorena School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Lorena 12602-810, SP, Brazil
3
Postgraduate Program in Architecture and Urbanism of Mackenzie Presbyterian University, São Paulo 01302-907, SP, Brazil
4
School of Communication and Arts, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-020, SP, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2025, 13(2), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020035
Submission received: 17 December 2024 / Revised: 31 January 2025 / Accepted: 1 February 2025 / Published: 6 February 2025

Abstract

:
The rise in Earth’s temperature is capable of influencing the occurrence of catastrophic natural events, contributing to outbreaks of arboviruses in endemic areas and new geographical regions. This study aimed to conduct a bibliometric review and analysis of research activities on climate change with a focus on human arboviruses, using the Scopus database. A total of 1644 documents were found related to the topic between 1934 and 2023. The United States continues to lead in the number of academic publications. Dengue was the arbovirosis with the highest number of publications, followed by West Nile fever, Zika and chikungunya fever. Due to the rise in global temperature, a trend of arbovirus dissemination to non-endemic areas is observed, with a possible global increase in morbidity and mortality. Consequently, more effective measures are expected from epidemiological surveillance, vector control services, governmental authorities and, crucially, social engagement in combating and preventing new outbreaks.

1. Introduction

The rapid increase in global warming observed in recent years has contributed to a higher frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as heavy rainfall and prolonged periods of drought [1]. Since the 1970s, an increase of 0.2 °C per decade has been observed [2,3], and the predicted global increase in terrestrial temperatures by the year 2100 is between 1.0 and 4.5 °C [4]. This situation puts human life at risk of extinction, as the planet is about to reach irreversible levels of warming and, consequently, great vulnerability to catastrophic natural events [5]. Anthropogenic activities mainly influence these climatic oscillations and contribute to significant modifications in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, resulting in social and economic losses, as well as negative impacts on human health and well-being [4].
Among the health implications related to climate variations, there is an increase in outbreaks of different diseases [6]. Vector-borne diseases, especially those transmitted by mosquitoes, are among those that show a strong association with climatic factors [7]. Variations in temperature, humidity and performance influence the epidemiology of these diseases, as they not only alter the metabolism and reproduction of vectors and pathogens but are also capable of modifying the habitats of these insects, contributing to an increase in their density and spread to new areas [7,8].
Among vector-borne diseases, arboviruses are of great interest for public health due to their high morbidity and mortality [9,10]. Recently, dengue was considered the fastest-growing arbovirus in the world, putting about 40% of the population at risk of illness due to the absence of effective antiviral treatments and widely available vaccines [11]. In addition to dengue, Zika and chikungunya are also considered serious public health problems worldwide, especially in tropical and subtropical regions, where in addition to climatic factors that favor vector reproduction there are serious socioeconomic problems that make it difficult to implement measures to prevent and control these diseases [12,13,14]. Furthermore, as the Earth’s temperature reaches higher levels, there is a greater territorial expansion of arboviruses into currently non-endemic temperate zones, where there are a high number of susceptibles [14].
Frequent outbreaks of these arboviral diseases increase global awareness of the importance of controlling these diseases in the face of climatic variations observed in recent years [15,16]. Insect vectors expand their distribution to new geographical areas as environments change and become more suitable for their survival [17]. These arboviral diseases can cause subclinical manifestations to severe conditions, as observed in dengue hemorrhagic fever and the neurological sequelae of Zika and chikungunya [15,16].
The literature provides strong evidence of the influence of climatic factors on the increase in cases of arboviral diseases [18]. However, the occurrence of these diseases involves multiple socio-environmental factors, such as human and animal mobility, land use (deforestation, reforestation, agricultural activity), access to sufficient basic sanitation and adequate assistance to health services, among others [18]. In addition, these diseases have the potential to cause large outbreaks, result in debilitating illnesses and impose significant public health costs [19]. Therefore, verifying the profile of international research activities on the influence of climate change on arboviral outbreaks can help in the academic understanding of this subject, in the identification of possible control measures for new outbreaks and in the knowledge gaps that need to be filled [20].
In this way, the methodology chosen was the bibliometric review as it is a rigorous method that has the ability to explore and analyze large volumes of scientific data already published [20]. Furthermore, this type of analysis helps to indicate research trends, main authors and journals following scientific rigor. In addition, the use of a review methodology, such as the PRISMA methodology, could limit the academic production analyzed. To date, there have been few bibliometric studies analyzing the relationship between climate change and arboviruses.
Therefore, the aim of this study was to carry out a review of existing academic production on the relationship between climate change and human arboviruses, through the bibliometric aspects of research, and thereby contribute to the identification of possible gaps in the subject and the direction of new studies.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Database

To obtain the database, SciVerse Scopus was used; it is considered a legitimate database for conducting bibliometric studies due to its ease of data extraction for tabulation and the quality and quantity of articles in its repository [19,21]. Scopus stores more than 6.5 million articles before 1970, with the oldest records dating back to 1788, making it one of the most comprehensive databases to date [22]. All types of published documents related to climate change and arboviruses were included, regardless of year and language.

2.2. Search Strategy

All documents related to arboviruses and climate change were collected from the past up to 8 October 2023. To retrieve documents related to arboviruses and avoid false-positive results, titles containing the following terms were used: arbovirus OR “arthropod-borne viruses” OR arboviruses OR “Cache Valley virus” OR chikungunya OR dengue OR “Eastern equine encephalitis virus” OR “Jamestown Canyon virus” OR “Japanese encephalitis” OR “La Crosse virus” OR “Mayaro virus” OR “Murray valley encephalitis virus” OR “O’nyong nyong virus” OR Oropouche OR “Ross River virus” OR “St. Louis encephalitis virus” OR “sindbis” OR “Venezuelan virus equine encephalitis virus” OR “West Nile virus” OR “Western equine encephalitis virus” OR “Yellow fever” OR zika. The disease terms were taken from the list of human arboviruses on the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website [23], with the addition of Oropouche.
Subsequently, all titles, abstracts and keywords related to climate change were included, such as “global warming” OR “climate change” OR “greenhouse effect” OR “greenhouse gas” OR “changing climate” OR “extreme weather” OR “climate variability” OR “rising temperature” OR “heat wave” OR drought OR flood OR rainfall. Finally, to validate the search results and avoid false positives, all titles, abstracts and keywords related to “dengue-negative” OR “Cell stress” were excluded.
The search was summarized as follows: (TITLE (arbovirus OR “arthropod-borne viruses” OR arboviruses OR “Cache Valley virus” OR chikungunya OR dengue OR “Eastern equine encephalitis virus” OR “Jamestown Canyon virus” OR “Japanese encephalitis” OR “La Crosse virus” OR “Mayaro virus” OR “murray valley encephalitis virus” OR “O’nyong nyong virus” OR Oropouche OR “Ross River virus” OR “St. Louis encephalitis virus” OR “sindbis” OR “Venezuelan virus equine encephalitis virus” OR “West Nile virus” OR “Western equine encephalitis virus” OR “Yellow fever” OR zika) AND TITLE-ABS-KEY (“global warming” OR “climate change” OR “greenhouse effect” OR “greenhouse gas” OR “changing climate” OR “global warming” OR “extreme weather” OR “climate variability” OR “rising temperature” OR “heat wave” OR drought OR flood OR rainfall) AND NOT TITLE-ABS-KEY (“dengue-negative” OR “Cell stress”).

2.3. Validation

The research queries were validated following the first stage of the validation method adopted by Sweileh [19], where the 50 most cited documents in the literature were analyzed to ensure the studies’ alignment with the relationship between climate change and arboviruses, and no false-positive results were found.

2.4. Data Analysis

The data were exported from Scopus and tabulated using Microsoft Office Excel 2010. During the analysis, the top ten ranked items for most bibliometric indicators were obtained and displayed in descending order from 1 to 10 using the standard ranking (SCR), used in bibliometrics studies [24]. Descriptive statistics were used to determine frequency, percentage and sum. The h-index was used to evaluate researcher performance and is defined as follows: if a researcher’s h-index is 9, it means that their 9 most cited publications received at least 9 citations each; if it is 13, the 13 most cited publications received at least 13 citations each [22]. Therefore, this index is capable of evaluating both the number of publications (quantity) and the number of citations (impact) of a given scientific production or researcher [24]. The impact factor for journals was obtained from Journal Citation Reports [25]. The data were exported from Scopus were imported into QGIS v3.22.9 software [26] to create thematic maps.
In addition, the data obtained from Scopus were processed using VOSviewer 1.6.20, a software specialized in bibliometrics visualization and analysis, widely used in science studies to explore and represent bibliographic data in an interactive and comprehensible manner. Its main function lies in the ability to create maps and networks from large datasets, allowing the identification of patterns, trends and relationships between publications, authors, keywords and other bibliometric elements [27].
The software stands out for its ability to generate clear and informative visualizations, facilitating the understanding of the structure and dynamics of scientific production in a specific area of knowledge. Through its clustering and mapping algorithms, VOSviewer helps researchers identify emerging research areas, collaborations between authors and the evolution of scientific themes over time, contributing to an in-depth analysis of the research landscape [28]. Thus, the co-occurrence analysis of keywords was performed, considering only terms with a minimum frequency of three occurrences, in order to identify the main themes and research trends in the area.
In the figures generated by VOSviewer, each color represents a different cluster formed based on the volume of collaborations between countries or keywords. The clusters are established by the proximity and density of the connections, highlighting groups (such as countries or keywords) that frequently interact in scientific publications. The size of each circle is proportional to the number of publications or the centrality of a country or keyword in the network of collaborations. The lines connecting the circles indicate direct collaborations, with thicker lines reflecting a greater number of joint publications.

3. Results

3.1. Volume, Growth of Publications and Types

The research found 1644 documents related to climate change and arboviruses in the period between 1934 and 2023. Figure 1 shows that until 2007, the production of literature on this topic was low, with an ascending global trend beginning in 2010, reaching its highest intensity in 2021. However, from 2022 and 2023 onwards, a trend of reduction in the global number of publications is observed when compared to the previous two years (Table S1).
Regarding the retrieved documents, nine different types were found. Among them, articles represented 71.8% (n = 1181), followed by reviews with 12.0% (n = 201). Other percentages included conference papers, 7.4% (n = 122); letters, 3.1% (n = 51); notes, 1.8% (n = 29); book chapters, 1.7% (n = 28); editorials, 1.3% (n = 22); brief surveys, 0.4%; errata, 0.2% (n = 3); and undefined, 0.1% (n = 1). The documents were published in 13 languages. The most prevalent language was English with 1575 (95.8%), followed by Portuguese (n = 28; 1.7%) and Spanish (n = 21; 1.2%). Other languages appeared in smaller proportions, representing less than 1%.

3.2. Number of Citations

During the analysis of the selected articles, it was identified that the article titled “The global distribution and burden of dengue” [29], published in Nature in 2013 was the most cited document among the 1644 studies with a total of 6192 citations. Other studies that had over 500 citations were as follows: “Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects” [30], with 708 citations; “Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model” [31], with 690 citations; “Global spread and persistence of dengue” [32] with 664 citations. These articles had the magnitude of dengue and its potential for global dissemination in the face of climatic oscillations already evidenced in previous years as their main theme.

3.3. Country, Author and Publication Journal

The analysis of keyword recurrences by country, shown in Figure 2, indicates the proximity and density of the links, highlighting groups of countries that frequently work together on scientific publications. Nine clusters were identified, distinguished by different colors. The first cluster (red) was represented by the United States of America and included the United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Portugal and Spain, among other countries. The second cluster (green) included India, Japan, Iraq and Nepal, among other countries. The third group (dark blue) was represented by Malaysia and included South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, among other countries. The fourth group (lime green) was represented by Germany, Pakistan, Israel and Romania, among other countries. The fifth group (purple) was represented by Brazil, France, Bangladesh, Thailand, Norway and Switzerland, among others. China led the sixth cluster (light blue), which included Italy, Morocco and Denmark, among others. The seventh cluster (orange) was represented by Australia, New Zealand, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Ghana. The eighth cluster (brown) was for Puerto Rico, and finally, the ninth (rose) was for Senegal. Further details of the clusters can be found in Supplementary Table S2.
This study showed a balance between the number of publications related to arboviral diseases and environmental factors between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The countries with the highest number of publications in the global north were the United States (n = 406) and the United Kingdom (n = 136). In the global south, the countries with the highest number of publications were Australia (n = 198) and Brazil (n = 156), as shown in Figure 3.
Other countries such as Indonesia (n = 115), India (n = 113), China (n = 110), Malaysia (n = 85), Thailand (n = 79) and France (n = 74) also show a significant global percentage in scientific production on the subject of climate change and arboviruses.
In analyzing the 10 authors found in this selection, the following were identified: Hu, W. (n = 34); Tong, S. (n = 24); Liu, Q. (n = 23); Rocklöv, J. (n = 22), followed by others described in Table 1. The author with the highest h-index was Tong, S. (n = 79). The identification of the 10 most productive research centers found in this analysis is described in Table 2. Australia hosted four large study centers in this area of analysis; Brazil was responsible for two centers; China, the United Kingdom, the United States and France presented one each.
The 10 most productive journals found in this analysis represent 22.1 per cent (363) of this study’s sample. The journal Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases had the highest number of publications (100; 6.08%), followed by Plos One (48; 2.9%) and Medical Entomology (33; 2%). Other relevant journals are described in Table 3.

3.4. Keywords

The citations of the most frequently found infectious disease/pathogen terms in the Scopus filter keywords revealed that terms related to dengue led the studies with 1468 occurrences; West Nile fever appears in second place, with 371 occurrences, followed by Zika with 354 occurrences and chikungunya fever with 281 occurrences. Other arboviruses such as Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever and Ross River fever appear in fewer occurrences (Table 4).
In addition, the keywords most frequently appearing in the selected articles were identified using VOSviewer. Each colored cluster in Figure 4 represents the co-occurrence network of all keywords, extracted from the titles, abstracts and keyword lists of the 1644 Scopus articles. In the network, the nodes and larger words reflect their greater occurrence, the colors indicate the clusters and the lines show the interrelationship of the keywords. The analysis revealed the existence of 1000 items distributed in seven major areas of published studies, each centered on specific aspects.
As shown in Figure 4, the first cluster (dark blue) was represented by the word “human”. In the second cluster (green), the most frequent word was “dengue”, followed by terms such as “temperature”, “rain”, “humidity” and others. The third cluster (red) was represented by the words “nonhuman”, “review” and others. The fourth cluster (lime green) was represented by the words “animal” and “physiology”. In the fifth cluster (purple), “female”, “child” and “aged” are the most prominent words. In the sixth cluster (light blue), the most important words were “seasons”, “forest” and “distribution”. And finally, the seventh cluster (orange) was represented by the words “disease outbreaks”, “immunity” and “import disease”. This may demonstrate the great diversity of areas of knowledge involved in research related to arboviral diseases.

4. Discussion

4.1. Environmental Movements and Arbovirus Publications

This study pointed out that in the first two decades of the 21st century, there has been a significant increase in the number of publications related to arboviruses and climate variations, probably due to the relevance that climate studies have reached in this period. This increase occurred in parallel with the growth of international conferences supporting sustainable development and environmental conservation, which began in the middle of the 20th century [19]. Furthermore, recent years have been marked by a global alert about unprecedented planetary warming and the risks of this climatic scenario for human health and survival [1].
One of the main events in defense of the environment was the first United Nations Conference on Environment and Sustainable Development held in Stockholm in 1979 [33]. Although the Conference focused on local pollution sources, such as oil spills in oceans, it was able to drive the beginning of a series of global events and conferences on the topic, contributing to the promotion of terrestrial biodiversity conservation movements [34].
Among these events are the Villach Conference in 1985, pointing out possible climate changes and the importance of governmental commitments; the Brundtland Report in 1987, Our Common Future, addressing the importance of environmental conservation for future generations; and the Toronto Conference in 1988, warning political leaders about the seriousness of socio-environmental issues [34]. Also, in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established, with the purpose of analyzing and reporting scientific data on changes in the global climate [19,35], which contributed to the increase in scientific publications on the theme of climate influence on human health [19].
From then on, other movements occurred, such as the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992, in Rio de Janeiro, and the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the first international treaty that sought to control emissions of so-called greenhouse gases [34]. In addition, at the beginning of the 21st century, the 61st World Health Assembly held in Geneva in 2008, recognized that climate variations were capable of interfering with human health, contributing to the increase in chronic and infectious diseases [36], driving the increase in publications relating climate change and human health. This evidence was confirmed in 2014 with the publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) which issued an alert about the global danger of delaying mitigation actions and neglecting scientific studies that point to the environmental and socioeconomic disasters of global warming [37].
In the first decades of the 21st century, the IPCC published AR6 (sixth report) ratifying the anthropogenic influence on the increase in global temperature and the risk to terrestrial life in the face of these changes [38]. During the publication of AR6, in March 2023, an alert was issued to the industrial sector about the urgent need to replace fossil fuels and immediately implement sustainable development, given the imminent risk of disappearance of polar regions, damage to terrestrial biodiversity, increase in infectious diseases and mortality related to climatic factors, facts already experienced in the present generation [38]. These alerts issued by the IPCC continue to drive scientific publications that associate climatic aspects with the increase in arbovirus outbreaks, mainly due to environmental imbalance, represented by the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, such as floods and droughts.
The slowdown in research in 2022 and 2023 was probably due to the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020. It is likely that the social isolation measures encouraged by the World Health Organisation, as well as the impacts of the pandemic, such as resource restrictions, limited mobility, laboratory closures, changes in research priorities, funding challenges and workforce reductions, have contributed to the delays in publication processes.

4.2. Chronology of Research into Arboviruses and Climate

The oldest document found was published in 1934 in the United States and was a Public Health letter relating the period of high temperatures to the increase in infectious diseases, including the dengue outbreak in Miami, Florida [39]. In the mid-20th century, the influence of climatic factors, such as precipitation, on the prevalence of the Haemagogus vector and the incidence of sylvatic yellow fever in forest areas of Brazil and Colombia was identified [40]. Other publications occurred in 1968 and came from the northern region of Queensland, Australia [41,42]. Both studies pointed to an increase in the population of arbovirus vectors during the rainy season.
In the 1960s, the study by Standfast and Barrow [42] indicated a higher probability of arbovirus outbreaks in humans through the bite of Culex annulirostris during the dry season, suggesting that control of artificial breeding sites may be useful in combat vectors. In addition, the study by Doherty et al. [41] does not exclude the possibility that Murray Valley encephalitis viruses, active in northwest Queensland during the rainy season, may survive year-round in the rainforest, demonstrating the importance of maintaining control measures during both dry and rainy seasons [41,42].
At the end of the 1970s, a study in Massachusetts observed an increase in cases of Eastern Equine Encephalitis in humans after long periods of heavy rainfall and contributed to evaluating the predictive value of precipitation volume in the appearance of arboviruses [43], helping to strengthen the association of climatic variations with the occurrence of arbovirus outbreaks. In addition, in the 1980s, an epidemiological study in Selangor, Malaysia, presented strong statistical evidence of the association between dengue outbreaks and high precipitation volume [44].
Confirming these findings, other studies in the last decade of the 20th century pointed to a strong association between environmental factors and arbovirus cases, warning of the possible risk that climate changes would bring to the emergence of outbreaks of these diseases [45,46,47,48]. Also in this decade, a study in Eastern Europe pointed to the influence of environmental factors (heavy rains, floods, temperature rise above the annual average) and human activities (irrigation) in the formation of ecological niches that promote the reproduction of insect vectors, allowing for an increase in the incidence of West Nile fever in Eastern Europe during the rainy months [49].
At the beginning of the 21st century, scientific evidence already confirmed the influence of the effect of climate variability of multi-year cycles, such as El Niño and La Niña and the so-called Decadal Oscillations, such as the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases [8], confirming the implication of climatic variations in the biological cycle of insects. Furthermore, it was corroborated that climatic oscillations associated with natural phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, tend to increase the frequency and intensity of outbreaks of vector diseases, especially in tropical regions [50,51,52].
Based on this knowledge, mapping and climate modeling studies have gained significant ground in 21st-century publications. These studies use the recording of disease incidence and data on environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, in a variation of time and space to understand the current and future distribution of arboviruses, as well as to predict the risk of the population falling ill due to these arboviruses [53,54]. In addition, projections of vector distribution and disease risk are often based on climate scenarios, according to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) defined by the IPCC for each period, and provide useful information for planning actions to control these arboviruses in endemic and non-endemic regions [53,55,56]. Climate projections for the coming years indicate a growing increase in the Earth’s temperature, which could influence the increase in the frequency and intensity of arboviral disease outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic regions. Health and epidemiological surveillance services in areas at risk must therefore remain alert in order to control and prevent possible outbreaks.

4.3. Expansion of Arboviruses to New Ecological Niches

Environmental factors such as urbanization, global trade and transport systems, and land use/cover, including deforestation of forest areas, have contributed to the increase in and global spread of these diseases [8,57,58]. In addition, anthropogenic changes in land use are capable of influencing biodiversity loss, causing modifications in vector behavior, contributing to their expansion and consequently to the spread of pathogens [59]. Among these modifications, land use for the agricultural sector has been considered the dominant cause of tropical deforestation, occupying about 40% of the Earth’s surface and contributing to significant changes in the forest ecosystem [60]. Agriculture, including livestock production, is considered the largest user of land and water in the world, being the main source of contamination by nitrates and ammonia in groundwater and surface water, as well as the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane and nitrous oxide, influencing the increase in the Earth’s temperature [61]. In addition, the destruction of ecosystems influenced by deforestation can contribute to the spread of vectors in urban centers.
The scientific literature confirms that the urbanization process, accelerated by rapid human population growth, influenced the intercontinental spread of arboviruses through various mechanisms, such as favoring the change in the vector’s feeding behavior from zoophilia to anthropophilia, accentuated by human occupation in forest areas and the reproductive adaptation of insects in domestic or peridomiciliary containers, such as tires, shoes, support pots for potted plants, water reservoirs [9,62]. In addition to the urbanization process, the global expansion of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus has been associated with the increase in global connectivity existing in international trade routes and human movement, whether by sea, land or air [57,63]. This connectivity can influence the spread of eggs resistant to long periods of desiccation that may be present in internationally traded plants or objects [57,63].
Furthermore, modifications in the ecophysiological capacity of mosquitoes, including genetic and environmental components, are capable of influencing the dispersal and survival of species in extreme temperatures (severe winter or heat waves), expanding new survival niches [64]. Thus, the greater the ecophysiological plasticity of the species, the broader its territorial distribution and risk of population illness will be [64].
It is observed that Ae. albopictus presents greater acclimatization compared to Ae. aegypti, having a greater adaptive capacity to different climates through the production of eggs more resistant to cold [58,64,65]. This is possible due to a genetic variation in its ability to undergo diapause and, therefore, to hibernate in colder locations [63]. The presence of Ae. albopictus has been reported in about 28 European countries with greater abundance in southern Europe, including Italy, Spain, southern France, the Balkans, Greece and Portugal [65], which justifies the recording of dengue and chikungunya cases in European countries.
Thus, a significant expansion of these species is predicted, with the distribution of Ae. aegypti being more intense in tropical and subtropical regions of South America, the Caribbean Islands, the southeastern United States, and the Pacific coast of Canada and the United States [54]. As for Ae. albopictus, an expansion is predicted with greater intensity in temperate regions of Europe, from the southwest to the north of the United States and southern Canada [54]. This has occurred due to climate change, especially rising temperatures, as this interaction creates habitats that drive the continuous expansion of these species into new climatically suitable urban areas [9]. Therefore, it is possible that this expansion will occur intensively in the coming years, regardless of the environmental changes that may occur, due to the growth of global interaction and the process of urban agglomeration, which could put around half of the world’s population at risk of falling ill with arboviruses by the year 2050 [9].

4.4. Global Academic Production

In general, bibliometric studies point to the Global North with a high percentage of publications in various areas, especially in studies related to human health and the environment [19,66,67]. However, this study showed a balance in the number of publications between the Global North and the Global South, due to strong production in Australia and Brazil. The United States, on the other hand, leads the way in the number of academic publications related to the subject of analysis. This sovereignty is probably due to the economic power of the United States and the large number of high-level research institutions in its territory, which leads many international researchers to express a desire for technical cooperation with American institutions [67].
This association can be best exemplified in Figure 2, where the thicker lines represent a greater number of co-authored publications between the linked countries. The groupings show how scientific collaborations are regionalized, with a great deal of technical cooperation between the United States and Brazil. In addition, the top ten authors found in this analysis have Australian, European or Chinese affiliations. It was noted that in this analysis, Australia and Brazil together house more than 50% of the top ten research centers related to arboviruses and climate change. This finding justifies the high academic production on this subject found in the Global South.
In addition, this balance may have been influenced by the high endemicity of arboviruses in tropical regions, present to a greater extent in the countries of the Global South. It was observed that in the Southern Hemisphere, the countries with the greatest scientific contribution in the area of arboviruses and climate change are precisely those with a high incidence of cases, including Australia, Brazil and Southeast Asia, a fact also identified in other studies [68,69,70]. This finding may confirm the importance of the countries of the Global South in scientific production on the subject of arboviruses, potentially contributing to the control and prevention of arbovirus outbreaks in regions of low endemicity.

4.5. Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya

Dengue is considered an arboviral disease with the greatest impact on global public health due to its large magnitude and capacity for high morbidity, especially in tropical and subtropical regions, and is already considered endemic in more than 125 countries [6,71,72,73]. Estimates suggest that the global incidence of dengue fever reaches 390 million cases per year, with about 96 million symptomatic cases, resulting in 500,000 hospitalizations and 25,000 deaths [74,75]. In addition to dengue, Zika and chikungunya are also considered emerging diseases of great importance for global public health due to the great expansion to different regions of the Americas, Africa, Asia, the Indian Ocean and temperate areas in Europe [76,77,78]. Besides sharing similar geographical areas, both diseases share the same vectors, Ae. aegypti and Ae. Albopictus, and common symptoms.
The Zika virus (ZIKV) was discovered in 1947 in Uganda and for a long time remained neglected by public health, until the emergence of the microcephaly outbreak in Brazil recorded after a Zika virus epidemic in the country in 2015 [79]. Given the intensity of the cases, the expansion of the disease and possible severe congenital outcomes in 2016, the Zika virus was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization [80], becoming part of international control programs.
In most cases, the effects of the Zika virus tend to be mild and transient, being considered less aggressive than chikungunya; with symptoms lasting between 1 and 2 weeks [81]. However, some cases can generate cardiac and respiratory compromise, with a risk of death in immunocompromised individuals [82]. Furthermore, there is a possible association between viral infections and the emergence of neurological syndromes, such as Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS) and its risk of teratogenic effects, such as possible motor and cognitive impairments and auditory and visual disorders [82].
The chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was discovered in 1952 on the Makonde Plateau, in the province of Tanzania, East Africa, receiving this name derived from the Kimakonde verb kungunyala which means “that which bends over”, referring to the physical position adopted by those with the disease [76]. Its clinical manifestations involve the presence of fever, skin rash, myalgia, intense arthralgia and in some cases, severe hemorrhages, neurological impairment and long-lasting arthritis similar to rheumatoid arthritis [83]. From 2000 onwards, large outbreaks began with high frequency and expansion to new areas, suggesting possible genetic adaptations of the virus and its vector, with Aedes mosquitoes being its main transmitters [84].
Currently, CHIKV has been reported in about 60 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas, maintaining its sylvatic cycles in Africa and regions of Asia [76]. However, its urban transmission between humans and mosquitoes is significant, presenting a pandemic potential recognized by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) as a priority pathogenic agent for vaccine development, which sanctions its relevance in global public health [76].

4.6. Other Arboviruses: West Nile Fever, Japanese Encephalitis, Yellow Fever and Ross River Fever

The West Nile fever virus (WNV) was discovered in 1937 in Uganda, but its probable origin was in the Middle East, from where it spread to Africa, Asia, Europe, Australia and North America [85]. WNV is one of the flaviviruses with a wide global distribution, and until the early 1990s, it was characterized by subclinical infection and mild feverish conditions [85]. However, in 1999 in New York City (USA), it was associated with cases of human and equine encephalitis, as well as mortality of migratory birds, which may be related to the intercontinental spread of the virus [86]. The virus transmission occurs through the bite of mosquitoes belonging to the Culex genus, such as Culex pipiens and Cx. modestus, which allows transmission to non-avian species [85,86]. Climatic factors such as temperature and performance can influence the population density of mosquitoes, influencing the amplification of transmission and distribution of the disease in endemic regions [85,86].
The Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a single-stranded RNA virus of the flavivirus genus and is considered the main agent of human encephalitis in the Asian Pacific region, having already been identified in northern Australia and in Angola, Africa [87,88,89]. JEV is responsible for approximately 68,000 cases and about 13,600–20,400 deaths annually, with neurological complications and sequelae in about 50% of cases, mainly in children [90].
The main source of disease transmission occurs through the bite of Culex mosquitoes contaminated with the virus [91]. Several bird species are considered natural reservoirs, but pigs are the main hosts and are responsible for maintaining and amplifying disease outbreaks in society [87,89]. Humans and other mammalian species, such as horses, are considered dead-end hosts due to the absence of viremia in these species [91]. Despite the existence of vaccines, there is still a high number of cases annually, and with the increase in global warming, an expansion of the vector mosquito’s territory and consequent increase in the number of susceptible to the virus is expected [90].
Yellow fever (YF) is also caused by the infection of an RNA virus of the flavivirus genus, capable of affecting humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs), occurring in countries of South America and Africa [92]. In the South American region, viral transmission occurs in two cycles, the sylvatic cycle, where NHPs are infected through the bite of Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp. Mosquitoes, and the urban cycle, where the infection reaches humans through the bite of insects of the genus Aedes sp., the same vector of dengue, Zika and chikungunya [93]. On the African Continent, human transmission involves sylvatic and domestic vector species, contributing to the frequent occurrence of large outbreaks [94].
Viral infection in humans can cause symptoms ranging from mild cold-like conditions to more severe symptoms, such as hemorrhagic fever, jaundice, renal failure and cardiovascular disturbance [95]. The fatality rate can vary between 5 and 50% [95]. Despite the existence of effective vaccines, YF outbreaks still occur sporadically in endemic regions, such as in 2015 and 2016 in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and in Brazil and Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 [92,93], which demonstrates the need for vector control programs and monitoring of new cases, in order to prevent the expansion of the disease to non-endemic areas where Aedes is present.
Ross River fever (RRF) is an arbovirus caused by an alphavirus, Ross River virus (RRV), of the Togaviridae family, endemic to Australia and South Pacific islands, which was first isolated in 1972 in the Queensland region [96,97]. In addition, RRV is responsible for about 1451 to 9551 reported cases annually, as well as the occurrence of seasonal outbreaks in the Australian region which are associated with environmental conditions conducive to vector reproduction [98]. The disease transmission involves multiple hosts such as mammals, birds, marsupials and about 40 vector mosquitoes, including Cx annulirostris, Ocherotatus vigilax, Ae. Camptorhynchus and Aedes. vigilax [96,99].
The clinical manifestations of RRF include fever, myalgia, lethargy and skin rash and chronic arthralgia, similar to chikungunya [99]. In 2020, the number of reported cases was higher than in previous years, and the epidemic peak period lasted longer than in previous years [100]. This fact may have been due to global warming and heat islands in large urban centers, which may be favoring the annual prolongation in the months of greater permanence of vector mosquitoes [100].
This study presented the most relevant arboviral diseases in the research database. Only mosquito-borne diseases were described in this analysis. Other arboviral diseases, including those transmitted by ticks, such as tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, although highly relevant to global public health, had a low number of publications in this research database and were therefore not discussed in this research.

4.7. Prevention, Control and Surveillance

Given this scenario, it is necessary to intensify efforts to control arboviruses worldwide through multivariate intervention measures [9,101]. The best ways of preventing and reducing morbidity from arboviruses continue to be vector control measures and human behavioral interventions, such as educating the population to prevent possible breeding sites near their homes, i.e., avoiding the accumulation of standing water without adequate treatment [71]. Other adjuvant measures in the control of arboviruses would be the improvement of basic sanitation and urban infrastructure, as these social factors are associated with an increase in cases [102]; the use of insecticides and larvicides by vector control services; and the maintenance of community educational campaigns, which present significant results when carried out in a timely manner and integrated with other forms of control [102,103].
In order to contain the permanence of mosquitoes inappropriately introduced in non-endemic areas, high-risk border areas need to maintain entomological surveillance continuously and more effectively, due to the existence of great human and animal mobilization, as well as the high flow of interaction actions on commercial routes [9,101]. As a vector surveillance measure, the collection and laboratory analysis of adult mosquito samples, the implementation of integrated sentinel surveillance of vectors and diseases (with genomic identifications of the virus found) and early warning systems based on climate, using available technologies, can be included [104].
A measure that could be adopted in these areas would be the use of chemical larvicides such as pyriproxyfen (PPF), associated with biological larvicides such as the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana contributing to the reduction in vector population density and consequent reduction in the risk of arbovirus transmission [71]. The use of biological larvicides functions as a good ecological alternative in combat vectors, given the resistance acquired by insects to chemical larvicides [105,106]. The use of the fungus Beauveria bassiana, for example, can shorten the survival of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, can hinder viral replication of dengue in their midgut and can still be transmitted through mating to new populations [107].
An emerging strategy for controlling Aedes-borne diseases would be the use of Wolbachia, an intracellular bacterium, existing in most insect species, which has the ability to block virus transmission in hematophagous arthropods [75,108]. The strategy consists of the regular release of Wolbachia-infected females into a wild insect population, with the aim of manipulating reproductive outcomes and ensuring that the surviving reproductive population is infected [109]. Studies show that the introduction of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia (wMel strain) can contribute to reducing the incidence of dengue cases and other arboviruses in urban areas with low or moderate endemicity [75].
In addition, maintaining biodiversity can be considered a control measure, since forest conservation and the presence of wild or domestic animals are considered protective factors against arbovirus transmission to humans [110]. This is because an increase in the number of host species and the presence of less competent and more resistant vectors reduces the possibility of arbovirus transmission to more susceptible hosts [111].
Thus, the global reduction in arboviruses requires the use of diversified and comprehensive strategies, involving political, social and technological efforts. The growing trend in the number of cases, as well as the spread of arboviruses to new areas, demonstrates the need and urgency to improve early warning systems for possible outbreaks. It is therefore imperative to develop epidemiological surveillance strategies that consider not only biomedical aspects, but also the socio-environmental, economic and geopolitical dimensions that influence the spread of these arboviruses, given the role of socio-environmental factors in the epidemiology of arboviral diseases. As observed in other studies [5,57,60], the interconnection between global warming, urbanization, human mobility and changes in ecosystems suggests that effective control of these diseases requires international collaboration, investment in research, strengthening of public health systems and implementation of proactive prevention policies that take into account the dynamism and unpredictability of vectors in a scenario of global climate change.

5. Limitations

The main limitation of this study was the use of a single research platform, which, despite being considered one of the most comprehensive, does not cover all the existing publications on the subject. Because of this limitation, there is a potential citation bias. In addition, due to the large area of knowledge analyzed, social and climatic aspects were not covered in greater depth.

6. Considerations

This study presented a brief review of the academic literature and bibliometric aspects of climate change research, with a focus on human arboviruses. The literature found points to a strong association between terrestrial warming and the risk of new outbreaks of arboviral diseases in endemic and non-endemic areas. It is therefore necessary to invest in research, strengthen public health systems and implement proactive prevention policies that take into account the dynamism and unpredictability of the vectors in a scenario of global climate change. It is hoped that this review will contribute to the development of new scientific studies on this subject.

Supplementary Materials

The following supporting information can be downloaded at https://www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/cli13020035/s1: Table S1: Database used in the research; Table S2: Country clusters found in the VOSviewer analysis.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, M.W.S. and P.L.C.; methodology, M.W.S., L.F.d.S. and P.L.C.; validation, M.W.S. and P.L.C.; formal analysis, M.W.S., M.L.F. and P.L.C.; research, M.W.S., M.L.F. and P.L.C.; writing, M.W.S., M.L.F., L.F.d.S. and P.L.C. proofreading and editing, M.W.S., M.L.F. and L.F.d.S.; visualisation, M.W.S. and L.F.d.S.; supervision, M.L.F. and P.L.C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Data Availability Statement

Details of this research can be found in the supplementary tables. Other data can be made available on request.

Acknowledgments

We thank Alec Briam Lacerda (Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo) for providing the Figure produced by QGIS. The author M.L.F. thanks the “Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico” (CNPq) for the scholarship under Project Number 307185/2023-0. The author L.F.d.S. thanks the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel—Brazil (CAPES)—Financing Code 001 and the Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Figure 1. Documents related to arboviruses and climate change by year. Source: Scopus, 2023.
Figure 1. Documents related to arboviruses and climate change by year. Source: Scopus, 2023.
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Figure 2. Recurrences of keywords by country. Source: Scopus, processed with VOSviewer.
Figure 2. Recurrences of keywords by country. Source: Scopus, processed with VOSviewer.
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Figure 3. Publications related to climate change and arboviruses by country. Source: SciVal Scopus. Processed with QGIS v3.22.9 software.
Figure 3. Publications related to climate change and arboviruses by country. Source: SciVal Scopus. Processed with QGIS v3.22.9 software.
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Figure 4. Highlighting the recurrence of words. Source: Scopus processed with VOSviewer.
Figure 4. Highlighting the recurrence of words. Source: Scopus processed with VOSviewer.
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Table 1. The ten most active authors in publishing articles on arboviruses and climate change.
Table 1. The ten most active authors in publishing articles on arboviruses and climate change.
RankAuthor NameFrequency (n = 1644)h-Index *
1stHu, W.3444
2ndTong, S.2479
3rdLiu, Q.2354
4thRocklöv, J.2254
5thBi, P.1649
6thLowe, R.1635
7thHarley, D.1424
8thWilder-Smith, A.1362
9thBambrick, H.1224
10thViennet, E.1214
Source: SciVal Scopus. * h-index: indicates a balance between the productivity (academic output) and citation impact (citation count) of an organization’s publications.
Table 2. The 10 most productive research centers in the field of arboviruses and climate change.
Table 2. The 10 most productive research centers in the field of arboviruses and climate change.
RankResearch CenterFrequency (n = 1644)Country
1stThe University of Queensland50Australia
2ndQueensland University of Technology47Australia
3rdFundação Oswaldo Cruz43Brazil
4thLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine41U.K.
5thChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention34China
6thThe Australian National University32Australia
7thUniversity of Florida30United States
8thUniversidade de São Paulo28Brazil
9thQIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute27Australia
10thInstitut Pasteur Paris26France
Source: SciVal Scopus.
Table 3. The 10 most productive journals in the field of arboviruses and climate change.
Table 3. The 10 most productive journals in the field of arboviruses and climate change.
RankJournalFrequency (n = 1644)JIF *
1stPLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases100 (6.1%)3.8
2ndPLOS ONE48 (2.9%)3.7
3rdAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene42 (2.5%)3.3
4thJournal of Medical Entomology33 (2.0%)2.1
5thInter. Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health31 (1.9%)4614
6thActa Tropica24 (1.45%)2.7
7thViruses23 (1.4%)4.7
8thParasites & Vectors21 (1.3%)3.2
9thScience of The Total Environment21 (1.3%)9.8
10thBMC Infectious Diseases20 (1.2%)3.7
Source: SciVal Scopus. * JIF: the impact factor of journals is measured by the sum of citations received in the year of calculation divided by the total number of articles published in the previous two years.
Table 4. Frequency of diseases or pathogens found in the keyword filter.
Table 4. Frequency of diseases or pathogens found in the keyword filter.
Disease/PathogenFrequency
(Keyword by Filter)
Dengue/virus/fever/hemorrhagic fever1468
West Nile virus/fever/flavivirus371
Zika virus/fever/virus infection354
Chikungunya/virus/fever281
Japanese encephalitis/virus/encephalitis, Japanese164
Yellow fever53
Ross River vírus48
Source: SciVal Scopus.
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Sant’Anna, M.W.; Ferreira, M.L.; da Silva, L.F.; Côrtes, P.L. Climate Change and Arbovirus: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis. Climate 2025, 13, 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020035

AMA Style

Sant’Anna MW, Ferreira ML, da Silva LF, Côrtes PL. Climate Change and Arbovirus: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis. Climate. 2025; 13(2):35. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020035

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sant’Anna, Maryly Weyll, Maurício Lamano Ferreira, Leonardo Ferreira da Silva, and Pedro Luiz Côrtes. 2025. "Climate Change and Arbovirus: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis" Climate 13, no. 2: 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020035

APA Style

Sant’Anna, M. W., Ferreira, M. L., da Silva, L. F., & Côrtes, P. L. (2025). Climate Change and Arbovirus: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis. Climate, 13(2), 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020035

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