Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Results
2.1. Accuracy of the Model’s Predicted Results
2.2. Changes in the Distribution Area of Zelkova schneideriana
2.3. Changes in the Latitude and Elevation of the Distribution Area of Zelkova schneideriana
2.4. Internal Structural Changes in the Distribution Area of Zelkova schneideriana
2.5. Factors Influencing Changes in the Distribution Area of Zelkova schneideriana
3. Discussion
3.1. Factors Influencing the Distribution Area of Zelkova schneideriana
3.2. Range Changes of the Distribution Area of Zelkova schneideriana
3.3. Fragmentation of Distribution Range Landscape
4. Materials and Methods
4.1. Data Collection
4.2. Species Distribution Model
4.3. Analysis of Factors Influencing Changes in Distribution Range
4.4. Analysis of Changes in Distribution Range
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Metric | Sensitivity | Specificity | Calibration |
---|---|---|---|
TSS | 96.474 | 83.997 | 0.805 |
AUC | 96.513 | 84.936 | 0.956 |
Environment Variables | Relative Contribution |
---|---|
Bio6 | 50.5% |
Bio2 | 28.5% |
Bio15 | 13.4% |
Elevation | 7.6% |
Scenario | Time | Code | 95% Quantiles | Mean | Units | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.5% | 97.5% | |||||
Current | 2000s | Bio6 | −5.465 | 6.353 | 0.796 | °C |
SSP1-2.6 | 2021–2040 | Bio6 | −3.903 | 7.300 | 2.060 | |
2041–2060 | Bio6 | −3.605 | 8.000 | 2.561 | ||
2061–2080 | Bio6 | −3.600 | 7.903 | 2.701 | ||
2081–2100 | Bio6 | −3.102 | 8.600 | 3.449 | ||
SSP5-8.5 | 2021–2040 | Bio6 | −2.903 | 7.502 | 2.672 | |
2041–2060 | Bio6 | −1.700 | 8.603 | 3.751 | ||
2061–2080 | Bio6 | −0.303 | 9.503 | 4.807 | ||
2081–2100 | Bio6 | −0.500 | 10.000 | 4.985 | ||
Current | 2000s | Bio2 | 10.250 | 6.548 | 8.116 | °C |
SSP1-2.6 | 2021–2040 | Bio2 | 10.367 | 6.773 | 8.424 | |
2041–2060 | Bio2 | 10.650 | 6.991 | 8.699 | ||
2061–2080 | Bio2 | 10.483 | 6.658 | 8.389 | ||
2081–2100 | Bio2 | 10.517 | 6.374 | 8.243 | ||
SSP5-8.5 | 2021–2040 | Bio2 | 10.167 | 6.542 | 8.116 | |
2041–2060 | Bio2 | 10.425 | 6.841 | 8.425 | ||
2061–2080 | Bio2 | 10.450 | 6.816 | 8.499 | ||
2081–2100 | Bio2 | 10.842 | 7.308 | 8.971 | ||
Current | 2000s | Bio15 | 85.917 | 46.595 | 62.784 | mm |
SSP1-2.6 | 2021–2040 | Bio15 | 87.016 | 49.086 | 64.053 | |
2041–2060 | Bio15 | 85.576 | 49.588 | 63.162 | ||
2061–2080 | Bio15 | 89.904 | 46.841 | 65.417 | ||
2081–2100 | Bio15 | 86.647 | 44.537 | 63.900 | ||
SSP5-8.5 | 2021–2040 | Bio15 | 87.585 | 47.330 | 63.172 | |
2041–2060 | Bio15 | 90.637 | 52.320 | 67.198 | ||
2061–2080 | Bio15 | 86.172 | 45.350 | 64.493 | ||
2081–2100 | Bio15 | 90.718 | 51.110 | 68.389 |
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Wang, C.; Zhang, Y.; Sheng, Q.; Zhu, Z. Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China. Plants 2024, 13, 798. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13060798
Wang C, Zhang Y, Sheng Q, Zhu Z. Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China. Plants. 2024; 13(6):798. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13060798
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Chen, Yuanlan Zhang, Qianqian Sheng, and Zunling Zhu. 2024. "Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China" Plants 13, no. 6: 798. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13060798