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Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

1,*,† and 2,†
Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, Deichmanns Aue 31–37, 53179 Bonn, Germany
Federal Ministry for Transport and Digital Infrastructure, Robert-Schumann-Platz 1, 53175 Bonn, Germany
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Academic Editor: Wolfgang Kainz
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2016, 5(7), 101;
Received: 3 March 2016 / Revised: 31 May 2016 / Accepted: 15 June 2016 / Published: 23 June 2016
PDF [3373 KB, uploaded 23 June 2016]


Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential. View Full-Text
Keywords: urban growth; Germany; scenario; mitigation; adaptation; Land Use Scanner urban growth; Germany; scenario; mitigation; adaptation; Land Use Scanner

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Hoymann, J.; Goetzke, R. Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2016, 5, 101.

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