An Interval Prediction Method Based on TSKANMixer Architecture for Predicting the State of Health of Lithium-Ion Batteries

Current state-of-health (SOH) point prediction methods are highly accurate during early cycles. However, the prediction error increases significantly with increasing numbers of battery charging and discharging cycles, especially in the later stages of degradation. This leads to the intensification of uncertainty regarding SOH, which seriously affects the accuracy and safety of judgments about battery failure. To solve this problem and overcome the limitation of human parameter tuning, this study proposes a method for predicting the SOH interval of lithium batteries based on a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and the chaotic evolutionary optimization (CEO) algorithm to optimize the TSKANMixer network. First, battery charge/discharge curves are analyzed, and health features were extracted to establish a SOH estimation model based on TSKANMixer. Then, the hyperparameters of the TSKANMixer model were optimized using the CEO algorithm to further improve the prediction performance. Finally, the prediction of SOH intervals was implemented using SDE based on the CEO-TSKANMixer model. The results show that the CEO optimization brought the RMSE of SOH prediction for the three cells down to no more than 1%, which was 72.70% lower than that of the baseline model. The PICP of the SDE-based interval prediction model exceeded 90% for all of them, and the NMPIW was no more than 6.47%. This indicates that the model can accurately quantify the SOH uncertainty and effectively support the early warning of the risk of battery failure in the late stages of attenuation. The method can also be used for SOH interval prediction for subsequent battery clusters, reducing the computational complexity of cell-by-cell analysis and improving the overall efficiency of battery management systems.