Research on Stochastic Dual Model Predictive Control and Application to Solar Thermal Collector Field

Zhang, Xiaoyan; Wang, Diandian; Chen, Chaobo; Song, Xiaohua; Zhao, Suping

doi:10.3390/electronics14102048

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Open AccessArticle

Research on Stochastic Dual Model Predictive Control and Application to Solar Thermal Collector Field

by

Xiaoyan Zhang

,

Diandian Wang

,

Chaobo Chen

^*

,

Xiaohua Song

and

Suping Zhao

School of Electronic Information Engineering, Xi’an Technological University, Xi’an 710021, China

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Electronics 2025, 14(10), 2048; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14102048

Submission received: 8 April 2025 / Revised: 14 May 2025 / Accepted: 15 May 2025 / Published: 18 May 2025

(This article belongs to the Section Systems & Control Engineering)

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Abstract

Uncertainty is inevitable in real-world systems. If uncertainty is not effectively addressed, it may degrade the performance of model predictive control (MPC). This paper proposes a stochastic dual model predictive control (SDMPC) method for linear systems with parameter uncertainty and measurement noise. The method not only actively explores uncertainty while optimizing control but also introduces probabilistic output constraints to expand the set of feasible solutions. Specifically, Kalman filtering is employed to construct a real-time parameter estimator. The future output errors are incorporated into the nominal cost function as exploration signals to balance exploration and exploitation. Simulation results in the field of solar collectors show that SDMPC can effectively track the temperature by varying the inlet flow under changing environmental and opportunity constraints. The cumulative performance index of SDMPC is 125.3, compared to 316.4 obtained by conventional MPC, validating its effectiveness.

Keywords: stochastic model; dual control; model predictive control; solar thermal collector field

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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, X.; Wang, D.; Chen, C.; Song, X.; Zhao, S. Research on Stochastic Dual Model Predictive Control and Application to Solar Thermal Collector Field. Electronics 2025, 14, 2048. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14102048

AMA Style

Zhang X, Wang D, Chen C, Song X, Zhao S. Research on Stochastic Dual Model Predictive Control and Application to Solar Thermal Collector Field. Electronics. 2025; 14(10):2048. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14102048

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Xiaoyan, Diandian Wang, Chaobo Chen, Xiaohua Song, and Suping Zhao. 2025. "Research on Stochastic Dual Model Predictive Control and Application to Solar Thermal Collector Field" Electronics 14, no. 10: 2048. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14102048

APA Style

Zhang, X., Wang, D., Chen, C., Song, X., & Zhao, S. (2025). Research on Stochastic Dual Model Predictive Control and Application to Solar Thermal Collector Field. Electronics, 14(10), 2048. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14102048

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