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Article

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Ecosystem Service Value Assessment in Citarum Watershed, Indonesia: A Multi-Scenario and Multi-Scale Approach

by
Irmadi Nahib
1,2,
Yudi Wahyudin
3,
Widiatmaka Widiatmaka
4,
Suria Darma Tarigan
4,
Wiwin Ambarwulan
2,*,
Fadhlullah Ramadhani
5,
Bono Pranoto
2,
Nunung Puji Nugroho
6,
Turmudi Turmudi
2,
Darmawan Listya Cahya
2,7,
Mulyanto Darmawan
5,
Suprajaka Suprajaka
7,
Jaka Suryanta
2 and
Bambang Winarno
2
1
Study Program of Natural Resources and Environmental Management Science (NREMS), Graduate School, Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB) University, Bogor 16143, West Java, Indonesia
2
Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia (BRIN), Bogor 16911, West Java, Indonesia
3
Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Djuanda, Jl. Tol Ciawi No. 1, Ciawi, Bogor 16720, West Java, Indonesia
4
Department of Soil Science and Land Resources, Faculty of Agriculture, Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB) University, Jl. Meranti Kampus IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, West Java, Indonesia
5
Research Center for Geoinformatics, National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia (BRIN), Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Samaun Samadikun, Kota Bandung 40135, West Java, Indonesia
6
Research Center for Ecology, National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia (BRIN), Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Soekarno Cibinong, Bogor 16911, West Java, Indonesia
7
Urban and Regional Planning Study Program, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Esa Unggul, Jl. Arjuna Utara No. 9, Kebon Jeruk, Jakarta Barat 11510, Special Capital Region of Jakarta (DKI Jakarta), Indonesia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Resources 2026, 15(2), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15020024 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 26 November 2025 / Revised: 18 January 2026 / Accepted: 21 January 2026 / Published: 31 January 2026
Versions Notes

Abstract

Rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes in densely populated watersheds pose serious challenges to the sustainability of ecosystem services (ES), yet their spatially explicit economic consequences remain insufficiently understood. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal dynamics of LULC and ecosystem service values (ESVs) in the Citarum Watershed, Indonesia, one of the country’s most critical and intensively transformed watersheds. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 2003, 2013, and 2023 was classified using a Random Forest algorithm, while future LULC conditions for 2043 were projected using a Multi-layer Perceptron–Markov Chain (MLP–MC) model under three scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Protecting Paddy Field (PPF), and Protecting Forest Area (PFA). ESVs were quantified at multiple spatial scales (county, 250 m grids, and 100 m grids) using both the Traditional Benefit Transfer (TBT) method and a Spatial Benefit Transfer (SBT) approach that integrates biophysical indicators with socio-economic variables. The contribution of LULC transitions to ESV dynamics was further assessed using the Ecosystem Service Change Intensity (ESCI) index. The results reveal substantial historical forest and shrubland losses, alongside rapid expansion of settlements and dryland agriculture, indicating intensifying anthropogenic pressure on watershed functions. Scenario analysis shows continued degradation under BAU, limited mitigation under PPF, and improved forest retention under PFA; although settlement expansion persists across all scenarios. Total ESV declined from USD 2641.33 million in 2003 to USD 1585.01 million in 2023, representing a cumulative loss of 46.13%. Projections indicate severe ESV losses under BAU and PPF by 2043, while PFA substantially reduces, but does not eliminate economic degradation. ESCI results identify forest and shrubland conversion to settlements and dryland agriculture as the dominant drivers of ESV decline. These findings demonstrate that integrating multi-scenario LULC modeling with spatially explicit ESV assessment provides a more robust basis for ecosystem-based spatial planning and supports sustainable watershed management under increasing development pressure.
Keywords: ecosystem services change index; ecosystem service values; land use land cover; multi-scenario analysis; multi-scale assessment; sensitivity analysis; spatial benefit transfer; spatial scale; watershed management ecosystem services change index; ecosystem service values; land use land cover; multi-scenario analysis; multi-scale assessment; sensitivity analysis; spatial benefit transfer; spatial scale; watershed management

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Nahib, I.; Wahyudin, Y.; Widiatmaka, W.; Tarigan, S.D.; Ambarwulan, W.; Ramadhani, F.; Pranoto, B.; Nugroho, N.P.; Turmudi, T.; Cahya, D.L.; et al. Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Ecosystem Service Value Assessment in Citarum Watershed, Indonesia: A Multi-Scenario and Multi-Scale Approach. Resources 2026, 15, 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15020024

AMA Style

Nahib I, Wahyudin Y, Widiatmaka W, Tarigan SD, Ambarwulan W, Ramadhani F, Pranoto B, Nugroho NP, Turmudi T, Cahya DL, et al. Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Ecosystem Service Value Assessment in Citarum Watershed, Indonesia: A Multi-Scenario and Multi-Scale Approach. Resources. 2026; 15(2):24. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15020024

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nahib, Irmadi, Yudi Wahyudin, Widiatmaka Widiatmaka, Suria Darma Tarigan, Wiwin Ambarwulan, Fadhlullah Ramadhani, Bono Pranoto, Nunung Puji Nugroho, Turmudi Turmudi, Darmawan Listya Cahya, and et al. 2026. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Ecosystem Service Value Assessment in Citarum Watershed, Indonesia: A Multi-Scenario and Multi-Scale Approach" Resources 15, no. 2: 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15020024

APA Style

Nahib, I., Wahyudin, Y., Widiatmaka, W., Tarigan, S. D., Ambarwulan, W., Ramadhani, F., Pranoto, B., Nugroho, N. P., Turmudi, T., Cahya, D. L., Darmawan, M., Suprajaka, S., Suryanta, J., & Winarno, B. (2026). Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Ecosystem Service Value Assessment in Citarum Watershed, Indonesia: A Multi-Scenario and Multi-Scale Approach. Resources, 15(2), 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15020024

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