Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Aim
2. Peak Minerals and Resource Criticality
2.1. Background to Peak Minerals
- A progression from cheaper easier processing to more complex and expensive;
- The need for transition post-peak, both in terms of:
- - finding substitutes for providing the services for which the metals were used;
- - considering alternatives to the mining industry for providing economic growth;
- Both a regional or national scale—a global peak analysis (as is common for oil) need not be the default scale of a peak analysis.
2.2. Criticality Framework: Availability, Addiction, Alternatives
- Availability of the resource: This included both geological availability and limits to accessibility which could arise through limited capital and infrastructure for developing the resource, but also limited access where prevented through land use conflict.
- Addiction to resource use by society: This reflected both demand for the resource (and associated revenues) and the extent to which end uses for the metal (and monies) are pervasive and critical in society—the higher the addiction, the more difficult it could be to make a transition post-peak.
- Alternatives for transition: This referred to the potential to substitute terrestrial ore reserves with alternatives—for example ocean based resources, recycled scrap, dematerialization or substitution with another metal or non-metal to fulfill the function.
2.3. Production Projections: Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model
3. Results
3.1. Peak Production Projections
Type | Peak Year | Max Producation | Units |
---|---|---|---|
Coal | 2060 | 1.1 | Gt/year |
Copper | 2024 | 1.2 | Mt Cu/year |
Gold | 2021 | 420 | t Au/year |
Iron | 2039 | 850 | Mt Fe Ore/year |
Lithium | 2015 | 15.8 | kt Li/year |
3.2. Comparing Availability, Addiction, Alternatives
- (i) Are the resources available at an acceptable economic, social and environmental cost to meet national needs?
- (ii) Where exported to meet international demand—how are both the metals and monies derived from mining and minerals processing used?
- (iii) Are the global end-uses of metal being used within ethical supply chains to meet basic human needs or discretionary desires, and are they being used efficiently (taking account of dematerialization) in uses that help add to the stocks of natural, manufactured, financial, human and social capital?
- (iv) Are the monies derived from mining used to underpin the long term prosperity and sustainability of the nation—is such use in line with weak or strong sustainability?
Commodity | Availability | Addiction | Alternatives | Issue for Australia |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coal |
|
|
|
|
Copper |
|
|
|
|
Gold |
|
|
|
|
Iron/Steel |
|
|
|
|
Lithium |
|
|
|
|
Phosphorous |
|
|
|
|
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
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Giurco, D.; Mohr, S.; Mudd, G.; Mason, L.; Prior, T. Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections. Resources 2012, 1, 23-33. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources1010023
Giurco D, Mohr S, Mudd G, Mason L, Prior T. Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections. Resources. 2012; 1(1):23-33. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources1010023
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiurco, Damien, Steve Mohr, Gavin Mudd, Leah Mason, and Timothy Prior. 2012. "Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections" Resources 1, no. 1: 23-33. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources1010023