Battery Swapping Stations for Grid Peak Shaving Under Virtual Power Plant Aggregation: A Complex-Network Evolutionary Diffusion Analysis

The rapid growth of distributed renewable generation and electric vehicles has increased the demand for flexible peak-shaving resources. Battery swapping stations (BSSs), which centrally manage standardized batteries under the battery-as-a-service model, can provide station-to-grid (S2G) services when aggregated by virtual power plants (VPPs). However, S2G adoption is influenced by contract design, market returns, subsidies, battery degradation, and heterogeneous consumer attitudes. This study develops a complex-network evolutionary diffusion model for VPP–BSS cooperation. The framework integrates a VPP profit-accounting module, a segmented Hotelling demand model, and an evolutionary game on a Newman–Watts small-world network. BSS strategies are updated through a partial asynchronous Fermi rule to reflect bounded rationality and investment inertia. Numerical simulations examine contract parameters, subsidy policies, consumer structures, exogenous variables, and network characteristics. The results show that S2G adoption follows an S-shaped trajectory but does not automatically reach full penetration. Successful diffusion requires a feasible combination of electricity prices, revenue sharing, settlement mechanisms, subsidies, consumer acceptance, and available battery capacity. The findings also reveal a trade-off between promoting BSS participation and maintaining VPP profitability, while robustness tests confirm the stability of the main conclusions.