Contagion Control of Debt Default Risk in Energy Firms: A CA-SIRS Model

From the perspective of interactions between energy firm behavior and government intervention strategies, this study develops a contagion control model for energy firm debt default risk utilizing cellular automata and complex network theory. This research investigates the spatio-temporal evolution of risk transmission and evaluates the efficacy of various mitigation protocols through computational simulation. The research results indicate that: (1) An escalation in both the transmission likelihood and the rate of immunity decay significantly amplifies the propagation strength of debt default risks. Conversely, the stability of the energy firm network is bolstered as the probabilities of immunity and recovery increase. (2) The contagion intensity for debt default risk is positively correlated with market noise, the risk appetite of energy firms, and their corporate influence. It is negatively correlated with risk awareness, creditworthiness, regulatory intensity, and policy subsidies. Furthermore, it exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with investor sentiment. (3) Within the interconnected network of energy firms, risk contagion can be effectively mitigated not only by enhancing risk perception and credit standing but also by guiding risk preference and managing firm influence. Furthermore, the integration and adjustment of government intervention strategies, such as regulatory intensity and policy subsidies, can more efficiently accelerate the eradication of debt default risk among energy firms.