Research on Investment Decisions and the Coordination of Emission Reduction in the Logistics Service Supply Chain Considering Technical Innovation Output Uncertainty

In the face of economic, social, and environmental pressures, the issue of sustainable development has garnered widespread attention in the Logistics Service Supply Chain (LSSC) with risk attitudes under Technical Output Uncertainty. In this regard, this paper first constructs an optimal emission reduction investment game model for an LSSC composed of Logistics Service Integrators (LSIs) and Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) against the backdrop of Technical Output Uncertainty. To this end, it quantifies the participants’ risk attitudes using a mean-variance model to analyze optimal emission reduction investment decisions for centralized and decentralized LSSC under different levels of risk tolerance. Subsequently, it designs a joint contract with altruistic preferences for sharing emission reduction costs in the LSSC. This contract analyzes the parameter constraints for achieving Pareto optimization within the supply chain. Finally, the study employs a case simulation to analyze the changes in expected revenues for centralized LSSC and joint contracts under different risk tolerance levels. The study reveals that (1) in a centralized LSSC, under risk-neutral attitudes, there exists a unique optimal emission reduction investment, which yields the highest expected return from emission reduction. However, under risk-averse attitudes, the expected return is always lower than the optimal expected return under risk neutrality. (2) In a decentralized LSSC, the emission reduction investment decisions of the Logistics Service Providers are similar to those in a centralized LSSC. (3) Under risk-neutral attitudes, the cost-sharing and altruistic preference-based joint contract can also coordinate the risk-averse LSSC under certain constraints, and by adjusting the cost-sharing and altruistic preference parameters, the expected returns can be reasonably allocated.