Technological Singularity: What Do We Really Know?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. What Do We Know
2.1. Metasystem Transitions
2.2. Timeline
- Systems with a certain level of control grow exponentially (at least, before the next metasystem transition) in their capacities or complexity.
- The time before the next metasystem transition decreases geometrically and the growth rate increases geometrically from transition to transition.
3. Predictions
3.1. Timeline Extrapolation
3.2. Possible Scenarios
4. Misconceptions
4.1. True Singularity
4.2. Humans
4.3. We Have Choice
4.4. Artificial Superintelligence
- the concept of Singularity understood as a sequence of accelerating metasystem transitions does not depend on the idea of superhuman strong AI, and can be defended independently;
- the idea that superhuman general AI can be created in few decades is justified by evidence of the doubling times of different singularity technologies.
5. Conclusions
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Kurzweil, R. The Singularity is Near; Viking Books: New York, NY, USA, 2005; ISBN 978-0670033843. [Google Scholar]
- Garis, H. How Will the Artilect War Start? In The End of the Beginning: Life, Society and Economy on the Brink of the Singularity; Goertzel, B., Goertzel, T., Eds.; Humanity+ Press: Leeds, UK, 2015; ISBN 0692457666. [Google Scholar]
- Wikipedia: Technological Singularity. Available online: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity (accessed on 22 February 2018).
- Vinge, V. The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era. In Proceedings of the Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace, Cleveland, OH, USA, 30–31 March 1993; pp. 11–22. [Google Scholar]
- Braga, A.; Logan, R.K. The Emperor of Strong AI is Naked: Limits to Artificial Intelligence. Computers 2018. (submitted). [Google Scholar]
- Heylighen, F. Return to Eden? Promises and Perils on the Road to Global Superintelligence. In The End of the Beginning: Life, Society and Economy on the Brink of the Singularity; Goertzel, B., Goertzel, T., Eds.; Humanity+ Press: Leeds, UK, 2015; ISBN 0692457666. [Google Scholar]
- Turchin, V.F. The Phenomenon of Science: A Cybernetic Approach to Human Evolution, 1st ed.; Columbia University Press: New York, NY, USA, 1977; 348p, ISBN 978-0231039833. [Google Scholar]
- Heylighen, F. (Meta)systems as Constraints on Variation: A classification and natural history of metasystem transitions. World Futur. J. Gen. Evol. 1995, 45, 59–85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wikipedia: Universal Evolution. Available online: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_evolution (accessed on 22 February 2018).
- Moravec, H. When will computer hardware match the human brain? J. Transhumanism 1998, 1, 10. [Google Scholar]
- Bostrom, N. How Long Before Superintelligence? Linguist. Philos. Investig. 2006, 5, 11–30. [Google Scholar]
- Baum, S.; Goertzel, B.; Goertzel, T. How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78, 185–195. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Grace, K.; Salvatier, J.; Dafoe, A.; Zhang, B.; Evans, O. When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. arXiv, 2017; arXiv:1705.08807. [Google Scholar]
- Goertzel, T.; Goertzel, B. (Eds.) Predicting the Age of Post-Human Intelligences. In The End of the Beginning: Life, Society and Economy on the Brink of the Singularity; Humanity+ Press: Leeds, UK, 2015; ISBN 0692457666. [Google Scholar]
- Vidal, C. Distributing Cognition: From Local Brains to the Global Brain. In The End of the Beginning: Life, Society and Economy on the Brink of the Singularity; Goertzel, B., Goertzel, T., Eds.; Humanity+ Press: Leeds, UK, 2015; ISBN 0692457666. [Google Scholar]
- Smolin, L. The status of cosmological natural selection. arXiv, 2006; arXiv:hep-th/0612185. [Google Scholar]
- Susskind, L. The Cosmic Landscape: String Theory and the Illusion of Intelligent Design, 1st ed.; Little, Brown: Boston, MA, USA, 2005; ISBN 978-0316155793. [Google Scholar]
- Grey, A. The Singularity and the Methuselarity: Similarities and Differences. In The End of the Beginning: Life, Society and Economy on the Brink of the Singularity; Goertzel, B., Goertzel, T., Eds.; Humanity+ Press: Leeds, UK, 2015; ISBN 0692457666. [Google Scholar]
- Muehlhauser, L.; Salamon, A. Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import. In Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment; Eden, A.H., Moor, J.H., Soraker, J.H., Steinhart, E., Eds.; Springer: Berlin, Germany, 2012; pp. 15–42. ISBN 978-3642325601. [Google Scholar]
- Loosemore, R.; Goertzel, B. Why an Intelligence Explosion is Probable. In Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment; Eden, A.H., Moor, J.H., Soraker, J.H., Steinhart, E., Eds.; Springer: Berlin, Germany, 2012; pp. 83–98. ISBN 978-3642325601. [Google Scholar]
- Schmidhuber, J. Formal Theory of Creativity, Fun, and Intrinsic Motivation (1990–2010). IEEE Trans. Auton. Ment. Dev. 2010, 2, 230–247. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Chemical era | Chemical forms of life |
Motion | |
Irritability | |
Cybernetic era | Neural network (simple reflex) |
Association (conditional reflex) | |
Era of mind | Thought |
Culture, cultural integration |
© 2018 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Potapov, A. Technological Singularity: What Do We Really Know? Information 2018, 9, 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/info9040082
Potapov A. Technological Singularity: What Do We Really Know? Information. 2018; 9(4):82. https://doi.org/10.3390/info9040082
Chicago/Turabian StylePotapov, Alexey. 2018. "Technological Singularity: What Do We Really Know?" Information 9, no. 4: 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/info9040082