Mapping the Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity and Trends of Global Catholic Development After WWII

Abstract

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of religion is crucial for explaining cultural and geopolitical transformations. Based on multi-source religious demographic data, this study analyzes the spatio-temporal dynamics of global Catholicism after WWII using gravity migration and standard deviational ellipse models, revealing spatial heterogeneity and tracing the migration of its developmental center. Spatial typology techniques are further employed to classify patterns of Catholic growth efficiency. Our findings reveal that: (1) The absolute number of global Catholics has steadily increased, exhibiting a west-heavy, east-light pattern, with particularly notable growth in the Americas and Sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of Catholics has declined—especially in traditional strongholds such as Europe and the Americas—while rising in emerging missionary regions, notably in Africa. (2) The macro-trend of Catholic development demonstrates a continuous southward shift in its global center of gravity, transitioning from Europe to the Global South—particularly regions like Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The standard deviational ellipse reveals pronounced oscillation, with an increasing rotation angle and a southward tilt, suggesting an accelerating pace of change in the global distribution of Catholicism. (3) Post-WWII, Catholic growth outpaced population in 75.57% of countries, though modestly. Developmental efficiency temporally followed a trajectory of “broad weak positive—drastic polarization—weak equilibrium”, while spatially reflecting pronounced regional heterogeneity shaped by the combined effects of colonial legacies, social demands, political dynamics, and modernity shocks. Overall, our study provides empirical support for understanding the links between religious spatial patterns and social transformation.

1. Introduction

Throughout the annals of human civilization, religion has enduringly served as a pivotal force in shaping social development and cultural configurations. As a religious system with a massive global following and profound historical legacy, Catholicism’s developmental trajectory not only encapsulates the threads of doctrinal dissemination and faith practices but also mirrors the deep-seated logic underpinning transformations in the global political-economic order and cultural exchange conflicts. The post-WWII era has witnessed momentous global shifts—the collapse of colonial systems, the ascendancy of globalization, and successive technological revolutions—all of which have introduced unprecedented opportunities and challenges to religious development. Against this backdrop, an in-depth exploration of Catholicism’s spatio-temporal dynamics not only facilitates the unraveling of religious systems’ adaptive mechanisms in modern society but also provides a unique analytical lens for understanding the reciprocal relationship between religion and social structures.

In the domain of spatio-temporal analysis in religious development, early scholarship predominantly drew upon classical sociological theories of religion to explore the reciprocal relationship between religion and social structure (Weber 1905; Durkheim 1912). As research advanced, religious geography emerged as a discipline, focusing on decoding religious phenomena through a spatial lens. Centered on the spatial distribution, diffusion, and environmental interactions of religious systems, this field provides critical disciplinary frameworks for analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of global Catholicism. For example, Merriam’s (1921) seminal study of religious geographical distribution pioneered the use of geographic-spatial perspectives to examine disparities in religious development. Contemporary research on religious spatiality primarily concentrates on global demographic shifts in believer populations, yet tends to prioritize graphical representations of statistical data (Barrett et al. 2001; Warf and Vincent 2007), with theoretically grounded academic inquiries remaining comparatively scarce.

Since WWII, the developmental patterns of global Catholicism have undergone remarkable spatio-temporal transformations, prompting scholars to explore them from diverse theoretical frameworks. Kratochvíl (2020) emphasizes that Catholic geopolitics encompasses not only spatial but also temporal dimensions. The Church employs two distinct strategies—secularization timelines and sacralization of geopolitical time—in different regions, each exerting unique impacts on local politics. He argues that any analysis of Catholic geopolitics is incomplete without accounting for temporal factors. Carney (2021), leveraging data from the World Christian Encyclopedia, identified a recent trend wherein the center of Catholicism has exhibited a shift from Europe toward the “Global South”. This geographical restructuring profoundly shapes the theological agendas and social engagement modalities of the Church. Building on this, Kratochvíl’s (2024) case studies of Catholicism in Brazil, the United States, India, China, and the Democratic Republic of Congo reveal that its developmental trajectories are inextricably linked to national, regional, and global politics. As such, these dynamics cannot be interpreted solely through a top-down lens of Catholic geopolitics but require an integrated analysis of spatio-temporal configurations across global, regional, and local scales. In summary, post-WWII global Catholicism has witnessed a spatial realignment of its center of gravity from the Global North to the Global South, undergone continuous transformation and adaptation since the Second Vatican Council, and now confronts diversified developmental trajectories and challenges across different regions.

In recent years, the integration of digital humanities and spatial quantitative methods in religious studies has deepened, introducing novel research perspectives and analytical paradigms. Cantwell and Petersen (2021) systematically explored the applications of digital technologies in religious scholarship, presenting cases in text mining, image analysis, and spatial modeling while emphasizing the necessity of collaboration between digital humanists and religious studies scholars. For textual analysis, methods such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation and self-organizing maps have been increasingly employed to interpret religious texts (McDonald 2014; Stamou et al. 2025). In spatial and network analysis, Cunningham (2013) utilized GIS to examine the spatial distribution of religious violence during the Belfast conflict, discovering significant correlations between the aggregation patterns of religious communities and conflict hotspots. Fousek et al. (2018) used social network analysis to simulate the spread of early Christianity and proposed potential transmission pathways. These studies demonstrate that digital humanities and quantitative approaches not only unveil the quantitative traits of religious phenomena but also provide new pathways for understanding their social, cultural, and historical dimensions—propelling religious studies toward a more empirical and interdisciplinary paradigm.

In summary, existing research has made notable advances but harbors critical limitations: while global/regional/national studies exist, a lack of multi-scale integrative analysis of religious development’s spatio-temporal patterns hinders understanding of nested global-local dynamics; applications of digital humanities and spatial methods remain exploratory, with model rigor and quantification precision needing improvement; and analyses of religion–society interactions insufficiently unpack how colonial legacies, political games, etc., interlink, lacking systematic empirical frameworks. In addition, some scholars have already noted that, due to differences in fertility rates, there is a risk of data-induced misdirection in the evaluation of religious development efficiency (Carney 2021). Instead of relying solely on the size or proportion of believers, is there a more reasonable indicator to measure the effectiveness of missionary undertakings? Can such effectiveness be quantified and compared across different contexts? And what are the differences in this regard in terms of temporal and spatial dimensions?

The paper explores the spatio-temporal patterns and trends of post-WWII Catholic development through a comprehensive analysis of multi-source religious data, mapping the migration trajectory of Catholicism’s developmental centroid. On this basis, we innovatively propose a Growth Efficiency Index (GEI) to identify and evaluate growth efficiency and types, thereby providing a comprehensive characterization of the growth trends and developmental efficiency of global Catholicism in the post-WWII era from spatio-temporal dimensions.

2. Global Catholic Development After WWII

2.1. Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Global Catholic Development

We measure the development of Catholicism after WWII from two dimensions: the scale and proportion of believers. Using the Natural Breaks (Jenks) classification method in ArcGIS, spatial visualizations were created for Catholics and percentages from 1945 to 2015, as shown in Figure 1.

2.1.1. Spatio-Temporal Pattern of the Scale of Global Catholics

Between 1945 and 2015, global Catholic believer numbers grew relatively steadily, rising from 424.87 million in 1945 to 597.83 million in 1965, then to 855.64 million in 1990 and 1098.51 million in 2015—more than doubling overall. The average annual growth rate from 1945 to 2015 was 0.96%, with minimal variation across periods, indicating a consistent growth trajectory.

Spatially, the 1945 distribution was highly uneven (Figure 1a), with over 95% of Catholics concentrated in Europe and the Americas. In the subsequent half-century, the Americas became the primary driver of growth (Figure 1b–d), while European growth stagnated (only 6.27% from 1980–2015), accompanied by declines in parish numbers and clergy. This stemmed from intensified secularization, reduced religious dependency, low fertility, and weak natural population growth. Notably, post-1960s decolonization in Africa spurred rapid growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in central and southern regions like the Congo Basin. Despite historical religious marginalization, Catholic numbers there surged 238% since 1980, driven by high fertility providing demographic momentum and missionary activities catering to local spiritual and sociocultural needs. Additionally, the Philippines saw exponential growth from 15.90 million in 1945 to 82.80 million in 2015, roughly parallel to population expansion.

2.1.2. Spatio-Temporal Pattern of the Proportion of Global Catholics

Contrasting with the optimistic trend of steady growth in Catholic believer numbers since WWII, the proportional share of Catholics has experienced a slow downward trajectory—worrisomely, with signs of accelerating decline. In late 1945, Catholics constituted 18.08% of the global population, remaining relatively stable for two decades. However, starting in 1965, the proportion began declining by 0.33% annually, reaching a historical low of 15.02% in 2015. This downward trend forms a “scissors effect” with overall believer growth (Figure 2a), indicating that post-WWII population explosions in Asia/Africa and rapid aging in traditional European/North American strongholds have challenged Catholicism’s global influence.

The bump chart analysis (Figure 2b) reveals significant restructuring of the global religious landscape over the post-WWII half-century, characterized by Islam’s rise and the relative decline of traditional Christian dominance. In 1945, the religious hierarchy was ranked as Catholicism, Islam, Hinduism, Protestantism, Buddhism, Eastern Orthodoxy, and Judaism; by 1975, this shifted to Islam in first place, Catholicism second, Hinduism third, Buddhism fourth, and Protestantism fifth, with Eastern Orthodoxy and Judaism unchanged. This realignment fundamentally reflects the interplay of global demographic dynamics and regional development disparities: Islam’s ascendancy stems primarily from population expansion driven by high fertility rates, with sustained growth momentum in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia fueled by youth demographic advantages and missionary vitality. Catholicism’s relative decline, conversely, is inextricably linked to secularization waves and low fertility crises in Europe, where shrinking population shares directly led to its displacement by Islam. In sum, religious hierarchy shifts represent a microcosm of the global center of gravity shift from developed to developing regions. Fertility differentials, migratory flows, and ideological transformations collectively shape this dynamic landscape, with Islam and Hinduism likely to sustain growth inertia via demographic dividends, while Catholicism faces the dual challenges of secularization and territorial restructuring.

2.2. Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Global Catholic Development

Using the Natural Breaks (Jenks) classification in ArcGIS, spatial visualizations were created for Catholic believer counts and population percentages across three periods: 1945–1965, 1965–1990, and 1990–2015, to identify spatio-temporal heterogeneity in global Catholic growth, as shown in Figure 3.

2.2.1. Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Scale of Global Catholics

In terms of Catholic believer population changes, post-WWII growth exhibited a pronounced pattern of western regions outpacing eastern ones, with the Americas and Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the most rapid expansion (Figure 3). From 1945 to 1965, growth was concentrated in the Americas, particularly in Latin American countries like Brazil and Mexico. The core drivers of Latin America’s rapid growth in the two post-war decades included its Catholic tradition, combined with structural factors such as plummeting mortality rates, sustained high fertility, and international migration. Unlike Latin America, growth in Europe and the U.S. stemmed primarily from post-WWII population rebounds in warring nations. The post-war baby boom saw the U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) peak at 3.77 in 1957 (Hobbs 2002), with Catholic families having significantly higher fertility than Protestant groups (Hobbs 2002). Bound by Vatican doctrinal constraints against contraception (1930 Casti Connubii encyclical), Catholic families had 0.5–1 more children on average than Protestant families. From 1945 to 1965, Catholic women averaged 4.2 children per capita, coupled with improved survival rates as infant mortality dropped from 32‰ to 23‰, forming the mainstay of natural growth (Betta 2018). As a former Spanish colony, the Philippines saw its Catholic population surge from ~15.89 million to 26.63 million (a 67.6% increase) in the post-war 20 years amid post-independence fertility explosions, becoming Asia’s major Catholic-majority nation and sustaining high growth for the next half-century. From 1965 to 1990, growth remained concentrated in the Americas, while Sub-Saharan Africa—with former colonies gaining independence—began experiencing significant Catholic population growth, which would replace the Americas as the primary engine of global Catholic expansion in the subsequent period.

2.2.2. Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Proportion of Global Catholicism

Unlike believer counts that often grow in tandem with total population, religious proportional shares more accurately reflect missionary effectiveness. Contrasting with the overall growth in Catholic numbers, the proportional share—shaped by post-WWII secularization deepenings and religious pluralism shocks—exhibits a complex pattern of decline and growth with pronounced spatio-temporal heterogeneity (Figure 3). Globally, Catholic proportional shares have declined in traditional strongholds like Europe and America while rising rapidly in emerging mission fields of Asia and Africa.

The most significant proportional gains occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Equatorial Guinea, Burundi, and Angola. Unlike endogenous growth in the U.S. or the Philippines, this region demonstrates a hybrid model of colonial legacy and indigenization. Colonial powers delegated administrative functions to the Catholic Church during decolonization (Prunier 2009): Belgium authorized church participation in local leadership selection via the 1952 Chieftain Appointment Ordinance in Burundi; Portugal transferred public school administration to the church under the 1955 Overseas Provinces Education Law in Angola (churches managed 68% of national schools by 1960); Spain established church-led “Indigenous Affairs Councils” for grassroots governance in Equatorial Guinea in 1948. Such institutional arrangements made the church a stabilizing force from the late colonial to early independent periods. Concurrently, newly independent states actively sought church support: post-1960, the DRC government established a “Joint Social Services Committee” with the church, which operated 75% of national hospitals and 50% of primary schools, enshrined in the 1964 constitution as “strategic partners in national development” (Maxwell 2022). This church-state collaboration expanded ecclesiastical influence, with demographic data showing most new converts were active adoptees—a response to weakened traditional belief systems during social transitions. Equatorial Guinea’s Catholic proportion surged from 29.54% in 1945 to 82.03% in 2015, a trajectory linked to colonial legacies, indigenization policies, and historical public service provisions (Foster 2019).

Conversely, Latin America—a traditional Catholic heartland—experienced gradual proportional decline (regional average fell from 86.81% in 1945 to 67.39% in 2015; the Guatemala from 97.48% to 45.91%, Brazil from 90.19% to 57.84%), driven by urbanization, Protestant growth, secular state reforms, and internal church crises. 1950–1965 saw Latin America’s urban population jump from 41.4% to 57% (United Nations 1988), eroding rural parish networks while Protestantism (especially Pentecostalism) expanded rapidly in slums via U.S. missionary capital and localization strategies, diverting large numbers of lower-class Catholics (Gooren 2010). Brazil’s Pentecostal population reached 30.66 million in 2015—282-fold growth since 1945. Post-war secularization reforms also weakened church privileges: Uruguay abolished religious curricula in public schools in 1952, Chile ended church land tax exemptions in 1965, eliminating resource monopolies. More crucially, internal schisms arose from 1960s liberation theology, dividing conservatives and radicals (Gooren 2002), while birth control debates alienated modern women. Concomitant demographic shifts—youth populations rose to 45% (United Nations Population Division 2003), secondary education enrollment increased from 11% in 1945 to 34% (UNESCO 1998) in 1965—fueled secular tendencies, creating an irreversible trend of slow but steady proportional decline.

2.3. Trends of the Global Development of Catholicism

Given that the gravity migration model (GMM) and standard deviational ellipse (SDE) analysis can intuitively reflect the macro-trends and characteristics of geographic elements’ spatial patterns, this study employed the weighted standard deviational ellipse method. Based on the spatial locations of countries/regions from 1945 to 2015, with the proportional share of Catholic believers in corresponding years as weights, the SDE for spatial distributions of variables was determined. Parameters were calculated and spatially visualized using the ArcGIS Spatial Statistics module, yielding the gravity centers, migration trajectories, and SDE parameters of global Catholicism from 1945 to 2015. The standard deviations of major/minor axes, central point positions, and specific movements reflected the spatial distribution characteristics and pattern changes in Catholic development after WWII, as shown in Figure 4 and

Table 1. Evolution of the center of gravity and standard deviation elliptic parameters of global Catholics after WWII.

Year	Longitude Coordinate (°W)	Latitude Coordinate (°N)	Direction	Moving Distance (km)	X-Axis Standard Deviation (km)	Y-Axis Standard Deviation (km)	Angle θ (°)
1945	15.89	27.63	—	—	83.28	36.14	81.89
1950	17.66	26.65	Southwest	201.94	83.88	36.50	82.31
1955	19.19	25.58	Southwest	187.27	85.32	37.10	83.34
1960	20.31	24.49	Southwest	156.01	87.05	37.53	84.46
1965	21.21	23.38	Southwest	142.79	87.96	37.76	85.07
1970	22.12	22.18	Southwest	150.77	88.62	37.89	85.67
1975	22.07	21.13	Southeast	104.95	90.14	37.79	86.26
1980	21.99	20.08	Southeast	105.88	91.57	37.61	86.78
1985	21.34	19.04	Southeast	122.06	93.04	37.44	87.27
1990	20.57	18.27	Southeast	108.65	94.46	37.35	87.50
1995	20.24	17.58	Southeast	77.28	94.80	36.87	88.38
2000	19.13	16.94	Southeast	128.03	96.38	36.48	88.84
2005	18.26	16.47	Southeast	99.09	97.36	36.06	89.24
2010	17.16	16.04	Southeast	118.22	98.27	35.61	89.68
2015	16.00	15.58	Southeast	124.23	99.53	35.19	90.06

.

The gravity center evolution and SDE parameters reveal that the major axis represents the core-periphery structure of dispersal along the primary trend, while the minor axis reflects dispersal along the secondary trend. In this study, the major axis denotes the distribution direction of Catholic populations, and the minor axis signifies their spatial extent; a smaller major–minor axis ratio indicates stronger spatial concentration, whereas a larger ratio implies diffuse distribution with indistinct directional trends.

As shown in Figure 4, the post-WWII global Catholic gravity center migrated between 15.58–27.63° N and 15.89–22.07° W, following a distinct trajectory: southwestward movement first, then southeastward. Starting near the Canary Islands in the eastern Atlantic in 1945, the center advanced southwestward at 33.55 km/year until 1975, then shifted southeastward at 24.71 km/year toward the African continent, arriving at northern Senegal along the southern Sahara by 2015. This trajectory aligns with earlier analyses: Latin America drove early growth, later supplanted by Sub-Saharan Africa. Contrasting with Catholic migration, the global population gravity center remained near the Persian Gulf, following a divergent path: westward from the Iranian Plateau across the Zagros Mountains, southeastward along the ridge, then westward again into Saudi Arabia by 1990.

SDE results highlight stark contrasts with stable global population distributions. Catholic SDE exhibited pronounced volatility, shifting from a northeast–southwest to an east–west orientation. The X-axis standard deviation increased significantly from 83.28 km (1945) to 99.53 km (2015), indicating stronger east-west expansion than north–south. The Y-axis showed modest, fluctuating changes: rising from 36.14 km (1945) to 37.89 km (1975), then declining to 35.19 km (2015), suggesting post-1970s influence shrinkage. The rotation angle θ remained stable (81.89–90.06°), with a gradual southward tilt post-1965, signaling accelerating spatial reconfiguration.

In sum, gravity center and SDE analyses corroborate earlier spatio-temporal findings, illustrating Catholicism’s post-WWII restructuring from a European core to diverse Afro-Asian-Latin American hubs. These methods provide intuitive, empirical evidence for long-term religious geographic transformations.

3. The Efficiency and Types of Global Catholic Development

3.1. Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Global Growth Efficiency of Catholicism

The post-WWII era witnessed a half-century global population boom, making traditional metrics of Catholic growth—such as absolute believer counts or proportional shares—insufficient for capturing regional disparities and population growth impacts. To accurately characterize the evangelization effectiveness of global Catholicism, this study innovatively introduces a Growth Efficiency Index (GEI) to identify growth efficiency and typologies. By quantifying the difference between a country’s annual Catholic growth rate and its total population growth rate—i.e., whether Catholic growth “outpaces” total population growth—GEI scientifically assesses developmental effectiveness across regions and time periods, as shown in

Table 2. Changes in the global Catholic GEI after WWII.

Regions	Indicators	1945–1965	1965–1990	1990–2015	1945–2015
Global	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	147	102	92	167
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	74	119	129	54
	Average GEI	0.045	0.075	0.016	0.029
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.183	0.674	0.093	0.194
Europe	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	23	19	17	31
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	26	30	32	18
	Average GEI	0.006	0.005	0.007	0.002
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.024	0.024	0.034	0.039
Asia	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	17	16	14	17
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	9	10	12	9
	Average GEI	0.056	0.021	0.044	0.013
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.160	0.043	0.123	0.221
Arab and North Africa	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	12	6	9	11
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	11	17	14	12
	Average GEI	0.145	0.642	0.083	0.062
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.511	2.038	0.234	0.538
Sub Saharan Africa	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	45	38	30	46
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	7	14	22	6
	Average GEI	0.075	0.018	0.011	0.065
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.100	0.050	0.037	0.095
Latin America	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	11	2	2	19
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	11	20	20	3
	Average GEI	0.001	−0.006	−0.009	0.009
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.008	0.007	0.009	0.012
North America	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	22	9	9	28
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	8	21	21	2
	Average GEI	0.016	0.007	−0.007	0.022
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.033	0.052	0.016	0.029
Oceania	Number of countries with a GEI > 0	17	12	11	15
	Number of countries with a GEI < 0	2	7	8	4
	Average GEI	0.025	0.005	0.002	0.023
	Standard deviation of GEI	0.039	0.013	0.009	0.037

.

Over the post-WWII 70-year period, Catholics outpaced total population growth in 75.57 percent of countries, though with minimal differential, exhibiting an overall low-speed growth trend. The full-period GEI stood at 0.029 with a standard deviation of 0.194, outlining a weakly positive baseline for global Catholic development. Initially, 147 countries showed positive GEI—significantly outnumbering negative cases—indicating broad positive coverage of Catholic development efficiency in the early post-war era. However, the mean GEI of 0.046 and standard deviation of 0.183 revealed significant regional disparities in development efficiency despite the overall positive trend, reflecting divergent Catholic development bases and dynamics across nations due to colonial legacies and varying post-war reconstruction progress during the global order realignment. From 1965 to 1990, positive GEI countries dropped to 102 while negative cases rose to 119, though the mean GEI surged to 0.216 and standard deviation spiked to 2.202. Deepened Cold War confrontations and pluralistic ideologies shocked traditional religions: Catholic development efficiency soared in regions like Latin America due to social transformations (e.g., liberation theology movements), while turning negative in secularizing Europe and North America, intensifying global efficiency volatility amid drastic polarization. After the 1990s, positive GEI countries further declined to 92 (negative = 129), with mean GEI retreating to 0.016 and standard deviation narrowing to 0.092. Globalization complicated religious exchange and competition: Catholicism expanded in some emerging economies via social needs, while traditional cores stagnated under secular inertia, yielding weak efficiency equilibrium with reduced dispersion but insufficient positive momentum. Overall, developmental efficiency followed a trajectory of “broad weak positivity—drastic polarization—weak equilibrium” across post-war phases, driven by international order and ideological evolutions, with geopolitics and socio-culture shaping the spatio-temporal laws of religious development efficiency.

At the regional level, Europe has seen a weakening of religious practices for years due to deepening secularization and population aging. From 1945 to 1965, the number of European countries with positive and negative GEI values was roughly equal. After 1945, socialist states in Eastern Europe promoted the separation of church and state, suppress ing the political role of churches (Dunlop 1982; Pushkarev 1989). While Western Europe maintained religious freedom, the germination of secularization and the welfare system replacing the social functions of religion slowed the development efficiency of Catholicism. Thereafter, Western Europe was impacted by theological innovations after the Vatican II Council, leading to the loosening of traditional doctrinal authority. Coupled with deepening secularization and Protestant competition, the influence of churches declined rapidly, with the participation of believers in countries like Germany and France significantly decreasing (Thériault 2004; Cuchet 2018). The development efficiency of Catholicism gradually slipped from the weak balance in the early post-war period into decline. After the fall of communism, the number of European countries with positive GEI values dropped markedly, with an average GEI of 0.007, solidifying the downward trend. Although churches regained partial freedom, population aging and the shock of religious pluralism brought by immigration waves made it difficult to find momentum for the development of traditional Catholicism.

Asia exhibits a “pluralistic fluctuation” pattern. From 1945 to 1965, countries with GEI > 0 (17) outnumbered those with GEI < 0 (9), with an average GEI (0.056) and standard deviation (0.160) indicating a “weak positive, high dispersion” trend—largely attributed to Asia’s vast territory and diverse colonial legacies. For instance, Catholicism constitutes over 80% of the Philippines’ population, fostering efficient growth, while in India, it struggles under the dominance of Hinduism (Casanova 2023). From 1965 to 1990, the number of countries with GEI > 0 (16) approached those with GEI < 0 (10), and the average GEI narrowed to 0.021, reflecting constraints from Asia’s robust indigenous religious ecologies (e.g., Islam, Buddhism). Since the 1990s, GEI > 0 countries (14) surpassed GEI < 0 (12), with average GEI rebounding to 0.044, linked to transnational missionary work and evolving social needs in the globalized era. Asia’s trajectory highlights how religious ecological complexity persistently influences development efficiency, underscoring that Catholicism must embed itself in local cultures to overcome growth bottlenecks.

Like Asia, Catholic development in Arab and North African regions has long been constrained by indigenous religious ecologies. From 1945 to 1965, GEI > 0 (12) and GEI < 0 (11) countries were nearly balanced, with an average GEI (0.145) and standard deviation (0.511) reflecting “weak positivity with high dispersion”—supported by pluralistic states like Lebanon. Between 1965 and 2015, GEI > 0 countries (6–9) consistently trailed GEI < 0 (14–17), with average GEI fluctuating between 0.062 and −0.642, driven by the Islamic resurgence movement reinforcing religious identity and geopolitical conflicts. The region’s dilemma stems from the superimposition of religious identity and geopolitical strife: Catholicism remains circumscribed by Islamic cultural dominance, with limited short-term prospects for breakthrough. Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as a core Catholic growth zone, leveraging colonial missionary legacies and social service demands. From 1945 to 2015, GEI > 0 countries consistently dominated, with stable positive development efficiency. During post-war independence movements, Catholic churches filled social service gaps through education and healthcare—e.g., Nigerian church schools adapted to rural needs via localized teaching and hiring indigenous educators (Kanu 2023). Colonial-era religious identity also positioned Catholicism as a social integration tool. Persistent social underdevelopment and shortages in education/healthcare resources further amplify the Church’s functional value, sustaining its growth advantage relative to other regions.

North America’s GEI dynamics reflect a tug-of-war between immigration-driven growth and secularization. From 1945 to 1965, GEI > 0 (22) far exceeded GEI < 0 (8), with low average GEI (0.016) and standard deviation (0.033), fueled by Latino immigration—e.g., post-war U.S. absorption of Latinx migrants forming Spanish-speaking communities in the South (Gutiérrez 1995). After the 1960s, GEI > 0 countries (9) fell below GEI < 0 (21), with average GEI turning negative (−0.007), linked to societal secularization and Protestant innovations. Globally, techno-rationalism and Pentecostal movements (Jenkins 2002; Putnam and Campbell 2010) have eroded Catholic appeal, though North America’s full-period data (28 GEI > 0 vs. 2 GEI < 0) reveals religious resilience via Latin American Catholic inheritance, which partially mitigates secularization—though long-term growth remains constrained by social ideological tides.

Latin America has faced dual shocks from liberation theology and Protestant competition. From 1945 to 1965, GEI > 0 (11) and GEI < 0 (11) were balanced, with the average GEI (0.001) reflecting Catholic traditions. Between 1965 and 2015, GEI > 0 countries collapsed to 2, dwarfed by GEI < 0 (20), as liberation theology undermined Church authority—e.g., Nicaragua’s Church proclaimed “Dios ama al pueblo nicaragüense, pero no ama al dictador (God loves the people of Nicaragua, but not dictators)”, engaging in revolutionary land reform and literacy campaigns. By the 1980s, Protestant evangelicals surged via grassroots-oriented, ritual-simplified strategies. While full-period data show GEI > 0 (19) surpassing GEI < 0 (3), prolonged negative efficiency signals religious market failure, urging Catholicism to revitalize through doctrinal indigenization and service innovation.

Oceania, as a former colonial bloc, exhibits “decline of colonial religious heritage”. From 1945 to 1965, GEI > 0 (17) far outnumbered GEI < 0 (2), with low average GEI (0.025) and standard deviation (0.039), anchored in colonial Catholic legacies. From 1965 to 2015, GEI > 0 remained higher than GEI < 0, but the gap between the two gradually narrowed. During the same period, the average GEI (0.002–0.005) gradually approached zero. Under the wave of globalization, indigenous religions in Oceania have experienced a revival, exemplified by the resurgence of traditional Māori religion. Meanwhile, Asian immigrants introduced Buddhism and Islam, with the influx of diverse cultures exerting a squeezing effect on Catholicism. This decline reflects tensions between colonial religious inheritances and indigenous cultural awakening, demanding that the Church reconstruct adaptability to multicultural contexts.

In summary, post-WWII Catholic development efficiency displays marked regional divergence, shaped by intersecting factors: colonial legacies, social needs, religious ecologies, and geopolitics. Sub-Saharan Africa thrives as a core growth zone via “colonial heritage + social service demands”; Europe and Latin America sink into long-term decline due to “secularization + new religious competition”; Asia and North America fluctuate amid “pluralistic religious ecologies + immigration/secularization dynamics”; Arab-North Africa and Oceania are constrained by “religious identity conflicts + decaying colonial heritage”. This pattern reveals that religious development efficiency is deeply intertwined with regional social transformations. To transcend geopolitical and cultural barriers, Catholicism must align with local social needs and balance religious ecologies.

3.2. Identification of Global Catholic Growth Types

Based on the dynamic characteristics of GEI across multiple periods (1945–1965, 1965–1990, 1990–2015), we can identify the efficiency patterns of Catholic expansion through differences in efficiency trends. GEI analysis reveals significant divergences in developmental efficiency across regions in post-war periods—some regions sustained long-term positive and high-efficiency growth, others fell into persistent decline, while others exhibited fluctuating characteristics with temporal changes. Accordingly, guided by the temporal variation logic of GEI and centered on “the relative relationship between Catholic growth and total population growth,” we categorize the world into four growth types: “Continuous Decline” where Catholic growth lagged behind national population growth in all study periods (i.e., GEI consistently trailed the population growth benchmark); “Continuous Growth” where Catholic growth consistently exceeded population growth with stable positive efficiency; “Fluctuating Growth” with no obvious long-term trend and growth periods dominating amid alternating growth and decline; and “Fluctuating Decline” with decline periods dominating amid alternating trends. This classificatory logic naturally translates the multidimensional data variations of GEI into an identification framework for long-term developmental patterns, which can be further linked to spatial pattern diagrams (Figure 5) to analyze the regional characteristics and driving mechanisms of the four types.

“Continuous Growth” regions are primarily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and select Asian countries, echoing GEI’s long-term high positive efficiency. As a typical “Continuous Growth” region, Sub-Saharan Africa’s development is rooted in the continuity of colonial missionary networks and deep adaptation to social development needs. During the colonial era, powers like Portugal, France, and Belgium constructed a vast religious network across Africa through a “mission station-colony” binding model (Kalu 2007). After WWII, despite political independence, African nations faced acute shortages in education and healthcare: literacy rates remained below 20% (UNESCO 1965), and medical facility coverage stood at only 15% (WHO 1964) in the early post-independence period. Leveraging organizational resources accumulated during colonial times, Catholic churches rapidly filled social service gaps. In Nigeria, churches operated over 5000 schools, covering 40% of rural education (Falola and Heaton 2008), while the church healthcare system in the Democratic Republic of Congo provided 30% of the nation’s medical services (Young 1994). This “service-for-identity” strategy deeply embedded Catholicism in Africa’s social critical needs, forming a stable developmental foundation. Meanwhile, population structure further reinforced growth momentum: Africa’s natural population growth rate long remained at 2.5–3%, with Catholic communities maintaining high fertility rates (e.g., 6.2 children on average per Catholic family in Congo), significantly exceeding population growth benchmarks (Bongaarts and Casterline 2013). Additionally, churches reduced transmission resistance by integrating tribal rituals into the Mass through indigenization reforms, gradually defusing antagonism between indigenous religions and Catholicism. The superposition of multiple factors has enabled African Catholic growth to consistently outpace population growth, making it the core engine of “Continuous Growth”.

“Fluctuating Growth” regions primarily cover North America and select Asian countries, aligning with GEI’s “weak positive, fluctuating” characteristics. From post-WWII to the late 20th century, the scale of Hispanic immigration in the U.S. expanded continuously, surging from 14 million in 1980 to 60 million in 2020, 70% of whom were Catholics. Religious practices within immigrant communities injected new vitality into Catholicism, driving periodic growth in adherent numbers (Vespa et al. 2018). Meanwhile, churches enhanced cohesion by establishing bilingual parishes and conducting community services, significantly boosting growth efficiency in certain periods. However, secularization trends in native society persistently eroded religious influence. The spread of techno-rationalism and the perfection of welfare systems gradually replaced religion’s function in social services. Religious identity among young groups accelerated attrition, with the proportion of 18–29-year-olds with no religious affiliation soaring from 8% in 1990 to 38% in 2020. Additionally, emerging denominations like Protestant evangelicals and Pentecostals further intensified developmental fluctuations by diverting Catholic followers through flexible missionary strategies. This cycle of “immigration-driven growth-secularization and competition-induced decline” gives rise to the distinct “Fluctuating Growth” pattern in North American Catholicism. Asia’s “Fluctuating Growth” is typified by former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. During the Soviet rule, Catholicism faced systematic repression under the state atheism policy in Central Asia, forcing religious activities underground and creating a faith gap lasting nearly half a century (Collins 2023). After the five Central Asian nations gained independence in 1991, brief liberalization of religious policies presented a recovery opportunity for Catholicism. International Catholic organizations provided financial and human support to rebuild churches and restore the clerical system, leading to a rise in Catholic numbers and positive GEI fluctuations. However, since the 2000s, Central Asian countries have gradually tightened religious policies to safeguard national security and cultural traditions, imposing strict restrictions on religious group registration, inflows of overseas funds, and missionary activities (Yemelianova 2022), drastically compressing Catholic development space and causing GEI to decline. Meanwhile, the Islamic resurgence in Central Asia exerted strong cultural gravitation, with the number of newly built mosques surging and Islamic cultural education widely popularized, further squeezing Catholic missionary space (Collins 2023). Against this backdrop, Catholicism sought breakthroughs through indigenization strategies—such as conducting bilingual Masses, integrating local cultural elements, and focusing on weak areas of social services—moderating the development downturn to some extent (Amsler et al. 2020) and prompting a slight GEI rebound after 2010. Overall, Central Asian Catholic development remains constrained by fluctuating external policy environments, internal cultural adaptation dilemmas, and geopolitical power games, exhibiting a distinct “policy-driven, exogenous, superficial” fluctuating growth pattern that profoundly reflects the survival logic and adaptation mechanisms of religious minorities caught between secular authoritarianism and religious majorities.

“Fluctuating Decline” regions are sporadically distributed in Europe, Oceania, and western South America, linked to GEI’s “divergence-decline” trajectory, typified by the UK and Australia. Post-WWII, Britain’s welfare state system and expanded public education eroded the edge of Catholic schools, with the state replacing religious social assistance—shaking its social foundation. Meanwhile, rising secularism, individualism, and the “sexual liberation” movement challenged Catholic moral norms, while consumerism diverted public attention from religion, causing a drop in congregational participation. Within the religious ecology, the Anglican long dominated, enjoying deep historical roots and official support. As a minority religion, Catholicism faced competitive pressures in resource acquisition and social influence. The Anglican Church’s close ties to political and social elites enabled it to play a key role in national ceremonies and public affairs, while Catholicism’s voice and resource allocation remained relatively constrained. Political factors also mattered: post-WWII UK governments emphasized the separation of church and state, restricting religious groups’ political participation. Though not directly repressive, religious influence in policy-making gradually waned. These converging factors caused an overall decline in Catholic numbers, with brief recoveries unable to reverse the long-term downward trend (Bullivant 2019). In Australia, post-war Irish and other European Catholic immigrants initially surged the faithful, with the church consolidating its status through education and ties to the working class. But since the late 20th century, secularization struck hard: internet-driven pluralistic values deepened youth religious alienation, with the proportion of Australians under 24 claiming no religion rising from 19% to 35% between 2001 and 2016; University of Sydney research shows individualism led Australians to abandon institutional religion. Education proved a key decline driver: Catholic schools lost enrollment due to financial pressures, with some closing as student numbers collapsed to single digits (Singleton 2019). Religiously, immigrant faiths like Islam and Buddhism grew rapidly, while Protestant sects’ flexible evangelism further siphoned Catholic followers. These trends reveal that despite periodic growth from immigration, Australian Catholicism has exhibited “Fluctuating Decline” long-term—buffeted by shifting social tides, educational crises, and religious pluralism—facing daunting challenges to expand influence and membership.

“Continuous Decline” regions center on traditional Catholic strongholds like Western Europe and Latin America, marked by long-term negative GEI efficiency. In Western Europe, sustained GEI downturns stem from multiple structural contradictions. Industrialization and urbanization accelerated secularization, with rationalist and individualist values replacing religious belief as dominant social ideologies, causing a cliff-like decline in youth religious participation: EU statistics show that among Western Europeans aged 18–30, regular religious service attendance dropped from 32% to 11% between 2001 and 2021, while the unaffiliated surged from 18% to 47%. Meanwhile, Protestant resurgence and Islamic immigration reconstructed religious ecologies, diverting Catholic followership and keeping GEI below population growth rates in critical periods (1965–1990, 1990–2015). Latin America’s persistent negative GEI fluctuations differ, rooted in structural political-religious contradictions. Historically, Catholicism functioned as a spiritual tool of colonial rule, deeply tied to Spanish and Portuguese political power—a legacy that became a liability during post-independence nation-building. Post-WWII nationalist waves and modernization movements made decolonization central: Brazil, Argentina, and others advanced church-state separation and educational secularization, legally restricting clerical political participation and reclaiming religious educational resources, directly eroding Catholic influence (Klaiber 1998). Socioeconomically, Latin America’s modernization entailed rapid social restructuring: land reform, industrialization, and urbanization displaced rural populations, rendering traditional parish-based Catholic organizations ill-suited to new spatial distributions. Widespread adoption of neoliberal policies since the 1980s exacerbated inequality, with poverty and unemployment rising—yet Catholicism’s traditional organizational models and doctrinal frameworks failed to address material hardships, weakening social mobilization. In contrast, Protestant evangelicals thrived by leveraging emotional preaching, “prosperity theology” (Vondey 2015), and community services to meet grassroots spiritual and practical needs, outcompeting Catholicism in religious markets (Stoll 1990). CLACSO data confirms this: Latin American Catholic school enrollment fell from 63% to 38% between 1960 and 2000, with religious ritual participation declining sharply, mirroring GEI’ s “Continuous Decline” trajectory.

In sum, the logic of identifying development types through multi-period GEI variations translates data characteristics into classificatory criteria. The regional distribution and driving mechanisms of the four types reflect interactions between colonial legacies, social needs, political games, and modernity shocks, providing a complete empirical chain from efficiency analysis to type identification. This highlights the complex pathways of religious development efficiency across eras and regions, deepening understandings of the dynamic spatial patterns of global Catholicism.

4. Discussion

Based on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Catholic populations post-WWII revealed in this study, the religion’s future global development presents a complex landscape of concurrent opportunities and challenges. Spatially, the ongoing shift of Catholic centers toward Africa, Asia, and Latin America is likely to persist: these regions’ youthful demographics, rapid urbanization, and emerging spiritual needs in social development provide fertile ground for Catholic propagation. However, intensified religious pluralism, revivals of indigenous faiths, and extremist ideological interference may constrain its further expansion.

Under the impact of the digital wave, the proliferation of online religious practices grants Catholicism opportunities to transcend geographical boundaries and innovate dissemination models—e.g., expanding influence via social media and organizing transnational religious activities through virtual platforms—while posing challenges such as the erosion of traditional ritual authority and difficulties in maintaining believer engagement. The Church must strike a balance between preserving core doctrinal stability and adapting to modern social values.

Practically, research indicates that Church resource allocation needs to more precisely align with regional growth efficiency disparities while investing in emerging digital religious spaces—a trajectory that will long-term influence church–state relations, regional cultural ecologies, and social integration. How to apply emerging digital tools and scientific quantitative methods to serve human welfare will become a critical topic for both academia and policymakers. Future studies could further analyze the deep mechanisms influencing Catholic development through long-term tracking and multidisciplinary cross-analysis, providing more explanatory theoretical frameworks and practical guidelines for understanding global religious landscape transformations.

5. Data Sources and Research Methods

5.1. Research Objects

The study encompasses 239 countries/regions worldwide (hereafter referred to as “countries” for conciseness), spanning a 70-year period from the end of World War II to 2015. Using late 1945 as the base period, the research timeline is partitioned into 15 phases at 5-year intervals. For continental classification, in alignment with UNDATA standards and accounting for cultural-geographical disparities, countries/regions are clustered into seven continental blocks based on relative cultural homogeneity: Europe, Asia (excluding West Asia), West Asia and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, North America and the Caribbean, Latin America, and Oceania.

5.2. Data Sources

National-level data on global Catholic populations post-WWII are sourced from the RCS-Dem dataset of the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA) (Brown and James 2018) and The World Religion Project (WRP) (Maoz and Errol 2013), co-conducted by the University of California, Davis, and Pennsylvania State University. Encompassing panel statistics on religious populations across 200+ countries/regions for nearly 200 years, the data estimate annual believer counts and proportional shares for over 100 religious denominations worldwide. Following preliminary sorting, extraction, classification, and consolidation, the data form the primary dataset for this study.

5.3. Research Methods

5.3.1. Center of Gravity Shift and Standard Deviation Ellipse Model

The movement of spatial gravity centers has been increasingly employed in studies of population and industrial structure shifts (Lin et al. 2024), as it reflects geographic distribution changes of research objects. In this study, the global Catholic gravity center is defined as the geographic point where the torque is balanced across national Catholic populations within a given period. By calculating phase-wise variations and mapping the evolutionary trajectory of this gravity center, we can unveil the expansion dynamics, trends, and quantitative patterns of global Catholicism. The Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE) is a classic spatial pattern analysis method that quantifies spatial distributions using metrics such as central point, azimuth angle, minor axis, and major axis. It objectively characterizes the global spatial distribution features of geographic elements: the ellipse boundary defines the main distribution area, the azimuth angle indicates the primary trend direction, the central point reflects the relative 2D position, and the major axis measures dispersion along the dominant trend. The formula is as follows:

$$\mathrm{Center} \mathrm{of} \mathrm{gravity}: \overline{X_w}={\displaystyle \frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i{x}_i}{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i}} \overline{Y_w}={\displaystyle \frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i{y}_i}{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i}}$$

$$\mathrm{Azimuth}: \tan \theta ={\displaystyle \frac{\left({{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i^2{\tilde{x}}_i^2-{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i^2{\tilde{y}}_i^2\right)+\sqrt{{\left({{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i^2{\tilde{x}}_i^2-{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i^2{\tilde{y}}_i^2\right)}^2+4{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i{\tilde{x}}_i^2{\tilde{y}}_i^2}}{2{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w}_i{\tilde{x}}_i^2{\tilde{y}}_i^2}}$$

$$\mathrm{X}\text{-}\mathrm{axis} \mathrm{standard} \mathrm{deviation}: {\sigma }_x=\sqrt{{\displaystyle \frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{\left(w_i{\tilde{x}}_i\cos \theta -w_i{\tilde{y}}_i\sin \theta \right)}^2}{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w_i}^2}}}$$

$$\mathrm{Y}\text{-}\mathrm{axis} \mathrm{standard} \mathrm{deviation}: {\sigma }_y=\sqrt{{\displaystyle \frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{\left(w_i{\tilde{x}}_i\sin \theta -w_i{\tilde{y}}_i\cos \theta \right)}^2}{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{w_i}^2}}}$$

In the formula, (X_i, Y_i) represents the spatial location of the research object, and w_i represents the weight. θ represents the azimuth of the ellipse, indicating the angle formed by rotating clockwise from the true north direction to the major axis of the ellipse. σ_x and σ_y, respectively, represent the standard deviations along the X-axis and the Y-axis.

5.3.2. Identification of Growth Efficiency Types

Building on the analysis of Catholic developmental trends, this study further examines the efficiency patterns of global Catholic expansion. Focusing solely on absolute believer counts or proportional growth overlooks regional disparities, particularly given significant cross-national variations in population growth (Adam 2021). To address this, we introduce a Growth Efficiency Index (GEI)—defined as the difference between the annual average growth rate of Catholic believers and that of the total population—to identify expansion efficiency types.

$$\mathrm{GEI}={\displaystyle \frac{{\mathrm{C}}_{\mathrm{t}2}-{\mathrm{C}}_{\mathrm{t}1}}{{\mathrm{C}}_{\mathrm{t}1}\times \left({\mathrm{T}}_2-{\mathrm{T}}_1\right)}}-{\displaystyle \frac{{\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{t}2}-{\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{t}1}}{{\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{t}1}\times \left({\mathrm{T}}_2-{\mathrm{T}}_1\right)}}$$

GEI denotes the Growth Efficiency Index, where C_t represents the size of Catholics in a given country and year, and P_t denotes the total population of that country in the same period. The efficiency of Catholic growth across the study period is identified by analyzing GEI variations across different phases. We classify GEI trajectories into four types based on temporal patterns: regions where Catholic growth lagged behind national population growth in all consecutive periods (1945–1965, 1965–1990, 1990–2015) are labeled “Continuous Decline,” conversely those with sustained Catholic growth exceeding population growth are termed “Continuous Growth,” and regions without clear trends are categorized as “Fluctuating Growth” or “Fluctuating Decline” based on net trends.

6. Conclusions

This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of global Catholicism from 1945 to 2015 through an integrated analysis of diocesan statistics, the World Religion Database, and UN demographic data. By employing gravity migration and standard deviational ellipse modeling, it reveals the spatial heterogeneity of Catholic expansion across different periods, identifies the migratory path of the religion’s developmental gravity center, and traces its shifting global trajectory. In addition, spatial classification techniques are used to categorize patterns of Catholic growth efficiency, enabling a comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment of Catholicism’s post-WWII development. Specifically:

(1)

Following WWII, the global Catholics exhibited a steady upward trend, though spatial distribution remained highly uneven. Inversely, the Catholic proportion of the world population followed a gradual downward trajectory, with signs of acceleration. Regionally, significant shifts in proportion were observed across continents.

(2)

Catholics growth exhibited a pronounced west-dominant, east-subordinate pattern, with the fastest increases observed in the Americas and Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the proportion of the Catholic population declined in traditional strongholds such as Europe and Latin America, while accelerating in emerging missionary regions, particularly in Asia and Africa.

(3)

The macro trend of post-WWII Catholic development has reflected a gradual southward shift of the global Catholic center, with the focus transitioning from traditional Europe to emerging missionary regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The standard deviational ellipse analysis shows a strong oscillatory pattern, with a growing rotation angle and a persistent southward tilt, which indicates an accelerating pace of spatial redistribution.

(4)

75.57% of countries have experienced faster Catholic population growth than total population growth after WWII, although the gap has remained narrow, reflecting a generally low-speed trend. The growth efficiency across phases exhibited a trajectory of “broad weak positivity—acute differentiation—weak equilibrium”. The pronounced regional heterogeneity in efficiency types reflects the complex interplay of colonial legacies, social demands, political dynamics, and modernity-induced shocks, offering a robust empirical basis for understanding the deep interconnections between religious spatial structures and broader societal transformations.