Next Article in Journal / Special Issue
Integrating Long Tide Gauge Records with Projection Modelling Outputs. A Case Study: New York
Previous Article in Journal
UK Macro-Algae Biofuels: A Strategic Management Review and Future Research Agenda
Previous Article in Special Issue
South Florida’s Encroachment of the Sea and Environmental Transformation over the 21st Century
Open AccessArticle

Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Docklands 3008, Australia
Bureau of Meteorology, 300 Elizabeth St, Darlinghurst 1300, Australia
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 33;
Received: 30 May 2017 / Revised: 22 July 2017 / Accepted: 25 July 2017 / Published: 1 August 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts and Adaptation)
A system for providing routine seven-day forecasts of sea level observable at tide gauge locations is described and evaluated. Forecast time series are aggregated from well-established operational systems of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; although following some adjustments these systems are only quasi-complimentary. Target applications are routine coastal decision processes under non-extreme conditions. The configuration aims to be relatively robust to operational realities such as version upgrades, data gaps and metadata ambiguities. Forecast skill is evaluated against hourly tide gauge observations. Characteristics of the bias correction term are demonstrated to be primarily static in time, with time varying signals showing regional coherence. This simple approach to exploiting existing complex systems can offer valuable levels of skill at a range of Australian locations. The prospect of interpolation between observation sites and exploitation of lagged-ensemble uncertainty estimates could be meaningfully pursued. Skill characteristics define a benchmark against which new operational sea level forecasting systems can be measured. More generally, an aggregation approach may prove to be optimal for routine sea level forecast services given the physically inhomogeneous processes involved and ability to incorporate ongoing improvements and extensions of source systems. View Full-Text
Keywords: forecasting; sea level; tides; Australia; operational oceanography forecasting; sea level; tides; Australia; operational oceanography
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Taylor, A.; Brassington, G.B. Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 33.

AMA Style

Taylor A, Brassington GB. Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2017; 5(3):33.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Taylor, Andy; Brassington, Gary B. 2017. "Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems" J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 5, no. 3: 33.

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

Search more from Scilit
Back to TopTop