A Machine Learning-Based Model for Predicting High Deficiency Risk Ships in Port State Control: A Case Study of the Port of Singapore

This study developed a model to predict ships with high deficiency risk under Port State Control (PSC) through machine learning techniques, particularly the Random Forest algorithm. The study utilized actual ship inspection data from the Port of Singapore, comprehensively considering various operational and safety indicators of ships, including but not limited to flag state, ship age, past deficiencies, and detention history. By analyzing these factors in depth, this research enhances the efficiency and accuracy of PSC inspections, provides decision support for port authorities, and offers strategic guidance for shipping companies to comply with international safety standards. During the research process, I first conducted detailed data preprocessing, including data cleaning and feature selection, to ensure the effectiveness of model training. Using the Random Forest algorithm, I identified key factors influencing the detention risk of ships and established a risk prediction model accordingly. The model validation results indicated that factors such as ship age, tonnage, company performance, and flag state significantly affect whether a ship exhibits a high deficiency rate. In addition, this study explored the potential and limitations of applying the Random Forest model in predicting high deficiency risk under PSC, and proposed future research directions, including further model optimization and the development of real-time prediction systems. By achieving these goals, I hope to provide valuable experience for other global shipping hubs, promote higher international maritime safety standards, and contribute to the sustainable development of the global shipping industry. This research not only highlights the importance of machine learning in the maritime domain but also demonstrates the potential of data-driven decision-making in improving ship safety management and port inspection efficiency. It is hoped that this study will inspire more maritime practitioners and researchers to explore advanced data analytics techniques to address the increasingly complex challenges of global shipping.