Digital Dividend or Digital Divide? How the Digital Economy Shapes China’s Agri-Food Trade Dynamics: Evidence on Impacts, Mechanisms, and Heterogeneity

Digital economy has profoundly reshaped the global trade landscape, yet its implications for agricultural trade, particularly in major agricultural trading countries, remain relatively underexplored. Using provincial panel data from China covering the period from 2013 to 2023, this study investigates whether digital economy development in China’s agricultural trade generates a digital dividend or instead exacerbates a digital divide. We construct a unified analytical framework and employ two-way fixed-effects models to identify the effects and underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that digital economy development significantly enhances overall agricultural trade performance. Mechanism analyses further show that this effect operates primarily through improvements in agricultural total factor productivity and the upgrading of rural human capital. Notably, the trade-enhancing effects of the digital economy exhibit pronounced regional heterogeneity. These effects are concentrated mainly in eastern and northern regions and are substantially stronger in non-grain-producing areas, while remaining statistically insignificant in central and western regions. This study contributes to the literature by providing a regionally differentiated assessment of the relationship between the digital economy and agricultural trade. It also offers policy implications for narrowing the digital divide through coordinated investments in digital infrastructure, productivity enhancement, and human capital accumulation.