Globalisation, Regionalisation, Market Integration and Price Analysis of Agricultural Products

Protectionist tensions prevalent in the world economy since the 2008 financial crisis have accompanied a period of slowing trade flows among countries, affecting the exchange of agri-food products. According to data from the World Trade Organization, the value of agricultural product exports between 2010 and 2019 registered a compound annual average growth rate of 4.73%, far below the 8.83% recorded in the 2000–2009 period [1]. Subsequently, the closure of borders and the lockdowns imposed throughout 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the invasion by Russia of Ukrainian territories since February 2022 and constant protectionist threats from the current US government administration since January 2025 have all contributed to an uncertain scenario that imperils the multilateral framework forged at Bretton Woods in the wake of the Second World War. Not without its own difficulties, that framework promoted the productive specialisation of national economies, resulting in productivity and efficiency benefits, also favouring access to food and guarantees around global food security. This monograph seeks to elucidate various issues related to the recent evolution of the international market for agricultural and agri-food products, where opposing forces have gradually converged. In contrast to factors that have long favoured market integration between national economies (such as the progressive integration of the EU-27 countries or agreements among countries in the Asia–Pacific region), certain restrictions imposed by national governments—justified by geopolitical considerations and health-related arguments—are conditioning the links between markets and available supplies at the national level, causing both shortages and price increases. Concurrent with this dynamic of change, social and cultural factors such as consumer concern for environmental protection have also gained significance.

This monograph on Agriculture, entitled “Globalisation, Regionalisation, Market Integration, and Price Analysis of Agricultural Products”, aims to contribute to a better understanding of these phenomena, shedding light on the profound transformations now taking place in the global trade of agricultural and agri-food products. The monograph comprises six articles in which the authors provide analyses of the consequences of various ongoing processes, all happening simultaneously and with diverse impacts. Recommendations are made for reconciling the interdependence of national markets with environmental protection and with the sustainability of local agri-food systems, in hopes of fostering resilience in the face of future crises.

The work by Moral-Pajares, Zozaya-Montes and Gallego-Valero [2] focuses on the effects of the EU’s process of integration of agricultural markets on the agricultural and agri-food exports of two Southern European countries, Spain and Portugal, both of which exhibit a pronounced specialisation in food production. This study confirms that the agri-food systems of these national economies have maintained strong dependency on the intra-community market, conditioning the evolution of sales and the growth of businesses due to the low dynamism of EU demand and high competition on the supply side. Nevertheless, favourable trends have been noted towards greater sophistication of these countries’ exports and towards new, more dynamic markets outside the EU, the latter being crucial to the recent evolution of agri-food exports, mainly from Spain.

In the paper “Roles of Economic Integration and Climate Distance in Agri-Food Trade: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region” [3], the authors Kong, Yamada, Wang, Li and Nie focus on the effects of integration agreements on agri-food trade flows between partners. They analyse the bilateral relationships of 19 national economies participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), introducing among their explanatory variables (in an applied gravity model) the novelty of ‘climate distance’ between member states. Based on this analysis, the authors recommend incorporating climate change-related clauses into regional and international agreements, with the aim of contributing to both economic growth and environmental protection as well as the adaptation of agri-food production systems to climate change.

The second group of works included in this monograph examines the behaviour of agricultural product prices. The article entitled “Price Volatility on the European Wheat and Corn Market in the Black Sea Agreement Context” by Kacperska, Łukasiewicz, Skrzypczyk and Stefańczyk [4] considers whether the outbreak of war significantly increased the price volatility of wheat and corn in the European market, which is highly dependent on exports from Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, from Russia. Second, this research examines whether the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed in July 2022 by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations helped to stabilise prices, both at the beginning and end of the year-long agreement. The authors conclude that the main reason for grain price volatility was prevailing uncertainty in the market, driven mostly by two factors: the outbreak of war and attempts by governments to stabilise the market through the signing of this initiative. Both factors had a greater influence on the volatility of corn prices, corresponding to Ukraine’s significant share in the global corn market.

Continuing with the analysis of price behaviour, the second article in this section—“A Multidimensional Analysis on Major Determinants of Food Inflation in Türkiye” [5]—studies the price evolution of wheat, corn, olive oil and cotton in Turkey, an economy exhibiting a high degree of integration into the global market. The work focuses on the period from 2002 to 2021, during which several crises challenged the national economy. The authors conclude that price variations in agricultural products are decisively affected by numerous factors, including government policy, regulatory quality, the costs of production inputs (including water for irrigation) and the behaviour of macroeconomic variables such as money supply, the exchange rate of the national currency and the evolution of the GDP. They find that weather conditions, including rainfall and temperature trends, were not significant, except in the case of olive oil; however, results were seen to vary depending on the type of product considered.

Regardless of the geopolitical tensions currently threatening the ongoing globalisation process in agricultural markets, certain extra-economic factors have been influencing the preferences of consumers in developed countries (and, therefore, the behaviour of demand in the global market). In the short and medium terms, these factors are expected to significantly condition supply. There is a significant growing concern among citizens for both environmental protection and the conservation of nature. Using a methodology that combines quantitative and qualitative techniques, allowing for spontaneous responses from survey participants, the authors of the paper “Environmental Concerns of Agri-Food Product Consumers: Key Factors” [6] analyse the environmental concerns of consumers in several European countries with differing levels of environmental awareness (Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom and Denmark). The results of the study indicate that the main environmental problems affecting agri-food consumers are pollution, climate-related effects and the destruction of natural areas, while the conservation of species and biodiversity also play important roles. Nonetheless, differences are observed between countries, and these findings have implications for both national agricultural policies and the agri-food sector as a whole, which may help define the priorities to be considered in the environmental domain.

The monograph concludes with a study by Gabriel Bas entitled “Globalization vs. Glocalization. Learn Lessons from Two Global Crises such as the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the COVID-19 Pandemic for the Agro-Food and Agro-Industrial Sector in Ukraine” [7]. This piece offers a review of the scientific literature between 2019 and 2024 on the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and the Russia–Ukraine conflict on supply chains, food security and logistics related to agri-food and agro-industrial production worldwide. The work’s main contribution is the proposal of ‘glocalisation’, which integrates local production practices with elements of the international market, allowing for diversification of sourcing and the reduction in risks derived from globalisation in supply systems for food and agricultural raw materials.