Cardiovascular disease is one of the most frequent causes of long-term sickness absence from work. The study aims to develop and validate a score to assess the 10-year risk of unsuitability for work accounting for the cardiovascular risk. The score can be considered as a prevention tool that would improve the cardiovascular risk assessment during health surveillance visits under the assumption that a high cardiovascular risk might also translate into high risk of unsuitability for work. A total of 11,079 Italian workers were examined, as part of their scheduled occupational health surveillance. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to derive risk equations for assessing the 10-year risk of a diagnosis of unsuitability for work. Two scores were developed: the
score (Cardiovascular Risk in Occupational Medicine) included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure (systolic and diastolic), body mass index, height, diagnosis of hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, mental disorders and prescription of antidiabetic and antihypertensive medications. The
score was the same as
score except for the inclusion of only variables statistically significant at the 0.05 level. For both scores, the expected risk of unsuitability for work was higher for workers in the highest risk class, as compared with the lowest. Moreover results showed a positive association between most of cardiovascular risk factors and the risk of unsuitability for work. The
score demonstrated better calibration than the
score (11.624 (p
-value: 0.235)). Moreover, the
score, in comparison with existing CVD risk scores, showed the best goodness of fit and discrimination.
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