Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Objective
2.2. Epidemiological Model of Influenza Transmission and Health Outcomes
2.3. Economic Assumptions
2.4. Vaccination Scenarios
2.5. Subgroup Analysis
3. Results
Costs per Age Group
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Pandemic Severity | Vaccination Scenario | Symptomatic Cases | Hospital Visits | GP Visits | Deaths |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vaccination at 3 Months | |||||
Moderate | No vaccination (antiviral only) | 88,942,473 | 717,554 | 39,607,982 | 206,487 |
High effectiveness vaccine | 17,940,821 | 91,206 | 6,935,595 | 9634 | |
Moderate effectiveness vaccine | 36,025,035 | 204,249 | 14,776,717 | 32,231 | |
Low effectiveness vaccine | 66,741,092 | 490,893 | 28,380,923 | 129,199 | |
Severe | No vaccination (antiviral only) | 88,942,473 | 9,618,426 | 47,529,578 | 2,088,333 |
High effectiveness vaccine | 18,626,689 | 1,074,635 | 8,892,181 | 90,141 | |
Moderate effectiveness vaccine | 37,555,149 | 2,560,741 | 18,994,985 | 314,237 | |
Low effectiveness vaccine | 68,419,956 | 6,435,691 | 35,434,289 | 1,297,349 | |
Vaccination at 6 Months | |||||
Moderate | No vaccination (antiviral only) | 88,942,473 | 717,554 | 39,607,982 | 206,487 |
High effectiveness vaccine | 83,066,866 | 618,770 | 35,940,361 | 161,574 | |
Moderate effectiveness vaccine | 85,006,471 | 637,636 | 37,123,270 | 169,058 | |
Low effectiveness vaccine | 86,739,568 | 681,795 | 38,197,193 | 190,798 | |
Severe | No vaccination (antiviral only) | 88,942,473 | 9,618,426 | 47,529,578 | 2,088,333 |
High effectiveness vaccine | 83,457,744 | 8,226,533 | 43,467,459 | 1,627,136 | |
Moderate effectiveness vaccine | 85,411,755 | 8,494,008 | 44,901,333 | 1,703,959 | |
Low effectiveness vaccine | 87,024,741 | 9,111,149 | 46,084,171 | 1,926,968 |
Scenario | GP Costs | Hospitalization Costs | Workday Cost | Administration Costs | Antiviral Costs | Cost of Lost Productivity Due to Excess Mortality | Total Costs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vaccination at 3 Months | |||||||
No vaccination (antiviral only) | $20,599,453,279 | $28,978,034,803 | $12,604,418,645 | $19,415,048,680 | $1,118,113,040 | $33,719,406,329 | $116,434,474,776 |
High effectiveness vaccine | $2,405,596,950 | $3,406,805,683 | $2,592,480,598 | $19,415,048,680 | $209,306,610 | $4,333,698,370 | $32,362,936,891 |
Moderate effectiveness vaccine | $6,545,903,147 | $8,463,078,017 | $5,072,670,071 | $19,415,048,680 | $432,101,841 | $10,346,938,544 | $50,275,740,300 |
Low effectiveness vaccine | $13,535,209,281 | $19,520,301,978 | $9,288,304,732 | $19,415,048,680 | $835,576,668 | $23,437,642,287 | $86,032,083,626 |
Vaccination at 6 Months | |||||||
No vaccination (antiviral only) | $20,599,453,279 | $28,978,034,803 | $12,604,418,645 | $19,415,048,680 | $1,118,113,040 | $33,719,406,329 | $116,434,474,776 |
High effectiveness vaccine | $18,048,536,313 | $25,454,554,885 | $11,810,945,816 | $19,415,048,680 | $1,043,851,428 | $29,820,764,952 | $105,593,702,074 |
Moderate effectiveness vaccine | $18,832,091,464 | $26,206,934,960 | $12,049,890,261 | $19,415,048,680 | $1,068,215,875 | $30,630,414,373 | $108,202,595,613 |
Low effectiveness vaccine | $19,572,794,262 | $27,648,503,767 | $12,290,021,200 | $19,415,048,680 | $1,090,276,084 | $32,292,287,457 | $112,308,931,450 |
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Nguyen, V.H.; Crepey, P.; Williams, B.A.; Welch, V.L.; Pivette, J.M.; Jones, C.H.; True, J.M. Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States. Vaccines 2025, 13, 828. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080828
Nguyen VH, Crepey P, Williams BA, Welch VL, Pivette JM, Jones CH, True JM. Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States. Vaccines. 2025; 13(8):828. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080828
Chicago/Turabian StyleNguyen, Van Hung, Pascal Crepey, B. Adam Williams, Verna L. Welch, Jean Marie Pivette, Charles H. Jones, and Jane M. True. 2025. "Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States" Vaccines 13, no. 8: 828. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080828
APA StyleNguyen, V. H., Crepey, P., Williams, B. A., Welch, V. L., Pivette, J. M., Jones, C. H., & True, J. M. (2025). Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States. Vaccines, 13(8), 828. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080828