A Novel Approach to Estimate the Impact of PCV20 Immunization in Children by Incorporating Indirect Effects to Generate the Number Needed to Vaccinate
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Model Structure
2.2. Primary Analysis
2.3. Scenario Analyses
3. Results
3.1. Primary Analysis Results
3.2. Scenario Analysis
3.3. Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Outcome | Mean NNV (95% CI a) |
---|---|
IPD | 854.32 (773.62–952.85) |
Hospitalized pneumonia | 105.72 (98.18–114.19) |
Non-hospitalized pneumonia | 24.92 (23.18–26.87) |
Any hospitalization b | 94.08 (87.89–100.82) |
OM | 8.55 (7.80–9.37) |
Total disease c | 5.96 (5.60–6.36) |
Antibiotic-resistant cases | 7.08 (6.64–7.55) |
Antibiotic prescription | 10.67 (10.02–11.38) |
Death | 2488.07 (2290.50–2726.50) |
1-Year Time Horizon | 10-Year Time Horizon | 25-Year Time Horizon | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
With Indirect Effects | W/o Indirect Effects | <18 with Indirect Effects | With Indirect Effects | W/o Indirect Effects | <18 with Indirect Effects | With Indirect Effects | W/o Indirect Effects | <18 with Indirect Effects | |
IPD | 28,788 | 28,788 | 28,788 | 1212 | 19,180 | 11,016 | 854 | 15,726 | 9040 |
Any hospitalization a | 1534 | 1534 | 1534 | 124 | 980 | 455 | 94 | 791 | 370 |
Hospitalized pneumonia | 1620 | 1620 | 1620 | 138 | 1033 | 475 | 106 | 833 | 386 |
Non-hospitalized pneumonia | 1996 | 1996 | 1996 | 31 | 614 | 70 | 25 | 428 | 56 |
OM | 57 | 57 | 57 | 11 | 31 | 11 | 9 | 25 | 9 |
Total disease b | 53 | 53 | 53 | 7 | 29 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 7 |
Resistant cases | 63 | 63 | 63 | 9 | 34 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 9 |
Antibiotic prescriptions | 95 | 95 | 95 | 13 | 51 | 16 | 11 | 40 | 13 |
Death | 104,207 | 104,207 | 104,207 | 3666 | 92,703 | 40,974 | 2488 | 72,054 | 32,853 |
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Rozenbaum, M.H.; Tort, M.J.; Capitano, B.; Chapman, R.; Dillon-Murphy, D.; Althouse, B.M.; Cane, A. A Novel Approach to Estimate the Impact of PCV20 Immunization in Children by Incorporating Indirect Effects to Generate the Number Needed to Vaccinate. Vaccines 2025, 13, 805. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080805
Rozenbaum MH, Tort MJ, Capitano B, Chapman R, Dillon-Murphy D, Althouse BM, Cane A. A Novel Approach to Estimate the Impact of PCV20 Immunization in Children by Incorporating Indirect Effects to Generate the Number Needed to Vaccinate. Vaccines. 2025; 13(8):805. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080805
Chicago/Turabian StyleRozenbaum, Mark H., Maria J. Tort, Blair Capitano, Ruth Chapman, Desmond Dillon-Murphy, Benjamin M. Althouse, and Alejandro Cane. 2025. "A Novel Approach to Estimate the Impact of PCV20 Immunization in Children by Incorporating Indirect Effects to Generate the Number Needed to Vaccinate" Vaccines 13, no. 8: 805. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080805
APA StyleRozenbaum, M. H., Tort, M. J., Capitano, B., Chapman, R., Dillon-Murphy, D., Althouse, B. M., & Cane, A. (2025). A Novel Approach to Estimate the Impact of PCV20 Immunization in Children by Incorporating Indirect Effects to Generate the Number Needed to Vaccinate. Vaccines, 13(8), 805. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines13080805