Next Article in Journal
Using the Newmark Sliding Block Method to Construct the Empirical Model of Permanent Displacement for Earthquake-Induced Landslides in China
Next Article in Special Issue
High-Speed Running and Sprinting Thresholds in Elite Female Team Sports: A Systematic Review
Previous Article in Journal
A Comparative Study of Convolutional Neural Network and Recurrent Neural Network Models for the Analysis of Cardiac Arrest Rhythms During Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation
Previous Article in Special Issue
Improving Balance and Technical Skills of Young Alpine Skiers: Outcomes of a 10-Week Complex Dry-Land Training Program
 
 
Font Type:
Arial Georgia Verdana
Font Size:
Aa Aa Aa
Line Spacing:
Column Width:
Background:
Article

Dynamic Expected Threat (DxT) Model: Addressing the Deficit of Realism in Football Action Evaluation

by
Karim Hassani
*,
Mohammed Ramdani
and
Marwane Lotfi
Machine Intelligence Laboratory, Hassan II University, Casablanca 20360, Morocco
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(8), 4151; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15084151
Submission received: 11 March 2025 / Revised: 28 March 2025 / Accepted: 4 April 2025 / Published: 10 April 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sports Performance: Data Measurement, Analysis and Improvement)

Featured Application

The Dynamic Expected Threat (DxT) model is a novel framework developed in the context of this study to provide a more context-sensitive evaluation of football actions. It dynamically adjusts threat values based on the spatial positioning of players.

Abstract

Evaluating player actions in football is essential for understanding match dynamics and optimizing team strategies. Traditional models, such as the widely adopted Expected Threat (xT) model, assign static threat values to pitch zones without considering real-time player positioning, leading to a limited representation of the evolving tactical context. To address this limitation, we introduce the Dynamic Expected Threat (DxT) model, which adjusts threat values dynamically by integrating off-ball player positions. DxT refines the probability of shooting and ball movement using an Expected Goals (xG) model that incorporates off-ball player positioning. Built on event data from professional football matches, which encompasses over 335,000 actions, our results demonstrate that DxT significantly improves upon traditional xT models by offering a more accurate and dynamic evaluation of action threats. This framework enhances tactical analysis, providing valuable insights for coaches, analysts, and scouting professionals seeking a more realistic approach to performance evaluation.
Keywords: football analytics; expected goals; expected threat; decision-making evaluation; tactical threat football analytics; expected goals; expected threat; decision-making evaluation; tactical threat

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Hassani, K.; Ramdani, M.; Lotfi, M. Dynamic Expected Threat (DxT) Model: Addressing the Deficit of Realism in Football Action Evaluation. Appl. Sci. 2025, 15, 4151. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15084151

AMA Style

Hassani K, Ramdani M, Lotfi M. Dynamic Expected Threat (DxT) Model: Addressing the Deficit of Realism in Football Action Evaluation. Applied Sciences. 2025; 15(8):4151. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15084151

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hassani, Karim, Mohammed Ramdani, and Marwane Lotfi. 2025. "Dynamic Expected Threat (DxT) Model: Addressing the Deficit of Realism in Football Action Evaluation" Applied Sciences 15, no. 8: 4151. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15084151

APA Style

Hassani, K., Ramdani, M., & Lotfi, M. (2025). Dynamic Expected Threat (DxT) Model: Addressing the Deficit of Realism in Football Action Evaluation. Applied Sciences, 15(8), 4151. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15084151

Note that from the first issue of 2016, this journal uses article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Back to TopTop