Risk-Based Analysis of Manufacturing Lead Time in Production Lines

The paper proposes a method for assessing production risks related to potential exceedances of the agreed production lead time for batches of details in small and medium-sized enterprises. The study focuses on a linear production system composed of sequential technological operations, analyzed within the broader context of production and logistics processes. A stochastic model of the production flow has been developed, using dimensionless parameters to describe the state and trajectory of a product in a multidimensional technological space. The internal and external risk factors that affect the duration of operations are taken into account, including equipment failures, delays in material deliveries and labor availability. Analytical expressions enabling the quantitative assessment of the risk of production deadline violations and the resulting losses have been derived. The proposed method was validated on a production line for manufacturing wooden single-leaf windows. The results indicate that the presence of inter-operational reserves significantly reduces the probability of exceeding production deadlines and enhances the stability of the production process under stochastic disturbances. The use of inter-operational buffers in most cases ensured a reduction in the processing time of experimental batches of products by 18–25% and simultaneously led to a reduction in the level of production risk by several times, which confirms the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its practical significance for increasing the sustainability of production systems.