Multi-Scenario Response of Ecosystem Service Value in High-Groundwater-Level Coal–Grain Overlapping Areas Under Dual Objective Constraints

Ecosystem services (ES) are a key bridge connecting natural ecosystems with human social development. The core significance of ecosystem service value (ESV) is to quantify the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being. The mining of mineral resources causes disturbance to the structure, function, and value of ecosystems. This study focuses on the high groundwater level coal–grain overlapping areas in eastern China, the mining of mineral resources has led to widespread loss of cropland and carbon sinks in the region. Considering the particularity of ecosystem evolution caused by coal mining subsidence, we developed multiple land use demand scenarios under dual objective constraints based on PIM and Markov chain, including Inertial Development (ID), Food Security (FS), Urban Expansion (UE), Ecological Restoration (ER). The PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial changes of land use and the equivalent factor method was used to calculate the changes in ESV, exploring the best path to improve the ecological benefits of the coal–grain overlapping areas. The results indicate that: (1) By 2030, the study area will add 54,249.09 ha of coal mining subsidence, mainly mild and moderate subsidence, and cropland being the most affected by subsidence among all land types. (2) In the multi-scenarios, the total ESV is ranked as follows: ecological governance scenario (CNY 51.21199 billion) > ID scenario (CNY 51.0898 billion) > food security scenario (CNY 48.4767 billion) > UE scenario (CNY 48.27157 billion). Among them, the ER scenario achieves all individual ESV gains and has the highest overall ESV. (3) Spatial analysis shows that in the ER scenario, the ESV of mining townships significantly increases and the ESV gap between other townships has decreased. However, the FS scenario and UE scenario have led to widespread degradation of ESV between various townships in eastern mountainous areas, and severe degradation of ESV in some urban townships. This study validated the accuracy and applicability of the PLUS model in medium scale and plain regions. The study has confirmed our hypothesis that reasonable land use and ecological restoration methods can achieve Pareto improvement in regional ESV, provided a holistic and local dialectical perspective for related research, and a scientific basis for the sustainable development of coal grain overlapping areas.