# The Effects of Train Passes on Dwell Time Delays in Sweden

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## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

#### 1.1. Dwell Time Delays

#### 1.2. Delay Management

#### 1.3. This Study

- 1
- Based on the historical train operation data, an overview of different types of passes in Sweden is provided, and their impacts to dwell time delays in terms of probability is assessed. With a better understanding of train passes and their effects on delays, timetabling and dispatching measures can be targeted to increase trains’ ability to pass each other without incurring delays, resulting in more punctual railway operations.
- 2
- The use of the odds ratio is proposed to aid dispatchers in making dispatching decisions based on the odds of delays due to various dispatching actions. This is a simple metric that provides clear and direct information on which the dispatching approach has the best odds of not causing delays, allowing for a comparison between the efficiency of two different actions. It can be used to assess any dispatching choice, however, in this study it was utilised to compare different types of train passes. Previous research tends to employ regression models to predict the magnitude of the delays, but few have compared the effectiveness of alternative train passes in reducing the occurrence of delays.

## 2. Train Passes and Delays

#### 2.1. Data Studied

#### 2.2. Combined Dwell Delays

## 3. Modelling with Odds Ratios and Logistic Regression

#### Logistic Regression Model

## 4. Discussion

#### 4.1. Regression Results

#### 4.2. Model Evaluation

## 5. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Institutional Review Board Statement

## Informed Consent Statement

## Data Availability Statement

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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Scheduled Operations | No Pass | Pass | |
---|---|---|---|

Actual Operations | |||

No pass | No pass | Cancelled pass | |

Pass | Unscheduled pass | Scheduled pass |

Predictor | Estimate | Odds Ratio (OR) | Confidence Interval | |
---|---|---|---|---|

Lower | Upper | |||

(Intercept) | −0.152 *** | |||

Train passes: | ||||

Cancelled pass | −2.283 *** | 0.102 | 0.098 | 0.107 |

Unscheduled pass | 0.952 *** | 2.592 | 2.479 | 2.710 |

R2 | 0.310 |

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## Share and Cite

**MDPI and ACS Style**

Tiong, K.Y.; Palmqvist, C.-W.; Olsson, N.O.E.
The Effects of Train Passes on Dwell Time Delays in Sweden. *Appl. Sci.* **2022**, *12*, 2775.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app12062775

**AMA Style**

Tiong KY, Palmqvist C-W, Olsson NOE.
The Effects of Train Passes on Dwell Time Delays in Sweden. *Applied Sciences*. 2022; 12(6):2775.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app12062775

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Tiong, Kah Yong, Carl-William Palmqvist, and Nils O. E. Olsson.
2022. "The Effects of Train Passes on Dwell Time Delays in Sweden" *Applied Sciences* 12, no. 6: 2775.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app12062775