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Grapevine Phenology in Four Portuguese Wine Regions: Modeling and Predictions

CoLAB VINES&WINES-National Collaborative Laboratory for the Portuguese Wine Sector, Associação para o Desenvolvimento da Viticultura Duriense (ADVID), Edifício Centro de Excelência da Vinha e do Vinho, Régia Douro Park, 5000-033 Vila Real, Portugal
Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
ADVID, Associação para o Desenvolvimento da Viticultura Duriense, Parque de Ciência e Tecnologia de Vila Real–Régia Douro Park, 5000-033 Vila Real, Portugal
Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária, I.P., 2565-191 Dois Portos, Portugal
CERNAS-IPV Research Centre, Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, Campus Politécnico, Repeses, 3504-510 Viseu, Portugal
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10(11), 3708;
Received: 4 May 2020 / Revised: 21 May 2020 / Accepted: 25 May 2020 / Published: 27 May 2020
Phenological models applied to grapevines are valuable tools to assist in the decision of cultural practices related to winegrowers and winemakers. The two-parameter sigmoid phenological model was used to estimate the three main phenological stages of the grapevine development, i.e., budburst, flowering, and veraison. This model was calibrated and validated with phenology data for 51 grapevine varieties distributed in four wine regions in Portugal (Lisboa, Douro, Dão, and Vinhos Verdes). Meteorological data for the selected sites were also used. Hence, 153 model calibrations (51 varieties × 3 phenological stages) and corresponding parameter estimations were carried out based on an unprecedented comprehensive and systematized dataset of phenology in Portugal. For each phenological stage, the centroid of the estimated parameters was subsequently used, and three generalized sigmoid models (GSM) were constructed (budburst: d = −0.6, e = 8.6; flowering: d = −0.6, e = 13.7; veraison: d = −0.5, e = 13.2). Centroid parameters show high performance for approximately 90% of the varieties and can thereby be used instead of variety-specific parameters. Overall, the RMSE (root-mean-squared-error) is < 7 days, while the EF (efficiency coefficient) is > 0.5. Additionally, according to other studies, the predictive capacity of the models for budburst remains lower than for flowering or veraison. Furthermore, the F-forcing parameter (thermal accumulation) was evaluated for the Lisboa wine region, where the sample size is larger, and for the varieties with model efficiency equal to or greater than 0.5. A ranking and categorization of the varieties in early, intermediate, and late varieties was subsequently undertaken on the basis of F values. These results can be used to more accurately monitor and predict grapevine phenology during a given season, thus supporting decision making in the Portuguese wine sector. View Full-Text
Keywords: grapevine; phenology modeling; sigmoid model; wine regions; Portugal grapevine; phenology modeling; sigmoid model; wine regions; Portugal
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MDPI and ACS Style

Reis, S.; Fraga, H.; Carlos, C.; Silvestre, J.; Eiras-Dias, J.; Rodrigues, P.; Santos, J.A. Grapevine Phenology in Four Portuguese Wine Regions: Modeling and Predictions. Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 3708.

AMA Style

Reis S, Fraga H, Carlos C, Silvestre J, Eiras-Dias J, Rodrigues P, Santos JA. Grapevine Phenology in Four Portuguese Wine Regions: Modeling and Predictions. Applied Sciences. 2020; 10(11):3708.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Reis, Samuel, Helder Fraga, Cristina Carlos, José Silvestre, José Eiras-Dias, Pedro Rodrigues, and João A. Santos. 2020. "Grapevine Phenology in Four Portuguese Wine Regions: Modeling and Predictions" Applied Sciences 10, no. 11: 3708.

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