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Machine Learning for Projecting Extreme Precipitation Intensity for Short Durations in a Changing Climate

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
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Geosciences 2019, 9(5), 209; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9050209
Received: 5 March 2019 / Revised: 16 April 2019 / Accepted: 4 May 2019 / Published: 9 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Prediction of Extreme Events)
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Abstract

Climate change is one of the prominent factors that causes an increased severity of extreme precipitation which, in turn, has a huge impact on drainage systems by means of flooding. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves play an essential role in designing robust drainage systems against extreme precipitation. It is important to incorporate the potential threat from climate change into the computation of IDF curves. Most existing works that have achieved this goal were based on Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analysis combined with various circulation model simulations. Inspired by recent works that used machine learning algorithms for spatial downscaling, this paper proposes an alternative method to perform projections of precipitation intensity over short durations using machine learning. The method is based on temporal downscaling, a downscaling procedure performed over the time scale instead of the spatial scale. The method is trained and validated using data from around two thousand stations in the US. Future projection of IDF curves is calculated and discussed. View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme precipitation; machine learning; downscaling; IDF curve extreme precipitation; machine learning; downscaling; IDF curve
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Hu, H.; Ayyub, B.M. Machine Learning for Projecting Extreme Precipitation Intensity for Short Durations in a Changing Climate. Geosciences 2019, 9, 209.

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