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Article

Impacts of Earthquakes on Energy Security in the Eurasian Economic Union: Resilience of the Electricity Transmission Networks in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan

1
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (ESI SB RAS), 664033 Irkutsk, Russia
2
Institute of Power Engineering, Irkutsk National Research Technical University, 664074 Irkutsk, Russia
3
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
4
Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute for Environmental Decisions (ETH), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
5
Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2019, 9(1), 54; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9010054
Received: 14 December 2018 / Revised: 9 January 2019 / Accepted: 17 January 2019 / Published: 21 January 2019
In our research, we focus on the reliability of the interconnected electricity supply system of three countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)—Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. We apply a mathematical model to evaluate the reliability of the electricity supply system under the threat of earthquakes. Earthquakes can damage elements of electricity grids and, considering the interconnectivity of electricity supply systems in the EAEU, effects in the aftermath of earthquakes can be far-reaching and even transboundary. This necessitates the development of coordinated policies and risk management strategies to deal with electricity outage risks in the EAEU. In our study, the earthquake probability is derived from seismic zone maps, while damage events are computed using maps of energy power systems. In addition, we determine which elements of the system are susceptible to failure due to an earthquake of a given magnitude. We conduct a scenario analysis of earthquakes and their impacts on the reliability of the power supply system, considering potential energy losses and threats to energy security. An analysis of the resilience of electricity transmission grids allows us to determine the critical interconnection lines in terms of exposure to earthquake risk, as well as exposure to total systemic loss. We also identify the most critical interconnection lines where power outages can lead to the destabilization of the entire power supply system. Some examples of such lines are at the border of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, where power outages can lead to serious economic costs and electricity outages. View Full-Text
Keywords: risk assessment; natural hazards; earthquake risk; energy security; reliability of power supply; Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU); integration process; common electricity market risk assessment; natural hazards; earthquake risk; energy security; reliability of power supply; Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU); integration process; common electricity market
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MDPI and ACS Style

Iakubovskii, D.; Komendantova, N.; Rovenskaya, E.; Krupenev, D.; Boyarkin, D. Impacts of Earthquakes on Energy Security in the Eurasian Economic Union: Resilience of the Electricity Transmission Networks in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Geosciences 2019, 9, 54. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9010054

AMA Style

Iakubovskii D, Komendantova N, Rovenskaya E, Krupenev D, Boyarkin D. Impacts of Earthquakes on Energy Security in the Eurasian Economic Union: Resilience of the Electricity Transmission Networks in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Geosciences. 2019; 9(1):54. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9010054

Chicago/Turabian Style

Iakubovskii, Dmitrii, Nadejda Komendantova, Elena Rovenskaya, Dmitry Krupenev, and Denis Boyarkin. 2019. "Impacts of Earthquakes on Energy Security in the Eurasian Economic Union: Resilience of the Electricity Transmission Networks in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan" Geosciences 9, no. 1: 54. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9010054

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