A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Description of the Method
2.1. Definitions and Basic Information
- Flood risk maps: these maps are required by the FD and provide all the necessary information on receptors located in flood-prone areas (affected people, land use, etc.). A value or an amount (sum, number) is associated with these receptors. For economic damages, a damage function is associated with each type of land use (see Figure 3).
- Flood hazard maps: also required by the FD these maps provide all necessary information on the hazard (grid with inundation depth and flooding areas, flood probability in form of three scenarios: frequent, medium, and extreme floods). Hence, flood probability can be also entered separately in the tool.
2.2. Receptor “Economic Activity”
2.3. Receptor “Human Health”
- Determination of all people affected (per defined area, e.g., administrative district, municipality, …) regardless of water depth or other parameters for each flood scenario in total. In addition, the number of people affected can be established for the water level classes defined by the maps or the user.
- Determination of the number of people who cannot get to safe places or be evacuated, using the approach of a state or area-specific minimal and maximal “safeguarding rate”. This is the proportion of persons per region/area that could be evacuated or put in safety in advance of a potential flood and are therefore no longer in danger. The input of the safeguarding rate is given in % of the area under consideration (e.g., at municipality level) and is provided by the relevant countries for a reference time horizon (e.g., for 1995, minimal safeguarding rate of 20%; for 2015, maximal safeguarding rate of 80%). For the other time horizons (e.g., 2005), the safeguarding rate is calculated using a specific flow chart with an associated point system that considers the weighted effect of different prevention and preparedness measures according to their significance. This means that the safeguarding rate can be increased (e.g., in 2005 compared to 1995) by measures such as awareness rising, forecasting, warning and crisis management (cf. Table 1 in Section 2.6.1). The whole calculation procedure is precisely described in the ICPR report no. 237 [7].
2.4. Receptor “Environment”
- In the first stage, the contamination potential of the plant is combined with the water level category. The greatest contamination potential and the highest water depth present the highest threat. For each plant and each flood scenario, the respective threat is determined and assigned to a qualitative scale (1 to 5).
- The second stage combines the ecological significance of a protected area with its threat.
2.5. Receptor “Cultural Heritage”
2.6. Assessment of the Influence of Mitigation Measures—Elaboration of the Indicators
2.6.1. Change of Potential Damage
- Modification of the damage functions resulting from measures (receptors: economic activity and cultural heritage), as shown in Figure 6.
- Changes in the number of people due to evacuation combined with organizational measures (receptor: human health) (see Section 2.3 and Figure 4).
- Changes in the distance (buffer) of possible consequences arising from potentially hazardous facilities (receptor: environment).
- In the case of various measures, the effect is differentiated if the area is protected/embanked or unprotected/non-embanked. In general, it is assumed that, in unprotected areas which are more frequently flooded, potential victims have more flood experience and thus the reduction effect of potential damage is greater.
- In addition to the effect of individual measures, there are interdependencies/correlations between measures that are described in a dependency matrix for both embankment and non-embankment areas. Explanation: if several measures for one area that have an impact on the receptors economic activity and cultural heritage are combined, as a rule, the effect of the measure cannot be summed up in a simple manner, as there is the possibility that the effect would exceed 100%. Secondly, it is assumed that individual measures only have an effect when supplemented or used in combination with other measures (see examples and matrix in the report no. 237 [7]). The combination of measures that have an impact on human health has also been described in Section 2.3.
2.6.2. Change of Flood Probabilities Due to Water Level Reducing Measures
3. Description of the Tool “ICPR FloRiAn”
- Module “Damage assessment”: This module consists of one tool which calculates the damage using land use data, the extension of flood areas (maps), hydraulic data (water depth), asset values and damage functions. The output of this module is used in the next two modules.
- Module “Measure summation” (this module is optional as the ICPR FloRiAn enables the calculation of flood damage or risk with or without measures): This module quantifies the impact of the different measures (which are introduced with a tool for each measure). Output is a damage reduction (on economic activity, human health, the environment, and cultural heritage) due to the implementation of measures. After the damage reduction for all measures is calculated, a “summation” tool calculates the damage due to flooding after all measures are incorporated. This tool takes into account the interaction between different measures (the sum of the effect of two tools is not equal to the sum each individual effect) (see end of Section 2.6.1). The output can be used as an input for the next module.
- Module “Risk assessment”: This module calculates the risk by combining/multiplying the damage potential (output of “damage assessment” or “measure summation”) with the flood probability.
- The main outputs of the tool are maps with the damage values (actually grids with the damage values per pixel) and tables (*.dbf files) containing aggregated data for each administrative area as defined in the input (cf. Figure 8). Running the tool for different time horizons (with different input data as well as measures) and comparing the outputs results in the information of damage or risk changes over time.
4. Application of ICPR FloRiAn to the Rhine
- When considering the risks to human health, it is apparent that measures such as safeguarding/evacuation of those potentially affected, raising awareness, flood forecasting and warning and alarm plans as well as the modification of the probability of flooding all help to mitigate the flood risk. Across the three flood scenarios, the measures can lead to an average reduction in the risk for human health of approximatively 70% to 80% (period 1995–2020) (cf. Figure 9) [8].
- When assessing cultural heritage and the environment, based on the results of experimental methods (cf. Section 2.4 and Section 2.5), the ICPR has found out that, due to the measures undertaken (for the environment: measures helping to mitigate damages of potentially polluting sites, and for cultural heritage: measures like the ones from economic activity, see below), over time, damage and risk to cultural heritage and the environment are reduced from 40% to 70% (period 1995–2020) across all damage categories and all flood scenarios (cf. Figure 10 and Figure 11) [8].
- In terms of economic activity it has been determined that the reduction by 25% before 2020 (target stated in the APF) compared to 1995 can be achieved. As in the case of the evaluation and calculation of the damage and risk for the other receptors, the ICPR has again performed a broad scale analysis. The latter showed that measures enabling water retention along the Rhine, such as the construction of flood retention areas, the relocation of dykes and measures that give more room to the river are most efficient with respect to changing the probability of flooding (cf. Section 2.6.2 and list of measures in Table 1). In addition, various other measures for prevention and preparedness, including flood forecasting, early warning systems and (pre-) crisis management have contributed to reduce the increase of damage in floodplain areas since 1995 (cf. Figure 12) [8].
5. Conclusions and Outlook
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Type of Measure | Indicator | Unit and Scale of Indicator |
---|---|---|
Prevention | ||
Spatial planning, regional planning, and land use planning | Building regulations and codes/building development plans including requirements for flood protection (flood-adapted construction) | Expanse (m2) of area (municipality or higher level) in which flood-adapted construction is regulated by building development plans [m2] and percentage (%) of the municipality area for which development plans with these types of regulations exist. |
Keeping flood prone areas open/clear (preventing the location of new or additional receptors) and adapted usage of areas | Modification of land use data (e.g., CLC data) within and outside of the flooding areas of the flood hazard map under analysis. | Modification of land use [m2] |
Flood-adapted design, construction, renovation | Measures implemented regarding flood-adapted development/building | Measures implemented/realized in the municipality (or higher level) in % |
Precautionary building/flood-proofing property for households/municipalities | Protected areas due to precautionary building/flood-proofing property and/or mobile systems | Polygon with the area (in the municipality or higher level) protected by the flood-proofing of property or mobile systems [m2] |
Precautionary building/flood-proofing property in hazardous installations (IPPC plants, SEVESO operation areas and waste water treatment plants) | Protected installations due to technical protection, precautionary building/flood-proofing property and/or mobile systems | List of installations (IPPC, SEVESO, waste water treatment plant) that are protected/not protected |
Flood-proof storage of water-polluting/hazardous substances for households/municipalities | Securing oil tanks and/or safe storage in upper floors | Number of households (as proportion of affected households in %), that have secured oil tanks or stored water polluting substances in upper storeys (per municipality or higher level) |
Flood-proof storage of water-polluting/hazardous substances for hazardous installations (IPPC plants, SEVESO operation areas and waste water treatment plants) | Securing oil tanks and/or safe storage in upper floors | List of installations (IPPC, SEVESO, waste water treatment plant) in which secured oil tanks are safeguarded or pollutants are stored in upper storeys (unit: yes/no) |
Provision of flood hazard and risk maps/establishing awareness in relation to precautionary behavior, education and preparation/preparedness for flood events | Frequency/update intervals with regard to information campaigns (incl. provision/presence of flood hazard and risk maps) | Update frequency of information campaigns (years) (in a municipality or higher level) |
Protection | ||
Retention measures | Modification of probability (ICPR Report No. 229) [22] | Modification of probability and localization (stretch of river/gauge) |
Dykes, dams, flood walls, mobile flood protection, ... | For these measures, a probability is also indicated: Percentage evolution/change in flood probability between 1995 and present day due to improvements in protection. The information whether the area is protected/diked or non-protected/non-diked is relevant for the calculations. | Localization, renewals, modification of probability due to improvements in protection (%) (per measure or on a stretch of river) |
Maintenance/renewal of technical flood protection structures | ||
Preparedness | ||
Flood information and forecast | Improvement in flood forecasting within a defined time-period | Forecast period in hours/days as well as further aspects (on a national level or for river stretches) |
Alarm and emergency response planning (incl. recovery/aftercare)/warnings for those affected/exercises/training | Presence and update frequency of alarm and emergency response plans; number of warning systems (warning methods/ways and communication means), details of civil protection/crisis management exercises including frequency | Number of systems and update frequencies (on a municipality or higher level) |
Safety/safeguarding/evacuation of (potentially) affected persons | Details of minimum and maximum safeguarding rate for those affected in a particular area | Minimum and maximum safeguarding in % on a national level or for river stretches (e.g., 70% can be evacuated, max. safeguarding rate = 70) |
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Schmid-Breton, A.; Kutschera, G.; Botterhuis, T.; The ICPR Expert Group ‘Flood Risk Analysis’ (EG HIRI). A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin. Geosciences 2018, 8, 371. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100371
Schmid-Breton A, Kutschera G, Botterhuis T, The ICPR Expert Group ‘Flood Risk Analysis’ (EG HIRI). A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin. Geosciences. 2018; 8(10):371. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100371
Chicago/Turabian StyleSchmid-Breton, Adrian, Gesa Kutschera, Ton Botterhuis, and The ICPR Expert Group ‘Flood Risk Analysis’ (EG HIRI). 2018. "A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin" Geosciences 8, no. 10: 371. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100371
APA StyleSchmid-Breton, A., Kutschera, G., Botterhuis, T., & The ICPR Expert Group ‘Flood Risk Analysis’ (EG HIRI). (2018). A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin. Geosciences, 8(10), 371. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100371