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Article

BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change

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Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USA
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Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, 2055 Mowry Road, P.O. Box 100009, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA
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Ministry for Primary Industries, P.O. Box 2526, Wellington 6146, New Zealand
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Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, P.O. Box 110180, Gainesville, FL 32611-0180, USA
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International Potato Center (CIP) and CGIAR Research Program on Roots Tubers and Bananas (RTB), P.O. Box 1558, Lima 12, Peru
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Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, 224 Frazier Rogers Hall, P.O. Box 110570, Gainesville, FL 32611-0570, USA
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Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), UMR AGIR, BP 52627, 31326 Castanet Tolosan Cedex, France
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Pathogens 2020, 9(8), 659; https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9080659
Received: 19 June 2020 / Revised: 11 August 2020 / Accepted: 12 August 2020 / Published: 15 August 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Plant Pathogens)
Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the Phytophthora infestans infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables. The model was calibrated with growth chamber data covering one infection cycle and validated with field data from Ecuador. The model provided a good fit to all data sets evaluated. There was a significant interaction between average temperature and amplitude in their effects on the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) as predicted from growth chamber data on a single infection cycle. BLIGHTSIM can be incorporated in a potato growth model to study effects of diurnal temperature range on late blight impact under climate change scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: Simulation model; SEIR model; R; relative reproductive rate; lesion growth; oscillating temperatures Simulation model; SEIR model; R; relative reproductive rate; lesion growth; oscillating temperatures
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MDPI and ACS Style

Narouei-Khandan, H.A.; Shakya, S.K.; Garrett, K.A.; Goss, E.M.; Dufault, N.S.; Andrade-Piedra, J.L.; Asseng, S.; Wallach, D.; Bruggen, A.H.C.v. BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change. Pathogens 2020, 9, 659. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9080659

AMA Style

Narouei-Khandan HA, Shakya SK, Garrett KA, Goss EM, Dufault NS, Andrade-Piedra JL, Asseng S, Wallach D, Bruggen AHCv. BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change. Pathogens. 2020; 9(8):659. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9080659

Chicago/Turabian Style

Narouei-Khandan, Hossein A., Shankar K. Shakya, Karen A. Garrett, Erica M. Goss, Nicholas S. Dufault, Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra, Senthold Asseng, Daniel Wallach, and Ariena H.C.v. Bruggen 2020. "BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change" Pathogens 9, no. 8: 659. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9080659

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