Does Environmental Change Affect Migration Especially into the EU?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Background
3. Environmental Migration Methodologies
4. Definitions of Environmental Shock Migration
5. The Relationship between Natural Disasters, Climate Change and Migration
5.1. Fast-Onset Environmental Events
5.2. Slow-Onset Events
6. Mediating Factors and Environmental Shock Migration
7. Types of Environmental Shock Migration
8. Conclusions
9. Policy Recommendations for the EU
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Abe, Takashi. 2014. Population Movement in the Tohoku Region after the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster. The Science Reports of the Tohoku University. Miyagi: Tohoku University. [Google Scholar]
- Afifi, Tamer, and Koko Warner. 2008. The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flows across Countries. United Nations University, EHS Working Paper No.5/2008. Tokyo: United Nations University. [Google Scholar]
- Alam, G. M. Monirul, Khorshed Alam, and Shahbaz Mushtaq. 2016. Influence of institutional access and social capital on adaptation decision: Empirical evidence from hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh. Ecological Economics 130: 243–51. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Alderman, Harold, and Christina Paxson. 1992. Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of the Literature on Risk and Consumption in Developing Countries. Policy Research Working Papers. Washington, DC: Agriculture and Rural Development Department, The World Bank. [Google Scholar]
- Anthoff, David, Robert J. Nicholls, Richard S. J. Tol, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis. 2006. Global and Regional Exposure to Large Rises in Sea-Level: A sensitivity Analysis. Tyndell Centre for Climate Change Research Working Papers, 96. Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. [Google Scholar]
- Armaş, Iuliana, Dragos Toma-Danila, Radu Ionescu, and Alexandru Gavriş. 2017. Vulnerability to Earthquake Hazard: Bucharest Case Study, Romania. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 8: 182–95. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Baez, Javier E., and Indhira V. Santos. 2008. On Shaky Ground: The Effects of Earthquakes on Household Income and Poverty. RPP LAC-MDGs and Poverty-02/2008. New York: RBLAC-UNDP. [Google Scholar]
- Baez, Javier E., Germán Daniel Caruso, Valerie Mueller, and Chiyu Niu. 2017. Droughts Augment Youth Migration in Northern Latin America and the Caribbean. Climatic Change 140: 423–35. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bai, Ying, and James Kai-sing Kung. 2011. Climate Shocks and Sino-nomadic Conflict. Review of Economics and Statistics 93: 970–81. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Banerjee, Soumyadeep. 2017. Understanding the Effects of Labour Migration on Vulnerability to Extreme events in Hindu Kush Himalayas: Case Studies from Upper Assam and Baoshan County. Doctoral dissertation, University of Sussex, Brighton and Hove, UK. Available online: https://hdl.handle.net/10779/uos.23444267.v1 (accessed on 13 September 2023).
- Bardsley, Douglas K., and Graeme Hugo. 2010. Migration and Climate Change: Examining Thresholds of Change to Guide Effective Adaptation Decision-Making. Population and Environment 32: 238–62. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Barrios, Salavador, Luisito Bertinelli, and Eric Strobl. 2006. Climatic Change and Rural–Urban Migration: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Urban Economics 60: 357–71. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Barrios, Salvador, Luisito Bertinelli, and Eric Strobl. 2010. Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy. The Review of Economics and Statistics 92: 350–66. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Becerra-Valbuena, Luis Guillermo, and Katrin Millock. 2021. Gendered Migration Responses to Drought in Malawi. Journal of Demographic Economics 87: 437–77. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Beck, Ulrich. 1992. Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, 1st ed. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications. 272p, ISBN 9780803983465. [Google Scholar]
- Beegle, Kathleen, Joachim De Weerdt, and Stefan Dercon. 2011. Migration and economic mobility in tanzania: Evidence from a tracking survey. The Review of Economics and Statistics 93: 1010–33. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Beine, Michel, and Christopher Parsons. 2014. Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 117: 723–67. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Beine, Michel, and Christopher Parsons. 2017. Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux. CESifo Economic Studies 63: 386–402. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Beine, Michel, and Lionel Jeusette. 2021. A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration. Journal of Demographic Economics 87: 293–344. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Berlemann, Michael, and Max Friedrich Steinhardt. 2017. Climate change, natural disasters, and migration—A survey of the empirical evidence. CESifo Economic Studies 19: 353–85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bernauer, Thomas, Tobias Bohmelt, and Vally Koubi. 2012. Environmental changes and violent conflict. Environmental Research Letters 7: 1–8. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bettini, Giovanni, Nicholas Beuret, and Ethemcan Turhan. 2021. On the Frontlines of Fear: Migration and Climate Change in the Local Context of Sardinia, Italy. ACME: An International Journal for Critical Geographies 20: 322–40. [Google Scholar]
- Black, Richard, Nigel W. Arnell, W. Neil Adger, David Thomas, and Andrew Geddes. 2013. Migration, immobility, and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environmental Science and Policy 27: 32–43. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Black, Richard, Stephen R. G. Bennett, Sandy M. Thomas, and John R. Beddington. 2011. Climate Change: Migration as adaptation. Nature 478: 447–49. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Blaikie, Piers, Terry Cannon, Ian Davis, and Ben Wisner. 2003. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters, 2nd ed. London: Routledge. [Google Scholar]
- Bohra-Mishra, Pratikshya, Michael Oppenheimer, and Solomon Hsiang. 2014. Nonlinear Permanent Migration Response to Climatic Variations but Minimal Response to Disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111: 9780–85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bonasia, Mariangela, and Oreste Napolitano. 2012. Determinants of interregional migration flows: The role of environmental factors in the italian case. The Manchester School 80: 525–44. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Borger, Scott C. 2010. Self-Selection and Liquidity Constraints in Different Migration Cost Regimes. Available online: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/news/conferences/2010/ac-remittances/borger.pdf (accessed on 13 September 2023).
- Boustan, Leah Platt, Matthew E. Kahn, and Paul W. Rhode. 2012. Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century. American Economic Review 102: 238–44. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Brammer, Hugh. 2014. Bangladesh’s dynamic coastal regions and sea-level rise. Climate Risk Management 1: 51–62. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bryan, Gharad, Shyamal Chowdhury, and Ahmed M. Mobarak. 2014. Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh. Econometrica 82: 1671–748. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Buchenrieder, Gertrud, Christina Mack, and Azibo Roland Balgah. 2017. Human Security and the Relocation of Internally Displaced Environmental Refugees in Cameroon. Refugee Survey Quarterly 36: 20–47. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Buhaug, Halvard. 2010. Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107: 16477–82. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Burke, Eleanor, Chris D. Jones, and Charles D. Koven. 2013. Estimating the Permafrost-Carbon climate response in the CMIP5 climate models using a simplified approach. Journal of Climate 26: 4897–4909. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cai, Ruohong, Shuaizhang Feng, Michael Oppenheimer, and Mariola Pytlíková. 2016. Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 79: 135–51. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cambrézy, Luc. 2001. Réfugiés et Exilés. Crise des Sociétés, Crise des Territoires. Paris: Éditions des Archives Contemporaines. 216p. [Google Scholar]
- Carvajal, Liliana, and Isabel Pereira. 2009. Climate Shocks and Human Mobility: Evidence from Nicaragua. Social Science Research Network. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Castles, Stephen. 2003. Towards a Sociology of Forced Migration and Social Transformation. Sociology 37: 13–34. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cattaneo, Cristina, and Giovanni Peri. 2016. The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures. Journal of Development Economics 122: 127–46. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cattaneo, Cristina, Giovanni Peri, and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 2015. The strength of the stronger sex. On the importance of considering the male-to-female ratio for the intensity of violent conflicts. Defence and Peace Economics 26: 69–88. [Google Scholar]
- Cattaneo, Matias D., Nicolás Idrobo, and Rocío Titiunik. 2019. A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chindarkar, Namrate. 2012. Gender and Climate Change-Induced Migration: Proposing a Framework for Analysis. Environmental Research Letters 7: 025601. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ciccone, Antonio. 2011. Economic shocks and civil conflicts: A comment. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3: 215–27. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Czaika, Mathias, and Constantin Reinprecht. 2022. Migration Drivers: Why Do People Migrate? In Introduction to Migration Studies. IMISCOE Research Series. Cham: Springer, pp. 49–82. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dallmann, Ingrid, and Katrin Millock. 2017. Climate variability and inter-state migration in India. CESifo Economic Studies 63: 560–94. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dasgupta, Susmita, Mainul Huq, Zahirul Huq Khan, Manjur Murshed Zahid Ahmed, Nandan Mukherjee, Malik Fida Khan, and Kiran Pandey. 2010. Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost. Policy Research Working Paper 5280. Washington, DC: World Bank. [Google Scholar]
- de Campos, Ricardo Safra, Martin Bell, and Elin Charles-Edwards. 2017. Collecting and analysing data on climate-related local mobility: The MISTIC Toolkit. Population, Space and Place 23: e2037. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dell, Melissa, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken. 2009. Temperature and income: Reconciling new cross-sectional and panel estimates. The American Economic Review 99: 198–204. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Demirchyan, Anahit, Haroutune K. Armenian, Yevgenya Paturyan, and Vahe Khachadourian. 2021. Predictors of Permanent Emigration in a Long-Term Cohort of Spitak Earthquake Survivors in Armenia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61: 102337. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dercon, Stefan. 2005. Insurance against Poverty. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Devkota, Rohini Prasad, Vishnu Prasad Pandey, Utsav Bhattarai, Harshana Shrestha, Shrijwal Adhikari, and Khada Nanda Dulal. 2017. Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies in Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal: A Perception-Based Analysis. Climatic Change 140: 195–208. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Di Falco, Salvatore, Mahmud Yesuf, Gunnar Kohlin, and Claudia Ringler. 2012. Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin. Environmental and Resource Economics 52: 457–78. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dillon, Andrew, Valerir Mueller, and Sheu Salau. 2011. Migratory responses to agricultural risk in northern Nigeria. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93: 1048–61. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Douglas, Mary, and Aaron Wildavsky. 1982. Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technological and Environmental Dangers, 1st ed. Berkeley: University of California Press, p. 224. Available online: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/j.ctt7zw3mr (accessed on 14 October 2023).
- Drabo, Alassane, and Linguere Mously Mbaye. 2015. Natural Disasters, Migration and Education: An Empirical Analysis in Developing Countries. Environment and Development Economics 20: 767–96. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ezra, Markos, and Gebre-Egziabher Kiros. 2001. Rural out-migration in the drought-prone areas of Ethiopia: A multilevel analysis. International Migration Review 35: 749–71. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Feng, Shuaizhang, Alan B. Krueger, and Michael Oppenheimer. 2010. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107: 14257–62. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Findley, Sally. 1994. Does Drought Increase Migration? A Study of Migration from Rural Mali during the 1983–1985 Drought. International Migration Review 28: 539–53. [Google Scholar]
- Geddes, Andrew, and Andrew Jordan. 2012. Migration as Adaptation? Exploring the Scope for Coordinating Environmental and Migration Policies in the European Union. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy 30: 1029–44. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gibbons, Sheila J. Arenstam, and Robert J. Nicholls. 2006. Island abandonment and sea-level rise: An historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA. Global Environmental Change 16: 40–47. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gignoux, Jérémie, and Marta Menéndez. 2016. Benefit in the Wake of Disaster: Long-Run Effects of Earthquakes on Welfare in Rural Indonesia. Journal of Development Economics 118: 26–44. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gil, Lara, Paraskevi Karpos, Nefeli Karpodini, Marina Rodriguez, and Sabrina Reinbacher. 2022. Climate Change and Environmental Migration Case Studies that Indicate Potential Future Movements due to Climate Events: Austria, Greece, Spain, and the United States. Available online: https://www.uvu.edu/global/docs/wim22/sdg13/sdg13-gil.pdf (accessed on 13 October 2023).
- Gray, Clark, and Erika K. Wise. 2016. Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration. Climatic Change 135: 555–68. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Gray, Clark, and Richard Bilsborrow. 2013. Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador. Demography 50: 1217–41. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gray, Clark, and Valerie Mueller. 2012. Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Development 40: 134–45. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gray, Clark, and Valerie Mueller. 2023. Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109: 6000–5. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Gröger, Andre, and Yanos Zylberberg. 2016. Internal Labor Migration as a Shock Coping Strategy: Evidence from a Typhoon. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8: 123–53. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gröschl, Jasmin Katrin, and Thomas Steinwachs. 2017. Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration? CESifo Economic Studies 63: 445–80. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gutmann, Myron P., Glenn D. Deane, Nathan Lauster, and Andres Peri. 2005. Two Population-Environment Regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990. Population and Environment 27: 191–225. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hammer, Thomas. 2004. Desertification and migration: A political ecology on environmental migration in West Africa. In Environmental Change and Its Implications for Population Migration. Edited by Jon D. Unruh, Maarten S. Krol and Nurit Kliot. London: Kluwer, pp. 231–46. [Google Scholar]
- Hassani, Amirhossein, Adisa Azapagic, and Nima Shokri. 2021. Global Predictions of Primary Soil Salinization under Changing Climate in the 21st Century. Nature Communications 12: 6663. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Henning, Karla, Ivo Steimanis, and Björn Vollan. 2022. (Climate) Migrants Welcome? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Austria. Regional Environmental Change 22: 108. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hoffmann, Roman, Anna Dimitrova, Raya Muttarak, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, and Jonas Peisker. 2020. A Meta-Analysis of Country-Level Studies on Environmental Change and Migration. Nature Climate Change 10: 904–12. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Homer-Dixon, Thomas. 1991. On the Threshold: Environmental Changes conflict. International Security 16: 76–116. [Google Scholar]
- Hornbeck, Richard. 2012. The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe. American Economic Review 102: 1477–507. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hornbeck, Richard, and Suresh Naidu. 2014. When the Levee Breaks: Black Migration and Economic Development in the American South. American Economic Review 104: 963–90. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Houghton, J. T., B. A. Callander, and S. K. Varney. 1992. Climate chan 1992—The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [Google Scholar]
- Hsiang, Solomon M., and Daiju Narita. 2012. Adaptation to cyclone risk: Evidence from the global cross-section. Climate Change Economics 3: 1250011. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hsiang, Solomon, Marshall Burke, and Edward Miguel. 2013. Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict. Science 341: 1235367. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Huang, Huan, Fan Wang, Yi Xiao, Yuan Li, Huiling Zhou, and Jing Chen. 2022. To Stay or to Move? Investigation on Residents’ Migration Intention under Frequent Secondary Disasters in Wenchuan Earthquake-Stricken Area. Frontiers in Public Health 10: 920233. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- IDMC-Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. 2014. Annual Report 2014: 2013 in a Review. Available online: https://www.internal-displacement.org/publications/annual-report-2014/ (accessed on 12 September 2023).
- IDMC-Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. 2017. Global Disaster Displacement Risk: A Baseline for Future Work. Available online: https://www.internal-displacement.org/publications/global-disaster-displacement-risk-a-baseline-for-future-work (accessed on 13 October 2023).
- IDMC Query Tool—Disaster. 2021. Global Internal Displacement Database. Available online: https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data (accessed on 11 October 2023).
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Available online: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed on 11 October 2023).
- International Organization for Migration. 2019. Annual Report. Available online: https://www.iom.int/resources/annual-report-2019 (accessed on 12 September 2023).
- Jäger, Jill, Johannes Frühmann, Sigrid Grünberger, and Andreas Vag. 2009. Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project Synthesis Report. Deliverable D.3.4 for the European Commission. Maastricht: European Commission. [Google Scholar]
- Jansen, Sylvia J. T., Joris S. C. M. Hoekstra, and Harry J. F. M. Boumeester. 2017. The Impact of Earthquakes on the Intention to Move: Fight or Flight? Journal of Environmental Psychology 54: 38–49. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jayachandran, Seema. 2006. Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries. Journal of Political Economy 114: 538–75. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kabir, Mohammad Ehsanul, Silvia Serrao-Neumann, Peter Davey, Moazzem Hossain, and Md Touhidul Alam. 2018. Drivers and Temporality of Internal Migration in the Context of Slow-Onset Natural Hazards: Insights from North-West Rural Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 31: 617–26. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kahn, Matthew E. 2005. The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions. Review of Economics and Statistics 87: 271–84. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kalin, Walter. 2008. Displacement Caused by the Effects of Climate Change: Who Will Be Affected and What Are the Gaps in the Normative Framework for Their Protection? Brookings. Available online: https://www.brookings.edu/research/displacement-caused-by-the-effects-of-climate-change-who-will-be-affected-andwhat-are-the-gaps-in-the-normative-framework-for-their-protection/ (accessed on 13 October 2023).
- Kallio, Kirsi Pauliina, and James Riding. 2023. Where Is Climate Asylum? Fennia 201. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Karimi, Syafruddin. 2017. Return migration after the 30 September 2009 earthquake in West Sumatra, Indonesia. Journal of Asian Development 3: 144–55. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kelley, Colin P., Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager, and Yochanan Kushnir. 2015. Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112: 3241–46. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kim, Hyun, and David W. Marcouiller. 2017. Mitigating Flood Risk and Enhancing Community Resilience to Natural Disasters: Plan Quality Matters. Environmental Hazards 17: 397–417. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kleemans, Marieke. 2015. Migration Choice under Risk and Liquidity Constraints. Paper presented at the AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, July 26–28. [Google Scholar]
- Kniveton, Dominic, Kerstin Schmidt-Verkerk, Christopher D. Smith, and Richard Black. 2009. Climate Change and Migration. In IOM Migration Research Series. New York: United Nations. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kniveton, Dominic, Kerstin Schmidt-Verkerk, Christopher Smith, and Richard Black. 2008. Climate Change and Migration: Improving Methodologies to Estimate Flows. MRS No.33. Geneva: International Organization for Migration (IOM). [Google Scholar]
- Krämer, Walter. 2014. Kahneman, D. (2011): Thinking, Fast and Slow. Statistical Papers 55: 915. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kwiliński, Aleksy, Oleksii Lyulyov, Tetyana Pimonenko, Henryk Dźwigoł, Rafis Abazov, and Denys Pudryk. 2022. International Migration Drivers: Economic, Environmental, Social, and Political Effects. Sustainability 14: 6413. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Laczko, Frank, and Christine Aghazarm. 2009. Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence. Geneva: International Orzanization of Migration (IOM). [Google Scholar]
- Le Ha, Phan, Asiyah Kumpoh, Keith Wood, Rosmawijah Jawawi, and Hardimah Said. 2021. Globalisation, Education, and Reform in Brunei Darussalam. Berlin: Springer Nature. [Google Scholar]
- Leighton, Michelle. 2016. Desertification and Migration. Governing Global Desertification. London: Ashgate, pp. 63–78. [Google Scholar]
- Lilleør, Helene Bie, and Katleen Van Den Broeck. 2011. Economic Drivers of Migration and Climate Change in LDCs. Global Environmental Change 21: S70–81. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lonergan, Steve. 1998. The role of environmental degradation in population displacement. Environmental Change and Security Project Report 4: 5–15. [Google Scholar]
- Mallick, Bishawjit, and Benjamin Etzold. 2015. Environment, Migration, and Adaptation: Evidence and of Climate Change in Bangladesh. Dhaka: AH Development Publishing House. [Google Scholar]
- Mallick, Bishawjit, Bayes Ahmed, and Joachim Vogt. 2017. Living with the Risks of Cyclone Disasters in the South-Western Coastal Region of Bangladesh. Environments 4: 13. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Marchiori, Luca, Jean-François Maystadt, and Ingmar Schumacher. 2012. The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 63: 355–74. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Marchiori, Luca, Patrice Pieretti, and Benteng Zou. 2015. Immigration, Occupational Choice and Public Employment. DEM Discussion Paper Series 14–15. Luxembourg: Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg. [Google Scholar]
- Mastrorillo, Marina, Rachel Licker, Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra, Giorgio Fagiolo, Lyndon D. Estes, and Michael Oppenheimer. 2016. The Influence of Climate Variability on Internal Migration Flows in South Africa. Global Environmental Change 39: 155–69. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mbaye, Linguère Mously. 2017. Supporting Communities Under Migration Pressure: The Role of Opportunities, Information, and Resilience to Shocks. In Ideas to Inform International Cooperation on Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. Convened by M. McAuliffe and M. Klein Solomon. Geneva: IOM. [Google Scholar]
- McGranahan, Gordon, Deborah Balk, and Bridget J. Anderson. 2007. The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones. Environment and Urbanization 19: 17–37. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- McLeman, Robert, and François Gemenne, eds. 2018. Routledge Handbook of Environmental Migration and Displacement. London: Routledge. [Google Scholar]
- Mendelsohn, Robert O., and Ariel Dinar. 2009. Climate change and agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation an Distributional Effects. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. [Google Scholar]
- Mendelsohn, Robert O., Ariel Dinar, and Larry Williams. 2006. The Distributional Impact of ClimateChange on Rich and Poor Countries. Environment and Development Economics 11: 1–20. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. 2004. Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach. Journal of Political Economy 112: 725–53. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Missirian, Anouch, and Wolfram Schlenker. 2017. Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations. Science 358: 1610–14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Miyan, M. Alimullah. 2015. Droughts in Asian Least Developed Countries: Vulnerability and sustainability. Weather and Climate Extremes 7: 8–23. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mollah, Tanjinul Hoque, and Jannatul Ferdaush. 2015. Riverbank erosion, population migration and rural vulnerability in Bangladesh (A case study on Kazipur Upazila at Sirajgonj District). Environment and Ecology Research 3: 125–31. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Morduch, Jonathan. 1995. Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing. Journal of Economic Perspectives 9: 103–14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Morrow, Betty H. 2009. Risk Behavior and Risk Communication: Synthesis and Expert Interviews. Final report for the NOAA Coastal Service Center. Washington, DC: SocResearch Miami. [Google Scholar]
- Mueller, Valerie, Clark Gray, and Katrina Kosec. 2014. Heat Stress Increases Long-Term Human Migration in Rural Pakistan. Nature Climate Change 4: 182–85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Munshi, Kaivan. 2003. Networks in the modern Economy: Mexican migrants in the U. S. labor market. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118: 549–99. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Myers, Norman. 2002. Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon of the 21st Century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 357: 609–13. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Neumann, Kathleen, Diana Sietz, Henk Hilderink, Peter Janssen, Marcel Kok, and Han van Dijk. 2015. Environmental Drivers of Human Migration in Drylands—A Spatial Picture. Applied Geography 56: 116–26. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Nordås, Ragnhild, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. 2007. Climate change and conflict. Political Geography 26: 627–38. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Paul, Bimal Kanti. 2005. Evidence against disaster-induced migration: The 2004 tornado in north-central Bangladesh. Disasters 29: 370–85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Pavel, Tanvir, Syed Hasan, Nafisa Halim, and Pallab Mozumder. 2018. Natural hazards and internal migration: The role of transient versus permanent shocks. SSRN Electronic Journal. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Penning-Rowsell, Edmund C., Edward P. Evans, Jim W. Hall, and Alistair G. L. Borthwick. 2013. From flood science to flood policy: The Foresight Future Flooding project seven years on. Foresight 15: 190–210. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Perch-Nielsen, Sabine, Michèle B. Bättig, and Dieter Imboden. 2008. Exploring the link between climate change and migration. Climatic Change 91: 375–93. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Piguet, Etienne. 2010. Linking Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Migration: A Methodological Overview. Climate Change 1: 517–24. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Piguet, Etienne, and Frank Laczko. 2014. People on the Move in a Changing Climate. The Regional Impact of Environmental Change on Migration. Dordrecht: Springer. [Google Scholar]
- Piguet, Etienne, Antoine Pecoud, and Paul de Guchteneire. 2011. Migration and Climate Change: An Overview. Refugee Survey Quarterly 30: 1–23. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Poncelet, Alice, François Gemenne, Marco Martiniello, and Hassan Bousetta. 2010. A country made for disasters: Environmental vulnerability and forced migration in Bangladesh. In Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability. New York: Springer, pp. 211–22. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Reuveny, Rafael. 2008. Ecomigration and Violent Conflict: Case Studies and Public Policy Implications. Human Ecology 36: 1–13. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Robalino, Juan, José Jimenez, and Adriana Chacón. 2015. The effect of Hydro-Meteorological emergencies on internal migration. World Development 67: 438–48. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Roncoli, Carla, Keith Ingram, and Paul Kirshen. 2001. The Costs and Risks of Coping with Drought: Livelihood Impacts and Farmers’ Responses in Burkina Faso. Climate Research 19: 119–32. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Rose, Elaina. 2001. Ex ante and ex post labor response to risk in a low-income area. Journal of Development Economics 64: 371–88. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio, and Krister Sandberg. 2009. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Disasters 33: 591–607. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Scheffran, Juergen, and Antonella Battaglini. 2010. Climate and conflicts: The security risks of global warming. Regional Environmental Change 11: 27–39. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sen, Amartya. 1982. Equality of what? In Choice, Welfare and Measurement. Edited by A. K. Sen. Oxford: Blackwell, pp. 353–69. [Google Scholar]
- Shakya, K. 2016. Earthquake: Impact on Nepalese economy and women. Lowland Technology International 18: 75–82. Available online: https://cot.unhas.ac.id/journals/index.php/ialt_lti/article/view/485 (accessed on 15 September 2023).
- Shakya, Shishir, Subuna Basnet, and Jayash Paudel. 2022. Natural Disasters and Labor Migration: Evidence From Nepal’s Earthquake. World Development 151: 105748. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Smith, Keith. 1996. Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. London: Routledge. [Google Scholar]
- Spitzer, Yannay, Gaspare Tortorici, and Ariell Zimran. 2020. International Migration Responses to Modern Europe’s Most Destructive Earthquake: Messina and Reggio Calabria, 1908. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Stern, Nicholas. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change. American Economic Review 98: 1–37. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Thomas, Adelle, April Karen Baptiste, Rosanne Martyr-Koller, Patrick Pringle, and Kevon Rhiney. 2020. Climate Change and Small Island Developing States. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 45: 1–27. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tiwari, Smriti, and Paul Winters. 2019. Liquidity Constraints and Migration: Evidence From Indonesia. International Migration Review 53: 254–82. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tol, Richard S. J., Thomas E. Downing, Onno J. Kuik, and Joel B. Smith. 2004. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts. Global Environmental Change 14: 259–72. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Townsend, Robert. 1994. Risk and Insurance in Village India. Econometrica 62: 539–91. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- U.K. Government Office for Science. 2011. Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change: Future Challenges and Opportunities; Final Project Report. London: Government Office for Science.
- VanderGeest, Kees. 2011. North-South Migration in Ghana: What Role for the Environment? International Migration 49: e69–e94. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Xiang, Biao, and Ninna Nyberg Sørensen. 2021. SHOCK MOBILITY: Long-Term Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown. Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies. Available online: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26348 (accessed on 12 September 2023).
- Zickgraf, Caroline. 2021. Climate change, slow onset events and human mobility: Reviewing the evidence. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 50: 21–30. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zickgraf, Caroline, and Nathalie Perrin. 2016. Immobile and trapped populations. In The Atlas of Environmental Migration. Edited by F. Gemenne, D. Ionesco and D. Mokhnacheva. New York: Routledge. [Google Scholar]
Temporary | Permanent | International | Internal | Forced | Voluntary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
The fast-onset shocks such as floods, storms, or earthquakes lead to temporary migration. | Slow-onset climatic events such as desertification and sea level rise lead to permanent climate-induced migration in most cases. | International migration is the most challenging due to its cost. Some studies found that environmental shocks have a positive effect on international migration while others found that they have no effect or even a negative one. | The most possible type of happening. Some Studies found that environmental shocks, even slow or fast, mostly increase internal migration. | Fast-time onset shocks mostly lead to forced migration internally. | Gradual climate change and Slow-onset shocks are more connected to this kind of migration. |
Research Gap (Issue) | Future Work |
---|---|
| More empirical work without passing through the channels of this relation (qualitative work) |
| More empirical work includes gender and environmentally induced migration especially into/to EU countries. |
| More empirical analysis and case studies into the EU to investigate the determinates of Environmentally induced migration decisions and their channels, specifically in the case of immobility. |
| More analysis into EU countries to explain the heterogeneity of migration responses in terms of other possible causing factors such as gender, wealth, human capital, financial capital, health, and age. |
| Deep empirical work and case studies into the EU countries considering the self-selection base and trying to deal with the endogeneity problem. |
| More micro-level academic work to determine the case of households of specific EU cities/countries in terms of agricultural/rural and non-agriculture/ urban places. |
| More diverse spatial studies explain Environmentally induced migration as a kind of mobility from one place to another, especially the neglected small, inner, and developing areas in EU countries. |
| More case studies into the EU to include the effect of more adverse environmental change with increased frequency over time and how households respond to incremental shocks. |
| The lack of data and models in the EU motivates us to enhance future estimations of environmental-induced migrants and their characteristics with a higher level of certainty. |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2024 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Moawad, D. Does Environmental Change Affect Migration Especially into the EU? Soc. Sci. 2024, 13, 160. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13030160
Moawad D. Does Environmental Change Affect Migration Especially into the EU? Social Sciences. 2024; 13(3):160. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13030160
Chicago/Turabian StyleMoawad, Dina. 2024. "Does Environmental Change Affect Migration Especially into the EU?" Social Sciences 13, no. 3: 160. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13030160