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Open AccessArticle

Simulating Performance Risk for Lighting Retrofit Decisions

Philips Research North America, Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510, USA
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Academic Editor: Richard Mistrick
Buildings 2015, 5(2), 650-667;
Received: 2 February 2015 / Revised: 21 May 2015 / Accepted: 22 May 2015 / Published: 28 May 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advancements in Daylighting in Buildings)
In building retrofit projects, dynamic simulations are performed to simulate building performance. Uncertainty may negatively affect model calibration and predicted lighting energy savings, which increases the chance of default on performance-based contracts. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop a simulation-based method that can analyze lighting performance risk in lighting retrofit decisions. The model uses a surrogate model, which is constructed by adaptively selecting sample points and generating approximation surfaces with fast computing time. The surrogate model is a replacement of the computation intensive process. A statistical method is developed to generate extreme weather profile based on the 20-year historical weather data. A stochastic occupancy model was created using actual occupancy data to generate realistic occupancy patterns. Energy usage of lighting, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is simulated using EnergyPlus. The method can evaluate the influence of different risk factors (e.g., variation of luminaire input wattage, varying weather conditions) on lighting and HVAC energy consumption and lighting electricity demand. Probability distributions are generated to quantify the risk values. A case study was conducted to demonstrate and validate the methods. The surrogate model is a good solution for quantifying the risk factors and probability distribution of the building performance. View Full-Text
Keywords: risk; lighting; retrofit; simulation; EnergyPlus; surrogate model risk; lighting; retrofit; simulation; EnergyPlus; surrogate model
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Hu, J.; Shen, E.; Gu, Y. Simulating Performance Risk for Lighting Retrofit Decisions. Buildings 2015, 5, 650-667.

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